With this being a heightened matchup and Cup Championship implications on the line, I expect defensive intensity to ramp up – which should limit Carter even more than usual.


Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sat Dec 13, 2025, 1:40 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes

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Saturday's slate features two games in the NBA Cup Semifinals. At 5:30 p.m. ET, the Orlando Magic host the New York Knicks, followed by a matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs.
I've got three plays across these two contests. Let's dive into my NBA prop bets for Saturday, December 13.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
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This will be the fourth time Wendell Carter Jr. has faced the Knicks this season. In the first matchup back on November 12, he scored 13 points, followed by an 11-point outing in their second meeting. His most recent game against New York came just a week ago – and it was his worst performance yet, finishing with eight points on 25% shooting.
I'm expecting, and hoping, for a similar result this time around.
While this Knicks defense isn't quite as formidable as it once was, they still have clear strengths — particularly at the rim. New York is limiting opponents to just 63.5% shooting at the basket, which ranks fifth-best in the league. They also rank second in mid-range shot rate allowed (23.6%) and sit 11th in opponent field-goal percentage from that area (42.3%).
That's notable given Carter takes the majority of his shots at the rim (46%) and is operating with the lowest usage rate of his career at just 14.2%, placing him in the 38th percentile among his position group.
It looks like Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama will return to action tonight as San Antonio hosts the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Naturally, you'd expect that to benefit a facilitator like De'Aaron Fox. Instead, I view it as a sell opportunity. In the four games Fox has played alongside Wembanyama, he's averaged 5.8 assists — a figure inflated by one 10-assist performance. Outside of that outing, Fox stayed under 5.5 assists in every other game.
I'm banking on him staying under once again, especially against the league's top defense. Oklahoma City ranks first in both points per 100 possessions allowed and effective field-goal percentage allowed.

Our final prop takes us to the glass, where I'm banking on Jalen Williams to grab fewer than six rebounds tonight. The return of Victor Wembanyama to the floor should naturally cap rebounding opportunities across the board, but especially for someone like Williams, who isn't a primary rebounder to begin with.
On the season, Williams is averaging 5.2 rebounds per game and has stayed under six boards in four of the six games he's played. Let's take advantage of this number before the market adjusts.
Best Bets:
NBA Record: 63-42 (+15.37 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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