Keeneland Closing Weekend: Wednesday Analysis & Selections

Chris Adams

Wednesday will open the final weekend of racing at Keeneland. The Kentucky track will race Wednesday through Saturday before yielding to the Churchill Downs fall meet.

Track Profile

Keeneland has shown what some like to call bias this meet. This has been particularly strong in the last couple of weeks. The biggest lesson for handicappers is that early speed has been very dangerous on the main track particular when runners are in the inner parts of the tracks.

The turf has been a bit a more fair, but horses still aren’t making up massive amounts of ground. The moisture in the ground coupled with cooler fall temperatures last weekend seemed to press this profile even more toward horses on or near the lead.

Race tracks are fickle and just because a certain run style worked last week, doesn’t mean it will work again this week. As a player you should be looking for early signals to suggest that these trends persist or that a significant change has occurred.

Wednesday Analysis

Wednesday will not offer the Keeneland all turf pick 3 as only 2 races on the card are slated to be run on the turf.

Keeneland Race 1- Early Pick 5

Post: 1:00 PM ET; Purse: $33,000 Starter Allowance, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

#3 DIVA BANKER is the class of the field and looks like the right favorite at 5-2. #6 ISABELLACANNETELLA is at odds of 6-1 and looks to have a pace edge over the others in here. #8 ONLY REWARD'S is a short price and not without a shot. #7 MIS ELAIN E US goes out for sneaky good connections and could be a big factor here.

Selections: 3-6-8-7

Keeneland Race 2

Post: 1:32 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 15

#2 TIZ OF THEE could be one to spring the upset at 6-1. As always players will want to watch the tote board for indicators that this one is live. #1 CIRCLE BACK JACK is at odds of 3-1 and has speed figures to win here today. Looking for longshots to fill out the tickets, I like #5 OVERLANDER and #13 PRESSURE.

Selections: 2-1-5-13

Keeneland Race 3- Pick 6

Post: 2:04 PM ET; Purse: $32,000 Claiming, 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 9

#5 HARD STING seems really tough to beat in this spot. The 3-1 morning line would be a gift. #9 CHASE TRACKER is at odds of 4-1 has speed and pace numbers that make him competitive with this group. #8 BUGLE OF WAR is favored and should have no problem getting the distance. #6 MAJOR FRONTIER is at odds of 5-1 for Ignacio Correas and James Graham.

Selections: 5-9-8-6 (Best Bet #5)

Keeneland Race 4- Late Pick 5

Post: 2:36 PM ET; Purse: $46,000 Starter Allowance, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

#5 BEVERLY PARK should have a pace edge on the group. #8 COVE BLUE is classy and has been running well, but his jockey has been absolutely brutal failing to earn a victory in almost 50 starts. #3 MACHISMO has proven successful at this distance before. With the top 3 being such short prices I like #2 KITTEN'S MAN to factor at a massive price and try to milk any value out of this race.

Selections: 5-8-3-2

Keeneland Race 5

Post: 3:08 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 16

#13 MOUNT KENYA is well bred for this spot but will need to beat the post to get there. Nevertheless the gelding looks good on paper. #9 RARE STRIPE is at odds of 3-1 has good class numbers in this spot. #14 FEBRUARY SON, like the top choice will need scratches to draw in, but seems like a legitimate runner. #16 TROPICAL TORNADO will be ridden by Adam “The Biscuit”, Beschizza, but is another who will need help to get in. #2 AMERICAN DIAMOND, #8 BATTLE OF BRITAIN, and #4 COOL RAGS would be alternates if the AEs are unable to get in.

Selections: 13-9-14-16-2-8-4

Keeneland Race 6

Post: 3:40 PM ET; Purse: $86,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

#6 READY TO ANSWER appears to be the speed and the class of the field. This one should be tough to beat. #7 NAME REJECTED has the right pace edge that could prove useful as they turn for home. #2 SPEITFUL SAM is at odds of 3-1 and has numbers competitive with the top of this crew. #3 ILLBOOTENGOTTY a sneaky long shot who has been good at the distance in the past.

Selections: 6-7-2-3

Keeneland Race 7

Post: 4:12 PM ET; Purse: $88,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 14

#1 MORE THAN UNUSUAL will likely be hammered at the window as the Brad Cox filly will be ridden for Florent Geroux. #13 PALLAS ATHENE has pace and speed figures that don’t make her impossible at 50-1. #3 TIMELESS ROSE is another bomb who just might like the set up. I’m not convinced she can win, but could provide some healthy returns underneath. #12 VIVIDLY is probably the most realistic threat to the favored runner here with Gafflione in the saddle.

Selections: 1-13-3-12

Keeneland Race 8

Post: 4:44 PM ET; Purse: $52,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 14

#2 MISS REMMIA is at odds of 8-1 and has done nothing wrong to this point. #10 ABSTRACT MOMENT is at odds of 10-1 and has good speed numbers to date. #6 MALIBU MARIE goes out for Brad Cox at odds of 7-2. #7 TRIPLE P is at odds of 4-1 and could steal the race on the front end.

Selections: 2-10-6-7

Betting News Handicapping Tools

For more information about the Keeneland races and the horses, check out the artificial intelligence picks offered on the Betting News website. All content is completely free and uses machine learning to establish horse’s win probability based on analysis of thousands of races.

Breeder’s Cup News and Notes

  • Maxfield and Essential Quality will both be wrapping up their careers at year’s end. The prominent Godolphin runners will be off to begin their 2nd career as studs.
  • Flavien Prat, who had first call on United in the Breeder’s Cup is opting to ride for Chad Brown instead. The jockey will now be aboard Domestic Spending in the Breeder’s Cup Turf.

Next week Betting News will have daily coverage of the Breeder’s Cup leading into Future Stars Friday and Saturday.

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