Brewers vs. Dodgers: Game 4 Props | October 17, 2025

After being completely misled on who would follow Aaron Ashby last night, the Los Angeles Dodgers fell short of going over 2.5 runs in the first five innings. However, they eventually scored three runs in the sixth. Today, the Dodgers look to complete the sweep of the Brewers at home. I am running back yesterday's prop because Chad Patrick is expected to open tonight, with left-hander Jose Quintana likely to follow.

Tip: For the die-hard first five team total bettors, only take this approach if you are watching the game. Feel the rhythm and momentum. If a team falls short of going over its first five team total but has had multiple scoring opportunities, consider taking its live first seven team total or a wager on it to score in the sixth inning. This is not "chasing." The sixth inning is the second-highest scoring frame behind the first, and you are getting favorable odds. The first seven team total typically only requires one more run in the next two innings.

Milwaukee's Arms

Patrick has struggled on the road this season, owning a 4.30 ERA and a .265 opponent batting average. He has also had issues against left-handed hitters away from home, allowing a .323 average with a .356 SLG and .267 wOBA. With Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman likely at the top of the order, there is a strong chance he faces both in the first inning, which could set up a productive start for Los Angeles.

As for Quintana, his recent form has been poor. Over his last five outings, he holds a 6.46 ERA, 5.15 xERA, and 4.99 xFIP. Opponents have recorded a .263 xBA, .432 xSLG, and .366 xwOBA. In his last five road starts, he owns a 3.67 ERA but an expected 4.32 ERA. Those games came against the Cubs, Rangers, Reds, Braves, and Nationals—three of which scored at least two runs against him.

Dodgers' Offense

The Dodgers have crushed left-handed pitching at home this season, ranking inside the top ten in most major offensive categories. Over the last four weeks, they have posted a wRC+ above 105, an OPS above .727, an ISO above .270, and a walk rate near 10%. They should match up well against the two southpaws Milwaukee plans to use.

Jose Quintana is now a potential starter in Game 4, manager Pat Murphy says, with Jacob Misiorowski expected to be the bulk inning pitcher today in Game 3.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) October 16, 2025

The Dodgers lineup, stacked with right-handed hitters, should handle the Brewers veteran well. Quintana has struggled all season against righties. His ERA against them is 3.31, but his expected ERA sits at 5.34 with a 4.78 xFIP. Over his last 60 faced, he carries a 6.28 ERA, 5.43 xERA, and 4.24 xFIP, while allowing 42.5% hard contact and a 15% barrel rate. Right-handed bats have posted a .307 xBA, .544 xSLG, and .374 xwOBA against him.

Five Dodgers hitters are batting .250 or better in their last 30 at-bats versus left-handers. During that stretch, four have an OBP of .333 or higher, a SLG of .481 or better, and an OPS of .814 or better. The entire lineup is producing at least 33.3% hard contact, making this another strong matchup for Los Angeles.

At plus money for over 2.5 runs, I am taking this play again, confident the Dodgers will put their foot on the gas and continue their push toward the NL Pennant.