Overseas ‘Dogs: Colts vs. Commanders – NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (10/4)
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Wed Sep 30, 2026, 2:06 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-3.5
-110
47.5
-105u
-190
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+4.5
-110
45
-110o
+173
Wake up, kegs and eggs! Remember those days? We have an international treat on our hands Sunday morning, as the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders head to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London for a 9:30 AM ET kickoff. Let's dive into my Colts vs. Commanders expert pick and prediction for Oct. 4.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more for Week 4, check out our NFL Picks Page and NFL Odds Page. Now, let's dive into my Colts vs. Commanders predictions for Sunday.
Colts vs. Commanders Expert Picks for Week 4 (Oct. 4)
This is a really interesting early-morning matchup. Marcus Mariota is set to fill in for the injured Jayden Daniels again, while Indianapolis comes in with Jonathan Taylor and an offense that can put up points in a hurry. The Colts are fresh off an ugly 19-17 win against the Texans.
Mariota turned back the clock last week. Filling in for Daniels, he threw three touchdown passes in Washington's 33-31 upset win over the Seahawks. It was one of the biggest surprises of the season so far, and it gave the Commanders something they badly needed while their starting quarterback remains sidelined.
Now, one good Mariota game doesn't suddenly make Washington a perfect offense. But it does matter that he can still operate the system, make plays when things break down, and give the Commanders a chance to score.
This matchup is especially interesting because both defenses have clear tendencies that opposing offenses can attack.
Washington has allowed a 51% target share to players aligned out wide this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. That is a major number, and it creates a potential opening for Indianapolis' outside receivers.
With Alec Pierce out in Week 3, Laquon Treadwell ran 87% of his routes from out wide. The next-closest Colts player was at just 48%. Treadwell saw only one target, which is obviously uncomfortable, but he ran the second-most routes on the team behind Josh Downs.
His role as a clear outside WR right now matters when looking at player props. And he is facing a Washington defense that has been getting targeted out wide at one of the highest rates in football.
Colts vs. Commanders Game Information
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium; London, England
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026
- Kickoff: 9:30 AM ET
- TV: NFL Network
Colts vs. Commanders Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total
Odds via BetOnline.ag, an industry leader in the sports betting world:
- Indianapolis Colts -3.5 (-112)
- Indianapolis Colts Moneyline (-190)
- Washington Commanders +3.5 (-108)
- Washington Commanders Moneyline (+165)
- Over 47 (-113)
- Under 47 (-107)
Colts vs. Commanders Preview: NFL Prediction for Week 4
The Colts have allowed a 38% target share to slot receivers this season, the second-highest rate in football. That brings Washington's receivers into play, particularly because the Commanders move their wideouts around so much.
Stefon Diggs leads the team, running 63% of his routes from the slot. But the Mariota factor is worth considering here. Over the last two games with Mariota under center, Terry McLaurin has led the Commanders with a 27% target share. Diggs is second at 19%, but this might get us a discounted number on some Diggs props.
The Colts' biggest defensive issue might not even be in the passing game. They have struggled against the run, especially on zone concepts. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth-highest yards before contact in the NFL, which is not a great starting point when you are about to face an offense that wants to run zone at the highest rate in the league.
Washington offensive coordinator David Blough and the Commanders have run zone concepts on 78% of their rushing plays this season. That is the highest rate in football.
Indianapolis has allowed the fifth-highest success rate against zone runs and is giving up 5.49 yards per carry on those plays. According to Fantasy Points data, the Colts have also struggled with tackling, allowing the fourth-highest missed-tackles-forced-per-attempt rate.
This could really give Jacory Croskey-Merritt a crack at an outlier game.
If the Commanders can keep running the ball, it makes Mariota's life much easier. It keeps Washington ahead of the chains, gives the offense more play-action opportunities, and prevents the Colts from simply teeing off on a backup quarterback.
Colts vs. Commanders Expert Pick: Commanders +3.5
I know momentum is a funny thing.
Teams have not always followed up big wins with another great performance this season, and Washington just pulled off a massive 33-31 upset over Seattle. That is a spot where the public can easily overreact in either direction. Either the Commanders are suddenly being crowned as a team nobody wants to play, or bettors immediately fade them because the emotional letdown is supposedly coming.
I'm not getting too caught up in either side of that.
Jonathan Taylor is a monster, and the Colts are a legitimate problem when they get their run game going. Indianapolis is the better team on paper, and laying a short number makes sense.
But I think Washington has the schematic ingredients for this specific matchup to keep this close.
Best Bet: Commanders +3.5 (-108) | BetOnline.ag
The Colts have struggled against zone runs. The Commanders run zone at the highest rate in football. Indianapolis has also had tackling issues, and Washington has a back in Croskey-Merritt who could break off a couple of plays if he gets through the first level cleanly.
Then you have Mariota, who looked much better than expected last week and has already shown a willingness to feed McLaurin. Add in Diggs' slot role against a Colts defense that has allowed a ton of targets there, and there are enough paths for Washington to stay competitive.
It doesn't feel fantastic. I'm not going to pretend it does, but that's often the price of backing a dog with some real matchup-based logic.
Give me Washington +3.5 in London.
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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