Angels vs Padres: Odds & Predictions | May 12, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Mon May 12, 2025, 5:35 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Angels vs Padres: Michael King has been extremely impressive to start the 2025 season. Today, he gets a golden matchup against a free-swinging Angels lineup that leads the league in strikeout percentage. With plus money on an alternate line, I am backing King to pile up punch outs at home.
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Last Month: 94-161-2 (-5.48u)
Last Week: 17-44 (-8.59u)
Angels vs Padres Odds
Are we in for another Michael King masterclass?
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Runline
Angels: +1.5 (-119)
Padres: -1.5 (-101)
Total
Over: 7 (-120)
Under: 7 (+100)
Moneyline
Angels: +177
Padres: -197
Angels vs Padres Best Bet
Today we are riding my long shot Cy Young winner, Michael King, to go over his alternate strikeout prop. I was not going to pay -150 for over 6.5 strikeouts, so I bumped it up to 7.5 for plus money. King is coming off a decent outing against the Yankees last week—two runs on three hits, including a home run. He also issued two walks while striking out just three hitters over six innings.
The Padres' right-hander enters today with the third-best pitcher rating according to Batters-Box.com. He owns the highest average hitter matchup strikeout percentage on the slate at 36%. For context, pitchers with a 32% or higher average matchup strikeout percentage go over 5.5 strikeouts 60% of the time. When King is in an elite strikeout matchup, he goes over 6.5 strikeouts 60% of the time and over 7.5 in 40% of those games. That is based on a 20-game sample size. At home, those numbers improve. In 14 elite home matchups, King goes over 7.5 strikeouts 57% of the time. The 29-year-old has cleared this number in half of his starts this season.
Today he faces an Angels lineup that ranks dead last in strikeout percentage. Eight of their hitters are above the league average in strikeout rate, and four are above the league average in ground ball rate. They have zero hitters with an elite or great rating. Los Angeles holds an "above average" overall team grade on Batters-Box.com, but their plate discipline tells a different story.
I think going from an average outing in the Bronx to facing the least disciplined lineup in baseball is a major upgrade and a real confidence boost. I expect King to surpass this alternate line posted at the best online sportsbooks and possibly flirt with double-digit strikeouts.
Best Bet: Michael King Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+135) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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