Angels vs. Dodgers: Odds & Predictions | May 16, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Fri May 16, 2025, 3:41 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Angels vs. Dodgers: Freddie Freeman is in a smash spot tonight, backed by elite trends and a perfect matchup. The numbers at home are even better, and the opposing pitcher has struggled badly on the road. Everything lines up for the Dodgers' first baseman to deliver.
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Last Month: 196-156-2 (+3.28u)
Last Week: 20-31 (+6.82u)
Angels vs. Dodgers Odds
Will Freddie Freeman shine tonight against the Angels?
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Run Line
Angels: +1.5 (+128)
Dodgers: -1.5 (-148)
Total
Over: 9.5 (-105)
Under: 9.5 (-115)
Moneyline
Angels: +252
Dodgers: -285
Angels vs. Dodgers Best Bet
We are all over Freddie Freeman's props today, as he enters with the third-highest average hitter matchup rating on Batters-Box.com. In 61 elite-rated games, he records a hit 77% of the time, goes over this prop 55% of the time, and hits a home run 19% of the time. At home, it gets even better — in 23 elite home ratings, the Dodgers star records a hit 73% of the time, goes over 1.5 total bases 65% of the time, and leaves the yard 26% of the time.
Today he faces Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz, who owns the second-worst pitcher rating on the slate. He carries a 5.23 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP on the season. On the road, he has really struggled — in four starts, he owns a 6.33 ERA and has allowed opponents to hit .280. On top of that, he has a poor average hitter matchup profile in wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate, and strikeout percentage.
Kochanowicz has faced 14 elite-rated hitters this season. It is a small sample, but they have all performed well:
-
78% recorded a hit
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64% went over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
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57% went over 1.5 total bases
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36% hit a home run
The right-hander throws three pitches, but only one is above league average, per FanGraphs. His fastball, which he uses 25% of the time, is graded at 1.55 — a solid mark. Freeman is crushing fastballs this season, batting .340 with a 1.000 OPS and a 185 wRC+ against them.
I love the price, the matchup, and the trends. I think Freeman is a much better look than someone like Shohei Ohtani, who just hit two home runs last night. I trust the first baseman.
Best Bet: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-118) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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