Trash Talker’s Guide to the 2026 Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby Day is almost here. Whether you're hosting a party, heading to a watch bar, or just trying to survive the office pool, you need ammunition. Not picks — ammunition. The kind that lets you confidently talk smack about any horse in the field while sounding like you've been following the Road to the Kentucky Derby since September.

Lucky for you, we here at Betting News, have you covered. A case for and a case against every horse in the 152nd Run for the Roses. Memorize a few, drop them at the right moment, and enjoy being the smartest person in the room on the First Saturday in May.

The 152nd Kentucky Derby goes Saturday, May 2 at 6:57 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock from Churchill Downs in Louisville.

Kentucky Derby Main Field

#1 — RENEGADE (4-1) | Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

The Case For: Todd Pletcher, two-time Derby winner. Irad Ortiz, best jockey in North America. A horse that won the Arkansas Derby by four lengths going away. The pedigree of the connections alone makes Renegade impossible to dismiss.

The Case Against: Post 1. The last horse to win the Derby from the rail was Ferdinand — in 1986. Renegade is a come-from-behind horse who now has to navigate 19 other animals at the break from the worst spot on the track. Irad has never finished in the top three in the Derby. Owner Mike Repole is 0-for-8 in this race, has had the favorite scratch twice on Derby Eve, and now this. The universe keeps saying no.

#2 — ALBUS (30-1) | Trainer: Riley Mott | Jockey: Manny Franco

The Case For: Inside draw and at least the trainer has good bloodlines. Sure he's a bit on the slow side but every race has been getting faster, and the best is yet to come.

The Case Against: He may be getting faster but unless he's going to sprout wings a career best effort may having him chewing dirt from start to finish.

#3 — INTREPIDO (50-1) | Trainer: Jeff Mullins | Jockey: Hector Berrios

The Case For: Stark Contrast scratched to run in the American Turf and Intrepido got the call. Rich Strike got in at the last minute in 2022 and paid $163. Every year someone on the bubble becomes the best story of the day.

The Case Against: He finished 4th by 10 lengths in the worst running of the Santa Anita Derby in recent memory. Unless he's planning to to ride the jet he rode in on around the track, 50-1 seems generous.

#4 — LITMUS TEST (30-1) | Trainer: Bob Baffert | Jockey: Martin Garcia

The Case For: Bob Baffert. Five Derby wins. The man has won this race with horses nobody saw coming. Litmus Test was a Grade 2 winner at two and Baffert doesn't ship horses to Louisville to finish eighth.

The Case Against: He's been beaten by 17 1/4 lengths in his last 2 Kentucky Derby preps. He might be lucky to be within that distance at the end of this race.

#5 — RIGHT TO PARTY (30-1) | Trainer: Kenny McPeek | Jockey: Chris Elliott- SCRATCHED

#6 — COMMANDMENT (6-1) | Trainer: Brad Cox | Jockey: Luis Saez

The Case For: Four wins in a row, capped by the Florida Derby which on paper looks like the top prep circuit this year. Brad Cox won the 2021 Derby with Mandaloun and has three horses in this field. The Into Mischief pedigree has been lethal in the Derby.

The Case Against: This horse loves to site a tactical trip and being toward the inside means he gets to fight all the horses crossing over for prime real estate. How many times do we see a fancied runner get beat by a stable mate. Classic "Other Cox" situation.

#7 — DANON BOURBON (50-1) | Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe | Jockey: Atsuya Nishimura

The Case For: Japan has been killing it around the world and only have a few marquee races left to take down. They've been so close with the likes of Forever Young. In a Kentucky Derby with questionable runners across the board, why can't this one bring the roses home for connections and country?

The Case Against: Forever Young has proven to be a bona fide superstar and he couldn't get it down. Now we're supposed to trust this runner who won over a 5 horse field on a muddy track against exactly 0 Kentucky Derby horses. Nope!

#8 — SO HAPPY (15-1) | Trainer: Mark Glatt | Jockey: Mike Smith

The Case For: Three wins in his last four, including the Santa Anita Derby. Mike Smith is called "Money Mike" for a reason. The 103 figure last out rates as the 2nd best last out speed figure in the Derby field.

The Case Against: The number came back find, but the eye test says that race was a stinker. You'll be SO HAPPY you saved your money on this one.

#9 — THE PUMA (10-1) | Trainer: Gustavo Delgado | Jockey: Javier Castellano- SCRATCHED

#10 — WONDER DEAN (25-1) | Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi | Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

The Case For: The connections couldn't have asked for a better draw and this Japanese horse has proven his class in 2 different countries. When the American's bring their B game, leave it to the one who is a proven world traveler.

The Case Against: He was such a convincing horse, he couldn't even win the Japanese path to the Kentucky Derby. He may be a world traveler, but he's never won his first start in a new country. First time in America means a smart bettor's first chance to leave him off the ticket.

#11 — INCREDIBOLT (25-1) | Trainer: Riley Mott | Jockey: Jaime Torres

The Case For: Mott's love to get them ready on the day. This runner snuck in a triple digit speed figure in his final prep before the Derby. This one's just finding himself and peaking at the right time. Plus he's undefeated under the twin spires.

The Case Against: Winning the Virginia Derby is like winning your rec basketball league to qualify for a spot in the NBA finals. Sure the number looks good, but remember the Holy Bull against real runners 2 back? You know the one where he was 25 lengths off the winner.

#12 — CHIEF WALLABEE (10-1) | Trainer: Bill Mott | Jockey: Junior Alvarado

The Case For: Bill Mott won the Derby and the Belmont last year with Sovereignty. The jockey that day, Junior Alvarado. Last year's Kentucky Derby winner narrowly missed in the Florida Derby but was fully cranked on the first Saturday in May. Chief Wallabee was 1/2 length off the winners. History repeats.

The Case Against: He's not the only horse who has been pointed to this race. The others in that Florida Derby race are also allowed to improve. Not great that he regressed in speed figure second off the layoff which is supposed to be the prime race for a jump.

Bet last year's winning connections at MyBookie.

#13 — SILENT TACTIC (30-1) | Trainer: Mark Casse | Jockey: Cristian Torres- SCRATCHED

#14 — POTENTE (15-1) | Trainer: Bob Baffert | Jockey: Juan Hernandez

The Case For: Do you really want to bet against Baffert in the Kentucky Derby? An early speed type who is flying under the radar from this barn in a wide open field. Medina Spirit anyone? Sure the horse was DQ'd months later, but bettors had already cashed their tickets and were long gone by then.

The Case Against: The pace of that Santa Anita Derby wasn't crazy fast and this horse couldn't hold off So Happy. In a race that is likely to be quick, this one will be doing the moonwalk by the time they hit the stretch.

#15 — EMERGING MARKET (20-1) | Trainer: Chad Brown | Jockey: Flavien Prat

The Case For: The horse has never lost. He's only making his third start but his first race was the fastest figure of any runner in the field on debut by 3 points. Since then he's taken a nice step forward. Prat is here despite having ridden Commandment and Litmus Test at various times in their careers. If the best jock in the country thinks this is the winner, I'll coat tail that opinion.

The Case Against: Chad Brown is undoubtedly one of the best trainers in the countries but this isn't being run on the turf and it ain't the Preakness. Despite his dominance in so many other spots, his past performances say he ain't winning the Derby.

#16 — PAVLOVIAN (40-1) | Trainer: Doug O'Neill | Jockey: Edwin Maldonado

The Case For: O'Neill won the Derby with I'll Have Another in 2012. In a race where horses are lightly race, this runner will making his 11th start. He's going to have a solid foundation and has been steadily improving on figures.

The Case Against: Since leaving the maiden ranks this horse is 1 for 8 with his lone victory coming in the ungraded Sunland Derby. He is experienced for sure but with 8 losses he's an experienced loser.

#17 — SIX SPEED (40-1) | Trainer: Bhupat Seemar | Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

The Case For: One of the questions about horses in the Derby is how will they handle the chaos of a massive 20 horse field. This horse has run 2nd, 1st, and 1st in fields of 11, 16, and 16. This guy knows how to handle a bit of traffic unlike his American counterparts. The scratch of Silent Tactic means he also gets to leave behind the cursed 17 post position.

The Case Against: Six Speed looked absolutely unnerved while schooling the weekend before the Derby with a couple thousand people there. How much energy will he leave in the paddock when there are 100k+ in attendance?

#18 — FURTHER ADO (5-1) | Trainer: Brad Cox | Jockey: John Velazquez

The Case For: Top speed figure in a visually impressive final prep race. You get a top trainer in Kentucky and a hall of fame jockey. The horse won over the going and drew well to avoid the traffic trouble inside.

The Case Against: The Blue Grass looked nice, but what did he really beat. It was about as good a trip as they come. The last time he faced another Derby caliber horse he lost to the The Puma. Also, let's not forget that Cox is a Derby winning trainer, but his horse has never crossed the line first.

Bet this and other Brad Cox runners with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.

#19 — GOLDEN TEMPO (30-1) | Trainer: Cherie Devaux | Jockey: Jose Ortiz

The Case For: This horse has improved his figure in each of his four career starts. Jose Ortiz has ridden several of these horses in previous starts, but this is the one he lands on in the Derby. Another step forward in the offing? Ortiz has been a must play through the first handful of days at the Churchill meet.

The Case Against: There is likely to be an honest pace in a 20 horse field. While that may seem great for closers, it's been mid-pack runners that have benefited from those scenarios more often than not. Plus this horse may be getting faster, but the results show a downward trend in form.

#20 — FULLEFFORT (20-1) | Trainer: Brad Cox | Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione- SCRATCHED

The Case For: This horse is a fighter. Never out of the exacta in the last 5 starts. He's a Kentucky based horse with a Kentucky based trainer who gets one of the best riders in the state of Kentucky. Home field advantage.

The Case Against: The Jeff Ruby winner will beat me 1000 years out of 1000. This horse is making his dirt debut with a new jockey. Please bet him so I can enjoy your dead money when I cash.

#21 — GREAT WHITE (50-1) | Trainer: John Ennis | Jockey: Alex Achard

The Case For: The last race was a giant step backward but it was also his first on the dirt. Let's treat that first dirt effort like an educational experience and watch this longshot Rich Strike the field from the AE list straight to the penthouse.

The Case Against: This is a listed stakes horse on synthetic at best. He's here for regional connections to say they had a runner in the Derby. If you're asking who'd win in a fight between a GREAT WHITE and THE PUMA, I'm not betting on Jaws.

#22 — Ocelli (50-1) | Trainer: Whitworth Beckman | Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

The Case For: This horse has plenty of experience going long. He only took one attempt at a sprint and then went long. In the Derby you want to be in the first pack or out the back and being a deep closer, he'll be in the right spot. Jockey T Gaff had 2 wins on the Oaks card and hit the board in 6 of his races.

The Case Against: The horse is a maiden. Even if you wanted to make a case for him winning his first start in the Derby, his competition leaves something to be desired. He's been losing to the also rans of this group and doesn't seem likely to turn the turn the tables on them and then the rest of the field.

#23 — Robusta (50-1) | Trainer: Doug O'Neill | Jockey: Christian Torres

The Case For: Doug O'Neill has been there and done that in the Kentucky Derby. Maybe the experience pays dividends. The horse has Into Mischief on the dam side of the pedigree. The colt has produced three Derby winners and could very well just be getting started.

The Case Against: Unless you think this horse has taken a massive jump forward, there is no way he's turning the table on So Happy and Potente. Even if he does that still may not be good enough to win this race.

Kentucky Derby- The Also Eligibles

One scratch between now and Friday and the first alternate moves in. In 2022 Rich Strike shocked the world by drawing into the race and taking down the whole thing! Is there another late entrant bomb lurking in the AE's? If one of these horses draws in, cases will be added.

1. CORONA DE ORO- SCRATCHED

Betting News Kentucky Derby Horse Racing Coverage

It is wall to wall Kentucky Derby coverage from Betting News this week. Don't miss our full card analysis from Churchill Downs for every single race this week! That includes the marquee events with the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Run for the Roses on Saturday. Plus check out some bonus content to get you ready for the big day!

Full Card Analysis

• Betting News will have race by race analysis of the cards Tuesday-Saturday Churchill Downs. Check the site each day at 7:00 am ET for the breakdown of the day's racing action

Special Analysis

• Thursday Feature: The Derby isn't just about the racing. For many its about the parties! Betting News wants to help you be the smartest person in the room on Derby Day with our Trash Talker's Guide to the Kentucky Derby! We make a case for every runner in the field, so you can defend your pick with confidence. More importantly, we tell you why every horse can't winning making sure you can tell your buddies why their horse has no chance.
• Friday Feature: It's hard to pick the winner in the Derby, but even if you don't have a stake in one of the horses, there are plenty of Derby prop bets to consider. We'll look at the 2026 Best Kentucky Derby Props for the weekend.