Will Liverpool Drop Points on the Road? Expert Picks for Tomorrow’s EPL Slate

BettingThePitch

Written by: BettingThePitch

Last Update: Sat Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

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EPL

Leeds United logo
Tomorrow9:00 am ET
Crystal Palace logo

Leeds United
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

-0.5

-140

2

+120o

-137

Crystal Palace
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

+0.75

-108

2

-134u

+410

See Picks & Statistics For The Game

We're coming off a nice 2-0 sweep with yesterday's article plays, so let's see if we can do it again!

Well, it finally happened. Arsenal had their first real hiccup of the season.

The Gunners went to Brighton and were beaten 3-0 by a Seagulls side that came ready to play.

Brighton's closing speed caused Arsenal problems all afternoon and never allowed them to settle into the match. I certainly didn't expect Brighton to carry our over by themselves, but we'll gladly take it!

Now, we turn our attention to Sunday.

I have two Premier League team totals that stand out on today's slate. So, let's get right into the plays!

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Featured Plays

Bournemouth vs. Liverpool

Rayan and The Cherries host Liverpool at Vitality Stadium today.

Liverpool are another team that I simply don't feel comfortable backing right now.

Despite some of their recent results, this still feels like a side with major holes in the squad. More importantly, the defensive numbers continue to concern me.

Liverpool allowed Tottenham to create 2.24 expected goals at Anfield on Tuesday.

Yes, Liverpool rotated the squad slightly for that match. However, allowing that much production to a struggling Spurs attack is still alarming.

Remember, Tottenham had yet to score in the Premier League before today.

This matchup also gave Liverpool problems last season.

Bournemouth scored three goals in this exact fixture a year ago. Additionally, the Cherries scored twice when they traveled to Anfield for the reverse meeting.

Now, Bournemouth enter this matchup playing some quality football.

Their only loss came in the season opener at Manchester City. Since then, the Cherries have recorded two wins and three draws.

More importantly for this bet, the goals have been coming.

Bournemouth have scored at least twice in three of their last four matches. They've also reached two goals in every home game this season outside of one against a very good Everton defense.

Even in that match, Bournemouth created more than 2.0 expected goals.

They also missed six big chances.

Therefore, the scoreline didn't really reflect the quality of opportunities Bournemouth created.

On the other side, Liverpool's defensive numbers suggest they've actually overperformed to begin the season.

Considering some of the chances they're already allowing, that's concerning.

I expect Liverpool to create opportunities of their own today. However, I don't trust this defense enough to keep Bournemouth quiet on the other end.

The Cherries are playing with confidence and consistently creating quality chances at home.

At even money, asking them to score twice feels like great value.

Give me goals from the hosts.

Play: Bournemouth Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+100)

Leeds vs. Crystal Palace

We've seen Leeds appear in plenty of article plays to begin the season, and I think there's a good reason for it.

I was high on this team entering the year, and they've done nothing to change my opinion.

The summer additions have meshed nicely with the returning players. As a result, Leeds already look capable of competing for a European place.

Their home form has been particularly impressive.

Last season, Leeds averaged 1.6 goals per 90 minutes at home. However, they've nearly doubled that production through their first two home matches this year.

Leeds already have five home goals this season.

Now, they face a Crystal Palace side that I believe is getting slightly too much credit for its recent results.

Before their last four matches, Palace were beaten comfortably by Everton and Manchester City.

They then bounced back against a poor Fulham side. However, their two cup victories over weaker opposition have helped make the recent run look better than it actually is.

Sandwiched between those cup wins was a home loss to Ipswich.

Palace conceded three goals in that match.

Yes, they were reduced to 10 men. However, Ipswich had already scored before the red card and were finding dangerous opportunities early.

That matters heading into a difficult road environment against Leeds.

Meanwhile, the hosts are playing with confidence and continuing to attack even after getting themselves ahead.

That's one of the biggest reasons I like this team total.

Leeds aren't simply looking to grab a goal and protect it. Instead, they continue pushing forward and searching for the next one.

Palace should give them opportunities, especially if Leeds establish control early.

Ultimately, I think this is a difficult road test for the visitors.

With the way Leeds are playing at home, two goals feels very attainable.

I'm going back to the well with them.

Play: Leeds Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-130)

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BettingThePitch
BettingThePitch

Just a guy who loves sports, soccer and beating the books!

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