Let’s See Some Runs: Expert Picks in the MLB Today
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Wed Oct 07, 2026, 9:00 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Welcome to my MLB expert picks for Wednesday, Oct. 7! We're heading to Chicago for an afternoon total before taking a plus-money swing on the Yankees to keep their season alive in the Bronx.
October baseball doesn't give us many comfortable bets. Managers can change the pitching plan in a hurry, and one swing can flip everything. But I really like two prices on Wednesday's slate.
Before we dive into the best MLB picks today, check out our MLB Picks Page and MLB Odds Page.
MLB Expert Picks Today (Oct. 7)
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Over 8 Runs (+100)
- New York Yankees -1.5 (+145) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The White Sox have a chance to knock out Cleveland, while New York needs a response after dropping the first two games against Tampa Bay. These are different bets, but the price is driving both decisions.
Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction Today
We'll start on the South Side, where Cleveland is trying to avoid elimination against a White Sox team that's already put itself in position to advance.
Daniel Espino is expected to open for the Guardians, while Sean Newcomb gets the ball for Chicago. I'm not counting on either pitcher to work deep into this game, which means we could see both managers digging into their options pretty early.
That's where this total gets interesting.
Guardians vs. White Sox MLB odds
Odds via BetOnline.ag, an industry leader in the sports betting world:
- Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-202)
- Cleveland Guardians moneyline (+104)
- Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+175)
- Chicago White Sox moneyline (-115)
- Over/Under 8 (+100, -120)
Best Bet: Guardians vs. White Sox Over 8 (+100) | BetOnline.ag
My first MLB best bet today is Guardians vs. White Sox over 8 runs.
Cleveland's pitching plan doesn't exactly make me want to sprint toward the under. Espino is opening, but what happens after that? Tanner Bibee is coming off a down year. Can Joey Cantillo be trusted with a postseason assignment of this magnitude? Foster Griffin pitched well down the stretch, but I think he ran a little fortunate.
There are options. I'm just not in love with them.
On Chicago's side, Newcomb has been effective in relief. I'll give him that. But I'm expecting a brief outing, potentially no more than a couple of innings, before the White Sox start mixing and matching.
A string of pitching changes doesn't automatically mean runs. Managers can find favorable matchups and shut an offense down. But I'm not looking at two starters I expect to take over this game for six or seven innings, either.
The White Sox have shown they can score, and Cleveland is scrappy enough to contribute. We don't need one lineup to carry the entire ticket.
More importantly, I like the number.
We're getting 8 at even money, not 8.5. Eight runs gives us a push, and we need nine to cash. That half-run matters, especially when you're trying to squeeze value out of a short playoff slate.
I'm not predicting some ridiculous 12-10 game. A little traffic, a timely extra-base hit, and a few crooked innings could get us there.
Give me Guardians vs. White Sox over 8 runs.
Yankees vs. Rays Prediction Today
The Yankees' offense has been a one-man-wrecking crew–and that's not really a good thing.
Ben Rice hit two home runs in the 5-2 Game 2 loss, providing all of New York's scoring. After finishing the regular season with 41 homers, he's already added four through four postseason games. Somebody else has to join the party.
Rays vs. Yankees MLB odds
Odds via BetOnline.ag, an industry leader in the sports betting world:
- Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-165)
- Tampa Bay Rays moneyline (+140)
- New York Yankees -1.5 (+145)
- New York Yankees moneyline (-155)
- Over/Under 7 (-122, +102)
Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (+145) | BetOnline.ag
My second MLB pick today is Yankees -1.5 at +145.
Nick Martinez has been good for Tampa Bay. A 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP across 180 regular-season innings deserve respect. This isn't a case of finding a bad pitcher and blindly betting against him.
But I do think there's room for some regression.
Martinez struck out just 15.1% of hitters during the regular season and surrendered 13 home runs to left-handed bats. He's going to allow contact, and New York has a hitter in Rice who's making an awful lot of that contact count right now.
The Yankees need more than Rice, obviously, but it helps that Rice is hotter than the sun right now. I'm expecting Aaron Boone to make some lineup changes after a rough first two games, and I'm betting on New York finding enough offense at home to make this interesting.
On the mound, Max Fried doesn't have an easy strikeout matchup. Tampa Bay finished the regular season with an 18% strikeout rate against lefties, the lowest in baseball. But Fried doesn't need to rack up strikeouts to pitch well.
According to Baseball Savant, he allowed a 2.4% barrel rate and a 29.8% hard-hit rate this season. That's the part of his profile I'm leaning on. The Rays will put the ball in play, but Fried can keep that contact from turning into serious damage.
Desperation alone isn't a betting edge. Being down 2-0 doesn't magically fix a lineup. But New York was a productive offense overall this year, and I'm willing to back a response rather than assume the first two games tell the entire story.
At +145, I like the return for asking the Yankees to win by at least two runs.
Give me New York -1.5 to keep its season alive.
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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