(8/8) MLB | Today’s Best Bets on the Diamond
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Sat Aug 08, 2026, 2:02 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-140
8
-105o
+154
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
145
8
-110u
-140
We're officially at the point in the MLB season where it feels like someone's turned up the difficulty and we're starting to blame the baseballs. Call me crazy, but the ball isn't flying and the weather hasn't drastically changed yet.
Big thank you to the guys over at Ballpark Pal for putting together the data and validating what most of us have been feeling for about a month.
There is lots of evidence that the HR environment is different since the All-Star Break, but the exact cause is still unclear (long post, not AI, tldr at the bottom)
Usually when there's a significant change to the baseball, it shows up in distance/flight/drag data. While you… pic.twitter.com/6rAGwbFB57
— Ballpark Pal (@BallparkPal) August 7, 2026
That being said, we've got a full slate of MLB games and first pitch is in the early afternoon. I've got three more props locked in, let's jump right into it.
The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions.
MLB Cheat Sheet
- BA — Batting Average
- oBA — Opponent Batting Average
- xBA — Expected BA
- SLG — Slugging Percentage
- ISO — Isolated Power
- wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
- HH% — Hard Hit Rate
- BRL% — Barrel Rate
- HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
- XBH — Extra Base Hit
- RBI — Runs Batted In
Today's Best Bets
Brandon Marsh o1.5 HRR (-130) | Lucky Rebel
Not a name we've bet often this year, but Brandon Marsh and this entire Phillies lineup have a fantastic matchup today.
On the mound for the Blue Jays is great Max Scherzer. At 42-years old, it's only fitting Max has seen a little regression; but across eight starts this year, it's been bad.
Scherzer's got a 7.92 ERA this year, he's given up 9 home runs in just 30 innings of work and he's been especially bad against left handed bats. Max is allowing lefties to hit .333 on the year, with a .615 SLG and 6 home runs.
Historically, most of this Phillies lineup has also done great against Scherzer. Marsh is batting .222 in his career against Max, but he's got a 17% BRL and 50% HH in 9 plate appearances.
All five hitters (projected) in front of Marsh today are batting 270 or better against Scherzer and that just means more people on base and more opportunities for runs to score.
Marsh is batting .300 at home this year, 9 of his 16 home runs have come here at Citizen's Bank Park and he's got a 61 combined runs/RBIs here.
Jo Adell o1.5 HRR (-114) | Lucky Rebel
We bet on Jo Adell yesterday, as did the whole world, and he was hit TWICE by a pitch. You can't make it up. That being said, he's once again facing a lefty and Jo Adell crushes lefties.
He a career high 37 home runs last year and despite a down season this year, he's still a nightmare for left handed pitchers.
Against lefties, Adell's batting average jumps to .306, with a .573 SLG and 10 of his 16 home runs have come against left handed pitching. Tonight he faces off with Anthony Kay of the Chicago Whit Sox.
Kay's got a 4.18 ERA this year and he really struggles with right handed bats. Kay's given up 12 of his 14 home runs allowed to righties and he's allowing them to hit .276 with a 43% HH. He's got a 52% flyball rate this year
Kay's also relying heavily on a mix of different fastball against righties this year and like I said yesterday; that's never a good idea against Adell.
Jake Bauers o1.5 HRR (+105) | Lucky Rebel
The Milwaukee Brewers are one of the best team's in baseball and while most of it has to do with this pitching staff; this lineups pretty damn good too. Jake Bauers is hitting .267 on the year, he's got a .500 SLG and 54% HH.
Four of the Brewers top five bats in the line are batting .267 or better and while they might not have one guy with 35 home runs; they've got four guys with at least 10 and 3 with 16 or more.
Milwaukee ranks 5th in runs scored, 5th in batting average and 2nd in walks drawn. On the bump for the Twins is Taj Bradley. Bradley's got a 4.17 ERA on the road this year, where he's giving up 1.4 HR/9 and a .172 ISO.
Bradley's struggled against lefties this year, 12 of the 17 home runs he's given up have come against lefties and 11 have come on the road.
Looking for More
More MLB News
MLB Betting News
Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Props August 8th, 2026
MLB Betting News
(8/7) MLB | Tonight's Best Bets on the Diamond
MLB Betting News
MLB Picks and Predictions for August 6, 2026
MLB Betting News
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, August 5: Sticking with Skenes
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce for all my picks and sports takes you didn't ask for! Follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks, and news!
Looking for a great promo for a new sportsbook? Check out our reviews of the best sportsbooks.
You may know me as ‘VSaaauce’. I’ve been a die hard hoops fan my entire life. I’ve been betting on the NBA/NCAAB/NFL/MLB for six years now, each year gaining more and more knowledge about being a profitable handicapper. I’m eager to learn, and eager to pass on everything I’ve gained over the last few years. I started my Twitter page four years ago, and this community makes me so thankful I did. Outside of sports and handicapping, I enjoy traveling, hoopin, a strong espresso and I’m currently studying to obtain my MD. I’m all about the vibes, good vibes only. If that sounds like you, follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.