The 2018-19 NBA season isn’t over, but it’s not too early to see how potential landing spots for Kevin Durant might portend NBA futures bets with value … or no value at all.
Value. You hear that word a lot in the gambling world, but what does it really mean? In simplest terms, value is the concept that relates to getting a good deal on a bet. In other words, getting an underdog that’s priced too high or getting an underdog that should really be favored, or even, a favorite that’s been given a spread that’s way too short.
Futures odds are no different, and when it comes to futures odds, it’s not the first time people have been taking bets on where players will eventually play. Kevin Durant is obviously the free agent everyone wants to land for next season, but where will he end up, and how will that affect futures prices?
The Top Three Likeliest Spots for KD—According to the Odds
Depending on the book, prices will vary slightly for where people think KD is going to land. Plain and simple, no one really knows. There are some rumors swirling about potential team-ups in New York with Kyrie Irving, but ultimately, the odds are just that—arbitrary prices. Let’s dig into the numbers:
Golden State Warriors – 115: As the favorite on the board, it makes sense. Kevin Durant has had tremendous success as a Golden State Warrior. If he stays with the Warriors, he undoubtedly makes them the favorites to win it all again.
New York Knicks +120: New York is considered basketball’s Mecca, and if KD takes his talents to the Big Apple, he would be the biggest star to play in New York City in his prime since Carmelo Anthony. The chance to be top fiddle and play in arguably the world’s largest media market might be enough to lure KD, hence the second highest price.
Los Angeles Clippers +1100: Here’s our first longshot on the list, ladies and gents. While the Clippers have shocked us in the past with big free-agent splashes, given the steep odds, don’t count on KD donning the Clippers’ red-and-white ensemble. Not much value here giving the lack of rumbling about him going to Los Angeles.
While these are our top three, according to rumblings around the league, it’s essentially a two-team race. If KD makes his decision official, it would be a titanic swing in odds for wherever he chooses. Let’s see how the top three contenders for the KD sweepstakes currently stand in the betting market for the 2020 NBA Championship.
Remember, while determining his free agent destination is a crapshoot, it’s worth taking a shot on a championship future as it would presently have value.
Top Three KD Destinations and Futures Odds
So far, here are how the top three KD sweepstakes teams stack up for a 2020 NBA Championship victory:
Golden State Warriors +175: While priced as a dog, don’t let it fool you. They’re the favorite to win it all as it stands presently. Assuming KD stays, and they can retain Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green, Golden State’s formidable core remains intact, undoubtedly making them a scary team to face in a winner-takes-all series for 2020.
New York Knicks +1600: Think about this: a New York Knicks team that was very, very bad in 2019 (and in the lottery) has better odds to win it all in the same conference as the Toronto Raptors, who are currently battling for an NBA Finals berth in the Eastern Conference finals. If you think KD goes to New York, there’s tremendous value at 16-1. If he dons a Knicks jersey next season, expect a massive shift in this number.
Los Angeles Clippers +1600: The Clippers, while listed as the third-placer in the projected KD sweepstakes, this number doesn’t really scream “value” the way the Knicks does. This number is likely placed way too high, and despite giving the Warriors a good battle in this year’s playoffs, it seemed to be more of a case of the Dubs letting their guard down than the Clips being anything legit.
We still have a season to finish here, so don’t go too crazy buying futures tickets, but keep in mind, wherever KD goes, a shift in the numbers is a guarantee — in a big, big way.