Lithuania vs Serbia Prediction & Picks: European Powers to Battle for Semifinal Berth

Eddie Griffin

Written by: Eddie Griffin

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Jonas Valanciunas FIBA World Cup 2023 Lithuania vs Serbia odds prediction picks cover


Four years ago, Lithuania fell short of expectations at the 2019 FIBA Basketball World Cup in China, failing to even make the quarter-finals after finishing third in their second-round group.

At this year’s tournament, they have already ensured a better result by reaching the quarters. But how much better will their final result be? If they can see off fellow European basketball power Serbia in Tuesday’s quarter-final matchup (4:45 am ET, ESPN+), they will be certain of a shot at their second-ever FIBA World Cup medal.

The previous tournament was also a disappointment for Serbia, who was one of the favorites but fell to Argentina in the quarters before settling for fifth place. So, redemption is up for grabs for both teams ahead of a huge game in Pasay. Who will move on to the semis to face either Canada or Slovenia?

Lithuania vs Serbia Odds

Odds are via Bovada as of Monday, September 4, 2023, at 10:00 pm ET.


  • Lithuania -1 (-105)
  • Serbia +1 (-115)


  • Over 170 (-110)
  • Under 170 (-110)


  • Lithuania -115
  • Serbia -105

Will More Outstanding Outside Shooting Send Lithuania to the Semis?

Vaidas Kariniauskas FIBA World Cup 2023 Lithuania Serbia odds prediction picks 9/5/23

Even if Lithuania hadn’t won on Sunday against the USA, they had already exceeded their 2019 result by qualifying for the quarters with four consecutive wins to open the tournament.

But by upsetting the Americans, Lithuania wrapped up top spot in Group J and served notice that they are a serious contender for a medal.

Results for Lithuania at the 2023 FIBA World Cup

  • Friday, August 25: Lithuania 93-67 Egypt
  • Sunday, August 27: Lithuania 96-66 Mexico
  • Tuesday, August 29: Lithuania 91-71 Montenegro
  • Friday, September 1: Lithuania 92-67 Greece
  • Sunday, September 3: Lithuania 110-104 USA

They jumped out to a 31-12 lead after a quarter, and they weathered the inevitable rally by responding every time it seemed like the USA might be on the verge of really making it a close contest.

Three-point shooting was a big reason they were able to close out Sunday’s stunning 110-104 win. Lithuania made 14 of 25 (56%) shots from outside, including four of eight in the fourth quarter.

Since making just 30.6% (11 of 36) of their threes in their tournament-opening win over Egypt, Lithuania has been outstanding from outside.

Three-Point Shooting for Lithuania in the 2023 FIBA World Cup

  • Egypt: 11 of 36 (30.6%)
  • Mexico: 10 of 23 (43.5%)
  • Montenegro: 8 of 17 (47.1%)
  • Greece: 15 of 24 (62.5%)
  • USA: 14 of 25 (56.0%)
  • Overall: 58 of 125 (46.4%)

Getting contributions up and down the roster has also been key to Lithuania’s success in the tournament.

In their opener against Egypt, three players scored in double figures, while four players scored in double figures in their proceeding wins over Mexico, Montenegro, and Greece. Against the USA, however, seven Lithuania players scored 10+ points, while two others scored nine points apiece.

Overall, of the 11 players who got on the floor for Lithuania, only Deividas Sirvydis (two points) was the only one who didn’t score at least six points. Anthony Edwards led the USA with 35 points, while Lithuania’s leading scorer, Vaidas Kariniauskas, scored 15 points. However, the U.S. didn’t get nearly the same team-wide effort that Lithuania did.

Serbia produced a similar effort Sunday to rout the Dominica15 Republic 112-79 and secure a place in the quarters, which was up in the air after they were upset by Italy on Friday.

Results for Serbia at the 2023 FIBA World Cup

  • Saturday, August 26: Serbia 105-63 China
  • Monday, August 28: Serbia 94-77 Puerto Rico
  • Wednesday, August 30: Serbia 115-83 South Sudan
  • Friday, September 1: Italy 78-76 Serbia
  • Sunday, September 3: Serbia 112-79 Dominican Republic

Six players scored in double figures, led by 20 from Atlanta’s Bogdan Bogdanovic, who is averaging 18.4 PPG in the FIBA World Cup.

Both teams have done a lot of scoring in this tournament, and both have shot 50% or better from the field in four of their five games. Will we see the scoring continue for both teams in this matchup?

Lithuania vs Serbia Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Lithuania to win

Picks: Lithuania ML (-115 at Bovada) & Lithuania/Serbia over 170 (-110 at Bovada)

Even without two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic, this Serbia team is still very, very good.

However, Lithuania’s performances are hard to ignore. The win over USA was the big statement of their credentials as a contender, but their blowouts of Montenegro and Greece were also highly impressive. I don’t see them letting up or falling apart against Serbia.

Where to Bet on Lithuania vs Serbia and the 2023 FIBA World Cup

The Lithuania vs Serbia betting odds mentioned in this article came from Bovada, but they aren’t the only sports betting site out there offering 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup odds.

Here are some of the reputable online sportsbooks that we recommend for betting on the FIBA World Cup and other basketball competitions and leagues like the NBA and WNBA:

In addition to odds for each game of the tournament, you can find FIBA World Cup futures odds at these books. We have reviewed each of the above books and highly recommend them all.

If you don’t have an account at any of those sites mentioned, check out our reviews to learn more about what they have to offer.

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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