MLB Best Bets for Friday, May 1: Riding the Run Lines

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Published: Fri May 01, 2026, 12:09 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Check out where there is value to be had on the diamond on Friday night, as our MLB analyst dished out his MLB best bets, picks and analysis.

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Baltimore Orioles logo
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New York Yankees logo

Baltimore Orioles

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New York Yankees

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See Picks & Statistics For The Game

Happy Friday, folks! There's plenty of exciting matchups on the diamond to look forward to today, and I've narrowed down a pair of games that I believe have a some strong value.

Let's check out my MLB best bets for Friday, May 1.

MLB Best Bets for Friday, May 1

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

There's a lot to feel good about in the Baltimore Orioles dugout after taking two of three against the Houston Astros. While that's a strong result, they'll have a quick turnaround against one of the hottest offenses in baseball, the New York Yankees.

Furthermore, the Orioles are coming off a doubleheader on Thursday, which makes this situation even more difficult. And to add even more fuel to an already blazing fire, they'll have to face right-hander Will Warren, who's been great off the bump this season.

Through six starts and 31.1 innings, Warren owns a 2.59 ERA and a 2.68 xFIP. He's also posted a 49% ground ball rate, a 23.3% strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 6% barrel rate.

On the other side, Baltimore hasn't officially announced a starter, but left-hander Cade Povich is expected to join the team and could fill the open spot in the rotation with Trevor Rogers dealing with the flu.

If it is Povich, it's worth noting he's appeared in two games this season, including one start, allowing three earned runs on nine hits with seven strikeouts and three walks across 12.1 innings.

We've also seen a much larger sample size from the southpaw over the past couple of seasons, and the results haven't been encouraging. He posted a 5.20 ERA in 2024 and followed that up with a 5.21 mark the next year.

The Yankees have been obliterating lefties over the past couple of weeks, leading the league with a .305 ISO and a .962 OPS. They also rank second in wRC+ (163) during that span, trailing only the Cubs.

Bet: Yankees Run Line -1.5 (+120)

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Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners

Julio Rodriguez

After taking two of three in Minnesota against the Twins, the Seattle Mariners head back to the Pacific Northwest to host the Kansas City Royals.

Right-hander Bryan Woo gets the nod for Seattle, and he'll be glad to be back pitching at T-Mobile Park.

Four of his six starts have come on the road, and his numbers in those outings haven't been great. In his two home starts, though, he allowed two runs and four hits in both games. He posted a 3.50 xFIP against the Rangers most recently, and had a 2.54 xFIP against Cleveland in his other home start to open the year.

His overall xFIP sits at 4.52, largely due to his struggles on the road and his inability to generate grounders consistently. Luckily for him, in addition to being back home, the wind is blowing in at the ballpark, which could help limit some of that potential damage.

Woo is still posting a 3.86 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, a .265 BABIP, and is walking just 1.5 batters per nine innings.

On the other side, there's plenty to be concerned about with Kansas City starting pitcher Cole Ragans. The left-hander has posted a 5.00 ERA, 5.42 expected ERA and a 6.06 FIP through six starts. He's also walking six batters per nine innings, owns a HR/FB rate north of 21% and an astonishing 17% barrel rate.

Over the past two weeks, the Mariners' bats have picked up against lefties, producing a .216 ISO and a 117 wRC+ in that span.

Let's look for Woo to regain some confidence on familiar ground and for Seattle's bats to stay hot.

Bet: Mariners Run Line -1.5 (+150)

MLB Best Bets:

MLB record: 36-32-1 (+2.13 units)

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Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

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