Undefeated in Sin City: Chiefs vs. Raiders — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (10/4)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Fri Oct 02, 2026, 2:48 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
nfl
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Moneyline
-4.0
-115
48
-108u
-210
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Moneyline
+4.5
-110
47
-105o
+185
There are currently 4 undefeated teams left in the NFL. Two of them reside in the AFC West and both will go head to head this week in Sin City. The Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders will faceoff this week and both teams enter the week still undefeated.
Only one team can leave this game with a spotless record and I'm super excited to see who comes out on top.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: Allegiant Stadium; Las Vegas, Nevada
- Date: Sunday, October 4th, 2026
- Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (2025: 6-8; 256.2 YPG | 22 TD | 11 INT)
- Las Vegas Raiders: Kirk Cousins (2025: 5-3; 205.5 YPG | 10 TD | 5 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Demon Time in KC
The Kansas Chiefs have come into this year with an agenda. Win games, score a lot of points and win more games.
So far, they've done all three things impeccably well. The Chiefs are 3-0, the offense is averaging 29.3 points per game and not only does Patrick Mahomes look great; but Kenneth Walker is everything you could've possibly wanted.
Walker leads the NFL in rush yards (360) through three games. he's averaging the 4th highest yards per carry (5.5) and he's gotten into the endzone 4 times already. He's caught 11 of his 18 targets for 82 receiving yards and 2 of his touchdowns have come via the air.
Patrick Mahomes is back like nothing happened. He's averaging 270.7 pass yards per game, he's completing 68% of his passes and he's thrown 7 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions.
Travis Kelce looks like he spent the summer drinking from the fountain of youth. He currently leads the entire NFL in yards after catch, averaging 77.0 receiving yards per game and he's got 2 touchdowns. He's caught 14 of his 18 targets and currently leads the Chiefs in receiving yards and target share.
Mahomes good, Walker good and Kelce good; old news. More importantly, this Kansas City defense has looked great. They rank 3rd in points allowed through the first three games, allowing just 16.7 points per game and additionally allowing just 278.0 total yards per game (4th).
The Chiefs are back and they look scarier than ever.
The Silver & Black
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 under new Head Coach Klint Kubiak. The offense looks great, the defense looks even better and they just got their best player back on the field.
You can call it the schedule, but the Raiders have now won 3 straight game and back to back games as underdogs. The team is tied with Kansas City for 7th most points per game (29.3), they rank 8th in points allowed (18.0) and they've only gotten better with each passing week.
Brock Bowers was back on the field last week, playing in his first game of 2026. Bowers played 80% of the snaps in his first game back, he caught 10 of his 14 targets for 116 yards and even scored the eventual game winning touchdown.
Bowers became the only TE this year to record a game of 10 receptions, 100+ yards and a touchdown. He's played just one game.
Bowers saw a 36% target share in Week 3, averaging 3.31 yards per route run and he accounted for 47% of the team's air yards. His average depth of target was 9.0 yards and what's more interesting is where Bowers was lined up for a majority of this game.
Bowers played just 20% of his snaps in Week 1 at the 'in-line' TE spot, instead taking a majority of his snaps in the slot (43%) and out wide (34%).
Klint Kubiak has Bowers filling the 'JSN' role in this offense and I can't even describe out excited that gets me.
Sunday's Best Bets
Michael Mayer o2.5 Receptions (-120) | Lucky Rebel
Going to Michael Mayer might sound weird, but hear me out.
In Week 3, with Bowers back on the field, Mayer played 88% of the offensive snaps and lead all receivers in snap share. Mayer was 2nd in route share last week, only behind Bowers and he caught all 3 of his targets for 32 yards and a touchdown.
If Bowers is going to be playing nearly 80% of his snaps out of the slot/out wide, I'm expecting Mayer to have a significant role in this offense. They just paid the kid in the offseason and this week they face a blitz happy Steve Spagnuolo defense.
Going back to last year, the Chiefs blitzed at the 4th highest rate in the NFL. Kirk's completing 67% of his passes this year, he's throwing 31 times per game and he thrives against the blitz.
Since 2021, against the blitz, Cousins has the 8th best passer rating (98.4), he ranks 10th in EPA/dropback and has 38 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions. This year against the blitz, Mayer's targets per route run multiples 3x against the blitz.
Mayer's average depth of target is 4.4 yards this year. He is very much the release valve of this offense and this week against this defense; they'll need it.
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