The Oscars 2026: Early Odds & Predictions

Yes, the 98th Academy awards are still a ways off. However, along the way are several other awards ceremonies. The preceding events usually end up indicating which film will take home the honours in each major category. This means the only real time to find value in wagering over the golden baldies is now.

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The Oscars: The 98th Academy Awards

There are numerous contentions over the claim of the namesake of the Academy Awards, whatever the truth, they quickly adopted the moniker officially in 1939 after the newspapers started using it. The awards for excellence in motion pictures has been commonly known as The Oscars ever since. The statuette, officially referred to as the Academy Award of Merit, is handed out annually in several major categories.

BetOnline has propositions in most while having several variables too. More props will be added as the awards near so be sure to check back here.

Will 'One Battle After Another' Win Best Picture?

• Yes (-425)
• No (+265)

Paul Thomas Anderson's scathing modern classic starred one of cinema's brightest stars and still struggled at the box office. Despite the fact that audiences did not fill seats critics still made the film their darling of the year. They quickly forgot Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners' once Leonardo DiCaprio graced their screen as the enigmatic Bob. Chances are this film takes home the statue but perhaps voters remember 'Sinners' or Wagner Moura's 'The Secret Agent' steals the show.

I'm staying away from this one but if you have a strong inclination for 'No' I would say be cautious.

How Many Oscars will 'Hamnet' Win?

• Over 1.5 Oscars (-110)
• Under 1.5 Oscars (-110)

I would take the over here as this film could contend in several categories both major and minor. Acclaimed filmmaker Chloe Zhao co-wrote the screenplay with the book's author, Maggie O'Farrell, and it tell the story of the tragic life of William Shakespeare. Honestly, this film looks so poignant I am afraid to watch it. Zhao could contend for Best Director as well as Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal (William Shakespeare) should be contenders for acting merits.

How Many Oscars Will 'One Battle After Another' Win?

• Over 5.5 Oscars (-130)
• Under 5.5 Oscars (-110)

The Over is juiced for a reason, though DiCaprio's film is very good, it only really has contention in the acting and directing categories. I would say under but I don't have the inclination to place the wager officially. Sean Penn, Teyana Taylor, & Leo should garner votes as well as Paul Thomas Anderson for direction — maybe the screenplay gets votes too? The Over is still a big ask here.

How Many Oscars will 'Sentimental Value' Win?

• Over 1.5 Oscars (-110)
• Under 1.5 Oscars (-130)

This Norwegian film directed by Joachim Trier has been gaining praise since its release at Cannes in May. Foreign films have a difficult time winning outside of the main category. Fortunately, Stellan Skarsgard's participation may get a view more voters to watch their screeners. Voters love dramas and this fits the bill. The film follows a couple during a troubled marriage and the fallout with the adult children. I have yet to see the film so no real lean here.

How Many Oscars will 'Sinners' Win?

• Over 2.5 Oscars (-130)
• Under 2.5 Oscars (-110)

If there is any justice in this universe then 'Sinners' should take home awards in several categories including the technical ones. It is a film I have revisited numerous times since its release and still I find new details in the script, sound design, and acting. Every collaborator is in top form here and the only thing holding Michael B. Jordan's film back is its release date. Ryan Coogler's latest was released in April and voters have become enamoured with other films since. Still, I lean the over here.

Coogler should contend with writing and directing, while there are several actors who should garner votes in their respective categories, including the aforementioned Jordan.

The 2026 Oscars: Best Actor

• Timothee Chalamet 'Marty Supreme' (-110)
• Leonardo DiCaprio 'One Battle After Another' (+230)
• Wagner Moura 'Secret Agent' (+450)
• Ethan Hawke 'Blue Moon'(+500)
• Michael B Jordan 'Sinners' (+2500)
• Joel Edgerton Train 'Dreams' (+3600)
• Daniel Day Lewis 'Anemone' (+6600)
• George Clooney 'Jay Kelly' (+8000)
• Dwayne Johnson 'The Smashing Machine' (+12500)
• Lee Byung-Hun 'No Other Choice' (+12500)
• Jesse Plemons 'Bugonia' (+12500)
• Oscar Isaac 'Frankenstein' (+25000)
• Jeremy Allen White 'Springsteen' (+25000)

He dates influencers, raps under monikers, and he wins awards. If you want to bet this then bet this now. You're not going to get a better number on this. It might not even be playable after Christmas when 'Marty Supreme' comes out. The film has rave reviews, an acclaimed director, Gwyneth Paltrow and Kevin O'Leary (Yes, 'Shark Tank' guy!), and Timothy Chalamalabingbong should take home the Best Actor nod.

The 2026 Oscars: Best Actress

• Jessie Buckley 'Hamnet' (-300)
• Rose Byrne 'If I Had Legs' (+225)
• Renate Reinsve 'Sentiment Value' (+1400)
• Chase Infiniti 'One Battle After Another' (+1400)
• Emma Stone 'Bugonia' (+2000)
• Kate Hudson 'Song Sung Blue' (+3300)
• Cynthia Erivo 'Wicked For Good' (+5000)
• Jennifer Lawerence 'Die My Love' (+7000)

Jessie has this award in the bag.

SPOILERS: She plays a mother who loses her child which inspires her husband to write one of the most important works in the history of civilization. Yeah, voters love this kind of stuff so it is juiced for a reason. 

The 2026 Oscars: Best Picture

• 'One Battle After Another' (-450)
• 'Marty Supreme' (+700)
• 'Sinners' (+700)
• 'Hamnet' (+900)
• 'Sentimental Value' (+2000)
• 'It Was Just an Accident' (+3300)
• 'The Secret Agent' (+5000)
• 'Train Dreams' (+7000)
• 'Bugonia' (+8000)
• 'Frankenstein' (+15000)
• 'Wicked For Good' (+25000)

If you want want to wager a prop here there is only one clear bet to make. Sprinkle on 'Marty Supreme' at those incredible odds. 'One Battle After Another' was a box office flop by executive metrics. 'Marty Supreme' hits theatres during the holiday season and has already gained critical acclaim. If audiences flock to theatres too then voters will easily suffer recency bias and Marty could reign supreme in this category.

The 2026 Oscars: Best Supporting Actor

• Benicio del Toro 'One Battle After Another' (+120)
• Stellan Skarsgard 'Sentimental Value' (+180)
• Sean Penn 'One Battle After Another' (+230)
• Paul Mescal 'Hamnet' (+1000)
• Jacob Elordi 'Frankenstein' (+3000)
• Adam Sandler 'Jay Kelly' (+4000)
• Delroy Lindo 'Sinners' (+5000)
• Jeremy Strong 'Springsteen' (+12000)
• Miles Caton 'Sinners' (+12500)
• Jonathan Bailey 'Wicked: For Good' (+16000)

Fun market here in my opinion. Arguments can be made for the top for candidates. Honestly, if you love movies pick your favourite performance from the quartet and sit back and watch the ceremony.  Benecio was fantastic as Sensei Sergio St. Carlos but the other three were simply equally brilliant in their respective films.

The 2026 Oscars: Best Supporting Actress

• Teyana Taylor 'One Battle After Another' (+135)
• Amy Madigan 'Weapons' (+220)
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas 'Sentimental Value' (+525)
• Ariana Grande 'Wicked: For Good' (+600)
• Elle Fanning 'Sentimental Value' (+1200)
• Wunmi Mosaku 'Sinners' (+1500)
• Glenn Close 'Wake Up Dead Man' (+2800)
• Odessa A'zion 'Marty Supreme' (+2800)
• Regina Hall 'One Battle After Another' (+3300)
• Emily Blunt 'The Smashing Machine' (+7500)
• Gwyneth Paltrow 'Marty Supreme' (+10000)

Another fun market that is actually playable. The field is wide open in my opinion. Taylor was fantastic but her role was very minor. Obviously, characters with limited screen time have won the award before. For example, Anthony Hopkins for his portrayal of Dr. Hannibal Lecter in 1991's 'The Silence of the Lambs.'

For my money? I'm going with Glenn Close for 'Wake Up Dead Man.' She actually shares the infamous distinction of having the most nominations in an acting category without a win. She shares the "honour" with Peter O'Toole. Voters might think this is time to finally honour the screen legend. It wouldn't be disingenuous either. Her performance in Rain Johnson's film was both terrifying and hilarious.

Thanks for Reading!

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