NL MVP Odds: Olson Emerges as Ohtani’s Top Challenger

In Wednesday's 3-1 loss to the Seattle Mariners, Matt Olson was held hitless as the Atlanta Braves were silenced by Bryan Woo and a trio of Seattle relievers.

It was a rare quiet day for the Braves, who rank first or second in MLB in runs per game (5.6, first), batting average (.270, second), and home runs (second).

That proficiency at the plate has driven a hot start for Atlanta under new manager Walt Weiss. Entering this weekend's blockbuster series with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the 26-12 Braves are tied with the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs for the best record in the majors. And even after losing two of three in Seattle, Atlanta is eight games out in front in the NL East.

Olson Powering Braves' Big Start

A big part of that early success is Olson, who was held hitless for just the sixth time this season in Wednesday's loss.

Through 38 games, the veteran first baseman is hitting .301 with 15 doubles, 13 home runs, 33 RBI, 35 runs scored, and a 1.055 OPS. He leads MLB in doubles and runs, ranks in the top five in homers, RBI, and OPS, and is one of three .300 hitters for the Braves.

As a result of his hot start, Olson is now a top contender for National League Most Valuable Player, according to top online sportsbooks such as Lucky Rebel. As it stands, it may take an exceptional season for someone to keep Shohei Ohtani from a third straight NL MVP win. But Olson could have the consolation of coming in second if Ohtani takes the trophy yet again.

Where Does Matt Olson Rank in the NL MVP Race?

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Thursday, May 7, 2026.

Ohtani has performed below his usual standards at the plate, hitting only .248 with six homers and 15 RBI. He has homered just once in 19 games and is just 2 of 19 (.105) thus far in May.

However, Ohtani remains a heavy NL MVP favorite. His ERA currently sits under 1.00, and his bat may and likely will heat up before long.

Olson is one of the league's best defensive first basemen, if not the best. Unfortunately, that won't carry the same weight as Ohtani's two-way prowess. That said, he is on pace to make a serious run at topping his career-best 2023 season.

That year, he led the majors in homers (54) and RBI (139) and set career highs in homers, RBI, batting average (.283), and runs scored (127). He finished fourth in NL MVP voting behind teammate Ronald Acuna Jr., Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, his predecessor in Atlanta.

Currently, Olson is on pace for 55 homers, 140 RBI, and 149 runs if he plays all 162 games, which he has done every season with the Braves.

Can Olson Stay Hot and Close in on Ohtani?

Can Olson keep up his hot start? He has homered in five consecutive series and nine of 12 series this season. Additionally, he has at least one extra-base hit in 25 of 38 games (65.8%) and has not gone consecutive games without an extra-base hit since early April.

However, he has never hit above .250 in consecutive seasons, has eclipsed a .275 batting average just once, and is a career .258 hitter. Maintaining a high level of consistency has not been his strong suit either. To date, he has never hit .300+ in consecutive months in his MLB career.

But even though career numbers forecast an eventual drop-off of some degree, Olson may buck his history this season. After hitting .302 with nine homers and 27 RBI in April, he is hitting .333 with four homers and five RBI in six games in May.

With Ronald Acuna Jr. on the 10-day injured list with a strained hamstring, the next week bears watching for Olson and the Braves. After their series with the Dodgers, Atlanta returns home to face the Cubs and Red Sox.

Who Will Matt Olson Face in May?

• at Los Angeles Dodgers (May 8-10)
• vs. Chicago Cubs (May 12-14)
• vs. Boston Red Sox (May 15-17)
• at Miami Marlins (May 18-21)
• vs. Washington Nationals (May 22-24)
• at Boston Red Sox (May 26-28)
• at Cincinnati Reds (May 29-31)

Of the teams that he will face, only the Dodgers, Cubs, and Marlins rank in the top half of the league in OBA, and only the Dodgers, Cubs, and Red Sox rank in the top half of the league in team ERA. So, this May tear may extend past this week, which could see his NL MVP odds shorten.

Whatever happens, few hitters in the league can match Olson's prolific production to this point, and it is fueling Atlanta's return to prominence after a tough 2025. If he can keep it up for the duration, a memorable season could be ahead for both he and the Braves, even if MVP honors prove to be beyond his reach.