UEFA Champions League Picks and Predictions: Wednesday’s UCL
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Wed Feb 25, 2026, 10:52 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
UEFA
Yesterday, we had four teams move onto the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League. Congrats to Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Bodo/Glimt and Newcastle United for moving on. Today, four more teams close out the second leg of the knockout round with a victory, and thus four more will be sent packing. Let's get right into our UCL picks for today.
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UEFA Champions League Picks and Predictions – February 25
All that matters is aggregate score. If things are tied on aggregate after regulation time, there will be standard overtime rules, which includes two separate 15 minute periods of extra time, along with a penalty kick shootout if things are still even. There is no golden goal in extra time, and no benefit for scoring more away goals.
Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund UEFA Champions League Picks
Serhou Guirassy is a goal machine for Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund Leads 2-0 on Aggregate
Best Bet: Atalanta/Dortmund Under 3 (-130) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
The Germans are visiting in this second leg, but with a safe, two goal aggregate lead, there's no reason for them to be extra assertive or aggressive. All they need to do is sit back, defend, and move on to the next round. The pressure lies on the Italian hosts to make up for what they lost on the road last week.
Ultimately, I do not think Atalanta's offense will be strong enough to net a couple of goals, plus, I doubt their backline shuts out Dortmund (unless the Germans decide to be extra conservative). We should see a boring kick around much like Leverkusen and Olympiacos yesterday, but I don't see a world where Atalanta is able to overcome this deficit.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund Wins 1-0 (+1000)
Juventus vs. Galatasaray UEFA Champions League Picks
Galatasaray Leads 5-2 on Aggregate
At home, I would expect the Italians to bring some fire, especially considering they need to win by three just to force extra time. If I had to bet this game, I would probably take Juventus ML and Over 2.5 for (-108), but I'll hold off and save my money for the other matches.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. AS Monaco UEFA Champions League Picks
PSG Leads 3-2 on Aggregate
After a five goal thriller on the road, PSG is back at home with an aggregate lead. Plus their visitors will be without Aleksandr Golovin for this second leg. While that isn't that big of a loss, he has six UCL starts and 15 in Ligue 1 already this year. Regardless, PSG are the better team, at home, with a slight lead. They are a massive favorite for a reason, and we saw four total goals in the first half last match. In my eyes, teams will be more cautious and defensive in this second meeting.
Overall, I cannot quite find a bet in this match that I like. I don't hate the under 3.5, but worry about Monaco dying early on in the game and letting their hosts do whatever they please. Stay away for me.
Real Madrid vs. Benfica UEFA Champions League Picks
Jude Bellingham and Real Madrid take on Benfica in the second leg of this knockout round
Real Madrid Lead 1-0 on Aggregate
Best Bet: Real Madrid/Benfica Under 3 (-128) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
We are backing the under in Spain this afternoon. The hosts have a slight aggregate lead and will be meeting with Benfica for the third time in less than a month. On January 28, we saw Benfica beat Real Madrid 4-2 in the final League Phase match. That meant much more to the hosts than Madrid. Then, in the first leg of the knockout round, Real Madrid asserted their dominance.
They controlled 58% of possession, outshot their hosts 16-1 overall and 7-3 on frame while winning the corner kick battle 6-3 as well. Now at home, with a slight lead, they'll be focused enough to win this game, but I don't see them being overly aggressive on offense.
Prediction: 0-0 Draw (+1300)
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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