Angels vs. Yankees: Aaron Judge Value Plays | June 16, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Mon Jun 16, 2025, 5:58 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Angels vs. Yankees: Aaron Judge's bases prop is flashing major value today, trading well above its usual range. His matchup against Jose Soriano is ideal, and his recent cold stretch only adds to the appeal. With elite ratings at home and strong splits against Soriano's sinker, this is a must-bet prop.
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Last Month: 78-153 (-4.77u)
Last Week: 18-40 (-2.32u)
Angels vs. Yankees Best Bet – June 16
Aaron Judge returns home after a sluggish series versus the Red Sox
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Why? Why are Aaron Judge's props so high in odds today? Some may say the books know something. Others may call it insane value that you simply have to be on. That is where I land. This is a must-bet prop. Judge's bases prop should always fall in the -110 to -130 range. Anything at plus money is a gift.
Now, did I just look at the price and blindly bet it? No. This matchup checks every box.
After back-to-back 0-for-4 games against the Red Sox, Judge finds himself in a strong spot against Angels right hander Jose Soriano. Per Batters-Box season ratings, Soriano owns a poorly rated matchup in wOBA, hard contact, and strikeout percentage. He is allowing nearly 40% hard contact to opposing hitters. The ground ball rate is elite, which is a slight concern.
There is not a single pitch in Soriano's arsenal rated above league average as a whole number. He throws his sinker 51% of the time. Judge owns a run value of 11 against sinkers, with a .561 batting average, .854 slugging percentage, and .636 wOBA across a 135-pitch sample. Against the rest of Soriano's arsenal, Judge also posts strong numbers.
The Trend is Your Friend
The Yankees captain enters today with the third-highest rating on Batters-Box. In 98 elite-rated home games, he records a hit 70% of the time, two hits 37%, goes over this prop 59%, and homers nearly 35% of the time.
This is a spot I have to bet. Aaron Judge at +130 for his bases prop, at home, after going 0-for-8 in his last two games—it is a must.
Best Bet: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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