Can AC Milan Slow Down This Benfica Attack? Three Plays from Today’s Europa League Slate

BettingThePitch

Written by: BettingThePitch

Published: Wed Sep 16, 2026, 8:00 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Can Pulisic and Milan take down Rotterdam on the road?

soccer

The Europa League is back, with the league phase kicking off across the next two days.

That gives us another great competition to bet on, and there are some fantastic matchups on the schedule.

Interestingly, a Premier League side has lifted the Europa League trophy in each of the last two seasons. Can Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, or Sunderland make it three straight?

We'll find out over the next several months.

For today, though, there's only one match I want exposure to.

AC Milan host Benfica in a matchup that immediately caught my attention. More importantly, I think we have three plays offering some great value.

With that said, let's get into them!

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AC Milan vs. Benfica

I have to start with the visitors in this one.

Benfica have been absolutely rolling this season and look like a team on a mission.

Through six league matches, they have five wins and one draw. Even that lone draw came in a match they dominated but simply couldn't finish their chances.

Since then, this attack has continued to produce at an incredible rate.

Benfica are averaging nearly four goals per match this season. Additionally, they enter this matchup having scored 15 goals across their last five games.

However, their road numbers might be even more impressive.

Benfica have scored 14 goals without conceding across three away league matches. That's nearly five goals per game on the road.

The underlying numbers back up the production as well.

They're consistently creating around 2.0 expected goals or better, and this team has shown no interest in taking its foot off the gas.

Marco Silva has brought an aggressive attacking style to Benfica, and the players have responded extremely well.

They're direct when moving forward and constantly looking to get their striker involved inside the box.

That brings me to Vangelis Pavlidis.

The Benfica striker already has eight goals and two assists through six matches this season. Moreover, he has contributed to a goal in four straight entering this matchup.

His Europa League qualifying numbers are just as impressive.

Pavlidis recorded six goals and one assist across five qualifying starts. Therefore, getting +135 for him to score or assist immediately caught my attention.

With the way Benfica are creating chances, I expect their No. 9 to be heavily involved again.

Can Milan Keep This Benfica Attack Quiet?

I haven't been overly impressed with AC Milan so far this season.

Yes, they remain unbeaten. However, I still think there will be matches where the weaknesses in this squad become noticeable.

This feels like one of those spots.

That said, Milan do have enough quality in midfield to control portions of this match and create chances themselves.

We've seen Ramos produce some brilliant moments for both club and country. However, we've also seen him struggle to hit the target when presented with big opportunities.

There was also one major positive for Milan in their last match.

Christian Pulisic made his return and came off the bench after halftime. More importantly, he produced an assist and immediately helped Milan become more dangerous going forward.

His return could be extremely important against this Benfica side.

Because Benfica attack so aggressively, there should be opportunities for Milan to break quickly in transition.

If Pulisic and company can create 3-on-3 situations on the counter, I think the hosts can cause real problems.

Set pieces could also become another avenue for Milan to find success.

Despite my concerns with the overall squad, they have scored twice in three of their four matches this season. On the other hand, they've also conceded in three of those four games.

That combination is exactly why I keep coming back to the total.

Benfica are playing too well offensively for me to expect them to suddenly become conservative here. Meanwhile, Milan have enough attacking quality to punish the visitors if they commit too many numbers forward.

An early goal for either side could completely open this match.

With Over 2.75, we also get some protection if the game lands on exactly three goals.

Ultimately, I expect Benfica to create plenty of chances, but I don't think Milan go quietly at home.

Give me goals at the San Siro.

Plays: AC Milan vs. Benfica Over 2.75 Goals (-110), Benfica Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+160), Vangelis Pavlidis To Score or Assist (+135)

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BettingThePitch
BettingThePitch

Just a guy who loves sports, soccer and beating the books!

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