With pitchers and catchers set to report soon, baseball season is officially back on the brain, making this a perfect window to explore season long player futures. Several early numbers have already popped at Lucky Rebel, and a few immediately stand out as potential regression spots. Before locking anything in, I want to see more books enter the market and compare pricing across the board. That said, Kyle Schwarber and Cal Raleigh both come off career seasons that feel difficult to replicate. Below are two early under leans worth monitoring as the futures board continues to take shape.
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With baseball always on my mind and pitchers and catchers gearing up to report for spring training, now feels like the perfect time to dive into some season long player futures.
Lucky Rebel already has a wide range of odds posted for your favorite players and teams. A few of these immediately caught my eye, but I have not jumped in just yet. I want to see what other books roll out and take the time to compare prices before making any moves.
After coming off a career high season, I am fully expecting some regression from the Phillies slugger. Kyle Schwarber finished 2025 batting .240 with a .928 OPS, crushing a career high 56 home runs and driving in a career high 132 runs. That marked the first time he eclipsed 50 home runs in a season. The most he had hit at any point prior to 2025 was 47 back in 2023. He also had never driven in more than 104 runs before last season.
I am not in love with the current number of 42.5. I wish there was a bit more cushion, but I do like that the under is plus money. Schwarber has only surpassed 42.5 home runs 3 times in his 11 year career, all of which have come over the last 4 seasons. Again, this is just a lean. He could go off for another 50 home run season, or he could settle back into the low 40s. Just a lean for now.
Another massive regression spot after a monster 2025 season. Cal Raleigh is coming off an MVP caliber year, and I think taking the under on his hits at +125 might be the move. After posting a career high 147 hits in 2025, which was 27 more than his previous career high, regression feels overdue. Prior to 2025, Raleigh recorded 78 hits through 119 games in 2022, 119 hits in 145 games in 2023, and 120 hits in 153 games in 2024. Is that the version of the Big Dumper we should expect, or is last season the new standard moving forward?
Raleigh is notorious for striking out at a high rate. Over the last 3 years, his strikeout rate has hovered around 28%. In the second half of last season, the Seattle catcher saw that number spike to 34%. He hit 27 home runs in the second half, accounting for nearly 44% of his total hits. That does not feel sustainable. Remove those home runs, and he finished with just 35 hits in the second half. He has never been a high average hitter. Prior to 2025, his best season at the plate came in 2023, when he hit .232.
This is just a lean for now. I may opt out and play the under on his home runs instead, as that feels like an even clearer regression spot after he broke the record for most home runs by a catcher and a switch hitter.
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