There are multiple horses making a step up in class for this race and even the favorites have not been really destroying lower class fields…
Pace will be a factor as always and that is especially the case at Saratoga as there appears to be a bit of track bias.
One horse might be able to get a relatively easy lead, from the outside and that might be enough to go all the way at long odds.
The morning line odds favorites all have questions to answer and, in this case, betting on low odds is a losing proposition…Better to take a risk betting on a good longshot.
Number 1, AURA ROSE is one among many who are making a step up in class but for AURA ROSE the step is big. She has failed to win in 2018 and yet has been racing in everything from ungraded stakes to claiming races. The silver lining is that she comes back to dirt but her races on the surface last year were not so impressive either. Add a poor post position and it is a hard pass on AURA ROSE today.
Number 2 WONDERMENT claimed a couple of wins in state-bred stakes last year and places this year, so class wise she is coming close for this one. The speed figures have not been so great except a couple of races on a sloppy surface. WONDERMENT is in luck today as there is rain in the forecast… The distance might be a bit of an issue and the post position is not favorable. And then there is the question of the 6 months layoff… There are a lot of question marks, so I don’t recommend WONDERMENT except at the bottom of exotic bets.
Number 3, IMPASSE does not have the most impressive past performances. She has been failing repeatedly at the Optional Claiming levels and only has a fourth place in a graded stakes. There seems to be some track bias at Saratoga and the come from way behind style of IMPASSE is detrimental apparently. It looks difficult for IMPASSE today.
Number 4, COME DANCING has just one loss in her short career and it came in a very similar setting, 7 furlongs stakes race. She got literally run over that day but rebounded less than a week ago after a long layoff. It was an easy win on July 25 right here at Saratoga. It is very possible that COME DANCING is still in form and if she can improve from it a little, she can win today. We are talking about a longer race though and she seems to like the short ones. I assume that she will also try a patient approach and that’s not a plus this year at Saratoga. She seems to have a decent shot here, but the odds might drop and then I don’t think it is such a good bet.
Number 5 CAIRENN has been racing like clockwork with 4 races in very similar speed figures. Too bad the last three were losses, albeit a very close one last out in a similar class level as today. CAIRENN likes to press the pace and starts from an OK post position for it. If there is a lot of speed in front, she might have a good shot but on the likely sloppy track, it is hard to make ground… The distance might be a bit of a problem, but she is the one who ran the best in this class category. Interesting win bet if the odds remain high but she should be somewhere in the exotic tickets.
Number 6, YORKIEPOO PRINCESS had a hard return race last month and posted a career best speed figure. She failed to win it and one can wonder if the hard race took a toll… Her trainer is not the most experienced, so it is hard to tell if the race last out was a warmup for this particular target race but it is possible. It does not look to me like she was really asked too much so I suspect it was indeed a workout. YORKIEPOO PRINCESS has early speed and that has been an advantage so far at Saratoga this year. She has an outside post position too, which is a plus with an apparent track bias… Last year, she was racing against tougher opposition and was not ridiculed. She needs another career best to win it today but with a favorable setup and long enough odds, that’s a valid bet to make.
Number 7, HEAVENLY SCORE took a long break early in the year and came back last month to almost win a Grade 3 race on the turf. Another month and a half of break and here she is, showing off great workouts in preparation for this one. I am not sure that it all makes sense though. Why come race in a lower class dirt race after a quite good turf graded stakes attempt? HEAVENLY SCORE did not do so well at the start of the year in a similar setting, so I am a bit worried and at one of the favorites in the race, I think there is value in staying away.
Number 8, YOUR LOVE makes only her second start of the year after losing the last out race after a relatively bad trip. She did beat out her opponent of today YORKIEPOO PRINCESS though. She works for one of the hottest trainers this year at Saratoga and he knows how to bring them back to form for a stakes race. The outside post position is good news and YOUR LOVE has raced well in the rain. She probably will try to press the pace, but she does have some early speed. The versatility can come in handy. Maybe she prefers a shorter race and of course she will go out at very low odds. I don’t think there will be value betting on her with such low odds and question marks.
There is no clear-cut favorite in this one and the class aspect is particularly puzzling. No horse has dominated the lower or similar class level and no horse is really coming down.
The one that most fit the step down in class angle is YORKIEPOO PRINCESS but those races were last year and the comeback might have been a bit taxing. Still, I think that she is the best value bet in this race.
CAIRENN is another one who seems to have the class required to win today and she has been running very consistently. I think that she has a good shot at being on the podium at decent odds.
WIN BET at 6-1 or more on Number 6 YORKIEPOO PRINCESS
Exacta Box 6-5