Thunder vs Spurs Western Conference Finals Game 6 Preview & Picks

Odds via Lucky Rebel

Moneyline: Spurs (-150) | Thunder (+130)

Spread: Spurs -3 (-115) | Thunder +3 (-105)

Total: 220 Over (-108) | Under (-112)

Thunder vs Spurs Game 6 Preview

Despite not having Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, the Thunder still found a way to lay the hammer down in Game 5 with a 127-114 victory.

Oklahoma City also didn't have those two players available in Game 4, and they lost 103-82. The biggest difference between those games was the location. Naturally, both home teams cruised to victories with the roars of their fanbase behind them. Will the Thunder be capable of pulling off another hobbled victory, but this time in a hostile, road environment?

Mitchell has already been ruled out, and while Williams is currently questionable, it appears he may be trending in the wrong direction.

Of course, that's far from ideal for the Thunder, who are looking to avoid a Game 7 scenario where all bets are off. But what OKC can still hang its hat on is its depth and experience. It's the same synopsis I wrote about heading into Game 5. The Thunder are averaging an impressive 42 bench points per game this postseason, which ranks first, while the Spurs are tallying 32 per contest, which ranks sixth.

That next-man-up mentality is a major reason why Oklahoma City has been so successful. They play extremely well off one another and truly understand their respective roles. But will that still be enough tonight?

When you look back at what transpired in Game 1, I attribute much of that result to the classic rest-versus-rust situation. The Spurs had just wrapped up their series against the Timberwolves and carried momentum into Oklahoma City against a Thunder team that had been off the court for a week. Even then, OKC was still in position to win until Victor Wembanyama buried a massive 3-pointer from another area code to tie the game and eventually help lead San Antonio to the upset.

The other Thunder loss, as noted, came in Game 4. That was the first game OKC had to play without both Mitchell and Williams, and the adjustment was clearly significant. Still, it didn't take long for the defending champs to regroup and bounce back with the same crew in Game 5.

Look, it would make sense for the Spurs to respond at home, but I still find it incredibly difficult to fade the Thunder. I liked them in the last game when we broke down the matchup, and since we're getting another solid price on them for this game, I'd have to gravitate in their direction once again.

The Thunder are still the best team in basketball, and it shouldn't shock anyone to see them play like it again tonight.

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Thunders vs Spurs Picks

• Jared McCain Over 2.5 Rebounds (-121)
• De'Aaron Fox Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130)

Heading into Game 5, the bets I dished out were Jared McCain to go over 2.5 rebounds, which he cashed by hauling in three boards, and De'Aaron Fox to go over 23.5 combined points, rebounds and assists. Fox fell short, finishing with nine points, eight assists and four rebounds while shooting a dreadful 4-for-15 from the floor. Had he shot even somewhat competently, we would've cruised to another prop winner.

Either way, there is still value to be had not only on Fox for this game, but McCain, too.

With McCain, it's quite simple. Much like last game, I'm taking the over on his rebounds because the books still refuse to adjust accordingly. Getting his rebounding prop at 2.5 when it's obvious he's going to log 25-plus minutes is a strong look. He's gone over this number in three of his last four games, and I expect his involvement all over the floor to continue, if not increase.

As for Fox, I'm staying away from his scoring tonight and instead targeting his rebounding and facilitating production combined. I'm taking Fox to go over 9.5 combined rebounds and assists in Game 6. He's averaging six assists and four rebounds per game this postseason, and those numbers have climbed in this series against Oklahoma City, where he's averaging seven rebounds and six assists through three meetings.

What stands out even more is that Fox is averaging 10 potential assists per game this postseason, and that number has climbed even higher to 12 per game against OKC.

Fox has gone over 9.5 rebounds and assists in all three games against Oklahoma City, and eight out of 14 playoff games this year.

He, along with the rest of San Antonio's roster, will need to step up in a massive way to avoid elimination. And right now, it appears the best way for Fox to do that is by distributing the ball and crashing the glass when needed. If the shot isn't falling, he'll need to continue contributing in those gritty ways

Thunder vs Spurs Picks

• Jared McCain Over 2.5 Rebounds (-121 at Lucky Rebel)
• De'Aaron Fox Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130 at Lucky Rebel)

NBA Record: 227-182-1 (+22.50 units)

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