Belmont Park Picks Today: Top Bets in Every Race for October 7, 2026

The Belmont Park entries for October 7, 2026, with first post listed at 1:10 p.m. ET, make a nine-race puzzle built around five turf events and two juvenile maiden races. On the new Belmont surfaces, we can be pretty confident that the races will be run on turf and that the conditions will be Fast and Firm but check that before betting. All picks assume Fast and Firm.

For my Belmont Park picks today, I like the contrast between experienced grass horses who know their jobs and youngsters whose next effort could look very different, with crowded fields arriving later.

My strongest opinion is Mutaawid in the longer turf allowance, while the maiden claiming race asks me to take a much bigger leap of faith with a horse whose form is decidedly unpretty… These picks were made before scratches and race-day changes. If you want to join the action, you can place your horse-racing bets at BetOnline.

Race 1: Weighted Average has the class, but the clock matters

My Pick: #3 Weighted Average (Morning line: 6-5)

I want Weighted Average close enough to the action to use her class, because this turf opener does not look loaded with committed speed. Her Churchill Downs allowance win showed patience and determination: she waited between runners, came out and fought through the finish rather than needing everything to fall into her lap. I also respect her graded-stakes placing at Gulfstream, which makes this assignment look manageable on class even though that performance came over a longer distance. With Flavien Prat aboard for Chad Brown, I can picture her following the early movement and asking the others a serious question when daylight appears. The snag is the long absence since winter; past accomplishments do not guarantee that she returns with the same appetite for a fight.

My alternative: #1 Don't Jinx It (Morning line: 2-1) gives me a forward option from the inside, backed by a turf win achieved through rating and responding. I would fear her most if the leaders loaf, although she weakened last time after securing a useful position.

Race 2: Very Clever gets more room to finish

My Pick: #6 Very Clever (Morning line: 2-1)

Very Clever is the filly I want to give another chance, because her Saratoga debut offered something more useful than a tidy placing: she kept improving after a wide move into the stretch. I'm interested in how that finish translates to a mile, where Manny Franco can let her find her rhythm instead of matching every early twitch. Her Curlin pedigree, with Bernardini underneath, adds interest to the longer trip, although pedigree alone will not get her home. I want Brad Cox's filly within striking range before the field straightens, because a furious early battle is far from assured. She still has to show that the encouraging finish was the beginning of a better racehorse, and that extra ground helps rather than exposing another question.

My alternative: #1 Badittude (Morning line: 3-1) has already improved between her Saratoga starts and should have a chance to hold a handier position while Very Clever gathers herself. I like that she moved into contention before finishing fourth last time, but her first route still asks her to finish the job rather than merely arrive at the argument.

Race 3: Screaming Uncle must save something for the finish

My Pick: #7 Screaming Uncle (Morning line: 7-2)

I'm siding with Screaming Uncle, but I want speed with common sense attached, because this sprint contains enough forward ambition to punish a horse who empties the tank early. His latest dirt mile produced a third after he pressed the pace and kept on, giving me a current effort to work with rather than a distant good race to dust off. I like the shorter trip for a horse recently asked to carry that early involvement farther. Ricardo Santana Jr. should have options, and I see the winning version following the front group before moving while something remains in reserve. The class rise from his latest claiming assignment and the threat of another early fight keep me honest; pressure has caught up with him before.

My alternative: #4 Gypsy Dreaming (Morning line: 4-1) drops from a much more expensive claiming race and adds blinkers, so I can make a case for him looking more competitive if he breaks cleanly and carries his speed efficiently. His recent fading efforts are the counterargument, and I would need him to ration that speed rather than simply becoming another contributor to the front-end argument.

Race 4: Mutaawid can turn patience into a punch

My Pick: #1 Mutaawid (Morning line: 3-1)

Mutaawid is my strongest opinion because I can see a winning race in his recent record without needing to invent an entirely new horse. His turf win under Kendrick Carmouche came through a sustained rally, and his subsequent narrow defeat after swinging extremely wide showed that the finish was no one-afternoon accident. I like him back in this allowance condition after facing a tougher group, with proven staying ability that makes the extended trip part of his case. My ideal picture has Carmouche keeping him connected, easing him clear before the leaders sprint away and letting that long run do the talking. The lack of obvious early pressure is the concern, so I want patience without giving the front runners a usable head start. He has already finished the job in a similar assignment, a better argument than asking him to discover a winning habit today.

My alternative: #8 Harrow (Morning line: 6-1) has beaten Mutaawid in a close finish and owns a substantial turf winning record. I want him nearer the decisive move than in his latest Kentucky Downs defeat, but that weakening effort keeps me from treating their old head-to-head result as the final word.

Race 5: Wartoendallwars is the uncomfortable longshot

My Pick: #8 Wartoendallwars (Morning line: 30-1)

I'm taking the uncomfortable side with Wartoendallwars, and I will not dress up his Saratoga races as hidden masterpieces: he hesitated in one and offered little response in the other. The case starts with a youngster getting another chance against maiden claimers after facing maiden special-weight company, with room to develop rather than a long record of repeating the same disappointment. I want him settling behind the early activity, avoiding another compromised beginning and starting his run while the field sorts out who can sustain the pace. A cleaner start and a more purposeful finish give him a path, but I am asking for meaningful progress rather than one cosmetic improvement so that's why I expect a big price to make that bet.

My alternative: #5 Ogugua (Morning line: 15-1) also changes from maiden special-weight company to a claiming assignment after a debut in which he faltered, so I'm allowing for a better second effort without calling the first one good. His path is to sit closer than the main pick and get first run on tiring rivals, provided he can sustain that position much longer than he did at Saratoga.

Race 6: Debt Limit gets a chance to collect late

My Pick: #4 Debt Limit (Fr) (Morning line: 12-1)

I keep coming back to medium longshot Debt Limit, although this is a genuine toss-up among several runners rather than a race that two names settle. His recent Saratoga effort was respectable without being decisive, and I like a patient trip behind a field with several horses inclined to take an early interest. The Monmouth run is useful context: he pulled early, traveled wide and still finished close, showing why I want him relaxed before Javier Castellano asks him to advance. I would rather see him arrive with something left than spend his finish on an impressive-looking early bid. The concern is plain: he has been close enough to matter without turning those recent chances into wins, so help from the leaders still requires a decisive response from him.

My alternative: #5 Outsource (Morning line: 8-1) gives me another late runner, with runner-up efforts built on closing well and running on after less-than-smooth beginnings. I prefer his chance when the early group keeps the race honest and he can make one sustained advance, but his latest Saratoga outing reminds me that a closing style is not a guarantee that the closing punch will show up.

Race 7: Maximum Heat has to prove the easy win travels

My Pick: #10 Maximum Heat (Morning line: 8-1)

Maximum Heat gets my vote because his first dirt appearance supplied the clearest demonstration yet of how he can win: take a position, stretch the field and keep going. I liked that he recovered from hitting the gate and drew away in his Saratoga maiden victory instead of requiring a spotless beginning. The mile suits what he has already done on this surface, and Jose Lezcano can put him into the race rather than wait for somebody else to create it. I want a controlled forward trip, not a prolonged contest with every horse showing early interest from this crowded field. His maiden win came against a small group and he now faces winners for a new barn, so the impressive dirt introduction has to survive a more complicated assignment.

My alternative: #1 Salt Spartan (Morning line: 4-1) comes off a strong turf runner-up effort and has an inside draw that could help him follow the action without joining every early skirmish. I respect that recent finish, but his return to dirt is a substantial question because his fast-track record has not matched the better grass performances, making surface suitability central to his chance.

Race 8: Mobile's second act meets a crowded stage

My Pick: #1 Mobile (Morning line: 5-2)

Mobile is my narrow preference in another race with several serious contenders, because of how she won her debut rather than the unblemished record beside her name. She started behind the field, worked into the Saratoga turf sprint and edged clear, giving me an actual example of a finish when the race reached its decisive stage. I can picture Manny Franco letting the speed sort itself out before asking her to advance, especially with several runners wanting prominent positions. The added ground gives that patient style more time, although a crowded field makes it important to stay within reach and find daylight. She tackles winners after only one start, and I will not assume Graham Motion's filly must improve simply because the debut was encouraging; repeating that finish against better company is the examination.

My alternative: #10 Mobay Princess (Morning line: 12-1) brings experience and a latest turf win achieved from the front, giving me a contrasting way to imagine the race being won. I would like her most if she can establish a useful position without spending too much early energy, though the change from routing to this sprint means her successful Gulfstream trip is a guide rather than a script she can simply reuse.

Race 9: Griselda wants the rematch run her way

My Pick: #6 Griselda (Fr) (Morning line: 3-1)

I'm giving Griselda the edge because the finale looks capable of producing early competition that lets a patient filly bring her best running to the stretch. Her latest Saratoga second came after advancing from well back and traveling wider around the later turn, a more relevant effort for this mile than the earlier sprint in which she made little impact. I want Manny Franco letting the leaders settle their disagreements before getting her rolling, rather than leaving everything to a last-second dash for daylight. Her established turf-route form supports that picture, and the return to a longer race last time brought back the finishing run I want. She still has to pass the horse who held her off in their latest meeting; a busy early pace helps only if she turns the invitation into a winning finish.

My alternative: #12 Ori (Morning line: 2-1) already beat Griselda by controlling their Saratoga race and responding when challenged, so I cannot dismiss the same straightforward winning route today. The outside draw and other early interests make that job more demanding, but if Javier Castellano gets her settled without a draining fight, I could be watching the closer arrive just too late again.

My Bottom Line: Trust the argument, respect the questions

Mutaawid in the 4th is my strongest opinion because his staying form and winning finish fit the assignment, while my maiden longshot needs substantial progress but might be a juicy bets if the odds are long enough. Follow the action today and see our computer pivks on the Belmont racing page and if you want to dig into the data yourself you should also check the track-bias tool, jockey statistics and trainer statistics as resources, with the horse-racing articles hub offering more reading between starts. If you are ready to play, I invite you to bet the card at BetOnline , one of the best racebooks out there.