Happy Sunday, everybody! Outside of the NFL Playoffs, we've got a seven-game NBA slate on deck. Below, I'm dishing out a handful of my favorite plays, so let's dive into my NBA best bets for Sunday, January 25.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
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NBA Best Bets for Sunday, January 25 | Betting News
Immanuel Quickley Under 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
Our first play focuses on Canada's team as the Raptors head to Oklahoma City to face the defending champion Thunder on Sunday evening.
Toronto enters this matchup as a double-digit underdog, which implies a difficult spot ahead for the visiting side. Not only do I expect the Raptors to struggle collectively, but I'm also targeting a tough outing for Immanuel Quickley. I'm playing the under on Quickley's points, rebounds and assists prop at 26.5.
The Raptors are banged up, limiting their offensive firepower and placing added responsibility on a role player like Quickley. He hasn't been playing like a role player over the past month, but against a formidable group such as the Thunder, I expect him to slip back into that role.
Quickley takes most of his shots from beyond the arc and the mid-range. While the Thunder have regressed defensively on the perimeter this season, ranking 26th in opponent three-point field goal percentage, they should be able to key in on Quickley given Toronto's limited surrounding options. Oklahoma City also owns the league's top mid-range defense, ranking first in opponent field goal percentage from that area at 38.6%.
The Thunder rank fifth in opponent assists allowed per game, and Quickley's rebounding shouldn't be much of a concern, as he averages fewer than five boards per contest. While it's understandable why his props have risen, given he's averaging 19.4 points, 6.2 assists and 4.1 rebounds in January, this matchup presents a completely different challenge. Regression should be expected on Sunday night.
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Collin Gillespie Under 16.5 Points (-112)
The Phoenix Suns host the Miami Heat on Sunday without their star guard Devin Booker in the lineup. Naturally, that opens the door for secondary scoring options like Collin Gillespie – but not enough to push him past 16.5 points.
While Gillespie may see an uptick in opportunities, that doesn't necessarily translate to quality looks. Miami's defense ranks ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions and 13th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Gillespie takes 62% of his shots from beyond the arc, yet the Heat rank 10th in opponent three-point field goal percentage at 35.4%.
Without Booker drawing defensive attention, it becomes much more difficult for Gillespie to find clean perimeter looks. He'll be forced to create more on his own, which is a tough ask for a catch-and-shoot profile, especially against one of the league's stronger defenses. Look for Gillespie to stay under 17 points tonight.
Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-144) vs Dallas Mavericks
We'll move away from the prop market for our third and final play and wrap things up with the Bucks moneyline.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for this one, and Milwaukee has dropped four of its last five games – so why back the Bucks here?
For a few reasons. First, the Bucks' locker room appears to be in an odd place, with signs of tension surrounding Giannis and the rest of the group. With him sidelined and the team struggling, this could be a spot where the remaining players respond with some passion and bit of added incentivization to play a more inspired brand of basketball.
The matchup itself also isn't as daunting as it may seem. Dallas owns a respectable defense, but the Mavericks continue to struggle on the offensive end. On top of that, Dallas is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and still has to travel to Milwaukee, with reported issues delaying their flight:
All of that has pushed the line toward the rested home team, and I'm going to be following that movement as well.
Best Bets:
NBA Record: 103-81-1 (+12.29 units)
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