Cubs vs. Phillies: Schwarber’s Revenge | June 10, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Tue Jun 10, 2025, 6:03 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Cubs vs. Phillies: Kyle Schwarber is back in a prime spot tonight, and we are getting involved. He rates highly, draws a great matchup, and has the pitch-specific edge we look for. When Schwarber is set up like this, I have to fire.
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Last Month: 83-142 (+8.51u)
Last Week: 11-41 (-13.54u)
Cubs vs. Phillies Best Bet – June 10
Will Kyle Schwarber find success off Colin Rea this evening?
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Today, we are backing my muse, Kyle Schwarber.
He is the fifth-highest rated hitter on the day, according to Batters-Box. While his elite-level road trends are stronger, he has still been excellent at home—posting a .235 average and a .929 OPS. In his last 10 home games with an elite rating, he has cleared his total bases prop six times. Across 54 home games with that same elite rating, he has a 55% hit rate, a 25% home run rate, and has gone over his bases prop 42% of the time. You could argue the price is not ideal, but I believe it is more than acceptable.
Rea vs. Schwarber
Today, he faces Cubs starter Colin Rea, who carries a poor overall rating. His matchup metrics—ISO and strikeout rate—are both weak. Opposing hitters this season have a .276 batting average, .439 slugging percentage, and a .767 OPS against him. Rea is allowing 4.69 hits and 1.5 extra-base hits per game across 13 starts this season.
Rea throws nearly 50% fastballs. I love backing hitters who crush fastballs and fading starters who lean heavily on four-seamers. Why? Because Schwarber owns a run value of +12 against fastballs, per Baseball Savant. He pairs that with a .310 expected batting average, .753 expected slugging, and a .500 expected weighted on-base average. He is far and away the best fastball hitter on the Phillies roster. That fastball is Rea's second-best pitch.
His best pitch, according to FanGraphs, is the cutter. And once again, Schwarber sits atop the list against it. He has a +3 run value, a .500 batting average, a .722 slugging percentage, and a .545 wOBA against cutters.
I have to back the lefty tonight. He grades out well against the rest of Rea's pitch mix, and everything else is pointing to go. We are here for the Schwarber revenge narrative against his old squad.
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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