Turf Paradise Monday: 8 Race Thoroughbred Program Analysis

Chris Adams

Turf Paradise will run Monday through Friday this week. The track is a haven for bettors who do well with low level claiming horses.

Monday Full Card Analysis

Turf Paradise Race 1

Post: 1:25 PM PT; Purse: $18,900 Starter Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6

  • #2 DOZO (7-2) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & form.
  • #3 WHERE'S FRANKIE (5-2) is worth a look here given edges in stamina & power rating.
  • #5 BULLY BABY (9-5) makes sense as the favorite boasting the top record at the distance & fastest early pace numbers. I prefer others at a better price but won’t get beat by this one.
  • #6 CARRIE'S SUCCESS (4-1) is a runner that is proven at the distance so maybe this one makes a little success.

Selections: 2-3-5-6

Turf Paradise Race 2

Post: 1:52 PM PT; Purse: $12,320 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

  • #4 UPPER ROOM (7-2) should be on the front early and will look to take these runners all the way around.
  • #7 TIZ MANNY (9-2) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form.
  • #2 HERMANO (5-2) gets Enrique Garcia in the saddle with the best power rating in the group.
  • #1 GEORGIAN ROAD (5-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.

Selections: 4-7-2-1

Turf Paradise Race 3

Post: 2:19 PM PT; Purse: $15,960 Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

  • #1 CROOKED FINGER RAY (4-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & pace numbers.
  • #7 SNAZZY DRESSER (3-1) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.
  • #2 OUTLAW (7-2) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & form.
  • #6 BLOW MY MIND (9-2) also has a solid overall power rating and could have an outsiders shot in this spot.

Selections: 1-7-2-6

Turf Paradise Race 4

Post: 2:46 PM PT; Purse: $15,120 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

  • #5 WARFRONT FIGHTER (6-1) has a great shot in the race given the speed figures & power rating. I like this one to pull the upset here.
  • #7 BEAR BRIAN (5-2) looks to be the class of the field and will get Glen Corbett in the irons.
  • #1 MANCUSO AT THE MIC (4-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race.
  • #6 REDDISH (2-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.

Selections: 5-7-1-6

Turf Paradise Race 5

Post: 3:13 PM PT; Purse: $29,900 Allowance, 7 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 9

Ax Man will try the turf at Turf Paradise.
Ax Man wins the Sir Barton Stakes on dirt
  • #7 AX MAN (4-1) was once on the Derby trail for Bob Baffert. We’re along way from those days and this runner is nowhere near the buzz he received early in his career. Nevertheless, this one seems to just have this group outclassed.
  • #4 CHEST CANDY (5-1) is a de facto 2nd pick having made fewer missteps than the other runners in the field.
  • #2 HARD TO DENY (3-1) has to be respected based on the connections. Troiani will give the leg up to Ceballos here.
  • #5 HOUSE LIMIT (6-1) has a solid power rating and is probably more likely underneath than in the winner’s circle.

Selections: 7-4-2-5

Turf Paradise Race 6

Post: 3:40 PM PT; Purse: $18,900 Maiden Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

  • #2 GODGUNSNCOUNTRY (9-2) looks formidable here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & class.
  • #4 HANNIGAN (4-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today.
  • #8 SHADYFIED (5-1) is in a soft maiden claiming race with the best breeding in the group.
  • #5 CREATIVE ONE (3-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.

Selections: 2-4-8-5 (Best Bet: #2 GODGUNSNCOUNTRY)

Turf Paradise Race 7

Post: 4:07 PM PT; Purse: $13,300 Maiden Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

  • #5 SON OF SMALLS (5-2) looks like a strong prospect edging the field in several key handicapping factors including record at the distance & blood lines.
  • #7 JUNGLE ROAR (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in class & connections.
  • #6 TRUTH TO POWER (8-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed figures earned in the early part of the career.
  • #1 WINNING MAGIC (4-1) draws the rail, but I think this one gives up quite a bit to the rest of these.

Selections: 5-7-6-1

Turf Paradise Race 8

Post: 4:34 PM PT; Purse: $14,140 Starter Optional Claiming, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 11

  • #9 HAPPY HAPPY HAPPY (5-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse's form & power rating. This one should leave plenty of people feeling his namesake after the race.
  • #5 JUST GRACE (7-2) has speed figures that aren’t that far off of the best in this field. This one is in with a definite shot.
  • #6 A DIME FOR ME (4-1) has the fastest speed figures and has been running them against some of the toughest competition.
  • #2 WILLING TO BURN (8-1) could be the sneaky play in this spot. The horse will be ridden by Vergara who is having a very good meet at Turf Paradise.

Selections: 9-5-6-2

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