Keeneland Fall Meet Hits the Wire Saturday Featuring the Fayette Stakes

Chris Adams

Saturday marks the end of the Keeneland fall meet. Fresh on the heels of a 25-1 upset in the Friday feature, the track looks to go out with a bang.

Closing Day Analysis

Keeneland Race 1

Post: 1:00 PM ET; Purse: $32,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

To start the closing Keeneland card I like #5 INDIAN BELLA who rates out best in stamina and overall power rating. #2 ANGEL OF VERDUN comes in at 4-1 and has won over the distance in the past. #6 OUR CLOSURE has the best speed figures and class numbers in the group but sits at a nice price. #8 SOCIAL CIRCLE should appreciate the track profile which has benefited early speed throughout the meet.

Selections: 5-2-6-8

Keeneland Race 2

Post: 1:32 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/8 Miles on Turf; Entries: 16

#3 PEARL EARRING looks tough here based on speed figures, class, and being forwardly placed.. #2 PORONUI (10-1), #4 BELLA ASTERN (4-1), and #9 FREEDOM ROSE (4-1) are all other contenders who could be ready to throw up a big effort. Players would be wise to watch the tote board before the race for possible indications of “smart money”. Big hits, especially early in the wagering, could suggest the word is out on the backside. Inversely, one of the shorter prices drifting up could suggest just the opposite.

Selections: 3-2-4-9

Keeneland Race 3

Post: 2:04 PM ET; Purse: $32,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8

#1 CACHIRULO is at odds of 12-1 the perfect horse to play in this spot. The horse rates highest in a number of metrics and could spring the big upset in a race where no one has yet proven to be a winner. #5 BAJA FOG sits at a fair 6-1 on the morning line. Although I’m not a huge fan of the top 2 on the morning line, they do make sense. #6 LOONSHOT is at odds of 3-1 while #8 ILLUSTRIOUS goes out for top connections at 5-2. Both could win, but the price is too short for my taste here.

Selections: 1-5-6-8

Keeneland Race 4

Post: 2:36 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, About 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

#3 KIZZY B is at odds of 5-1 speed figures pace ratings. #1 SURREALIST is at odds of 3-1 stamina class. #5 SOLARRI is at odds of 12-1 strikes. #2 UPANDCOMINGSTAR is at odds of 2.5-1 connections form

Selections: 3-1-5-2

Keeneland Race 5

Post: 3:08 PM ET; Purse: $86,000 Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 13

#2 KNEESNHIPS is at odds of 9-2 but has an edge in speed and stamina on this group. #10 BHOMA is also 9-2 on the morning line and could get a perfect setup in today’s race. #11 ROUGHLY A DIAMOND has some sneaky class in the past performances that could allow for a much improved performance today. #1 SPARKLE BLUE comes in great form and could be ready to run a top class effort.

Selections: 2-10-11-1

Keeneland Race 6

Post: 3:40 PM ET; Purse: $90,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

#4 MUCH BETTER hasn’t done anything wrong in the recent efforts and is a threat here. #6 TOP SEED looks to be the class of this field and may be happy to run among friends here. #7 FACT FINDING goes out for Diodoro and Cohen and will be near the front early. #2 PYRON is at odds of 3-1 and enters with the strongest overall power numbers

Selections: 4-6-7-2

Keeneland Race 7

Post: 4:12 PM ET; Purse: $150,000 Bowman Mill S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

#7 MY PRANKSTER tops this field on speed figures and looks to be a major contender here. The problem is there isn’t much separating the top of this group and 5-2 is a tough price to swallow. #4 NAKATOMI goes out for Wesley Ward and Tyler Gaffalione who have to be respected at Keeneland. #2 CHATTALOT is yet another at the top of the market that looks to have real shot. #6 FREELANCER comes in earning the highest power rating in the group.

Selections: 7-4-2-6

Keeneland Race 8

Post: 4:44 PM ET; Purse: $150,000 Bryan Station S., 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 13

#10 YES THIS TIME may be able to kick home past all of these and looks a major threat. #11 CAMP HOPE is at odds of 3-1 and boasts the best speed numbers in the group. #9 SCARLETT SKY gets one of the best turf timing riders in the country aboard as Joel Rosario will get the leg up. #7 POINT ME BY is an interesting exotic player at 10-1.

Selections: 10-11-9-7

Keeneland Race 9

Post: 5:16 PM ET; Purse: $200,000 Hagyard Fayette S., 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 9

#7 CODE OF HONOR has the best speed and class numbers. He looks good here. #5 INDEPENDENCE HALL should have no problem with the distance and may just get the perfect setup here. #1 SLEEPY EYES TODD has found good form of late and may be ready to pop a big one. #4 NIGHT OPS will go out for Brad Cox ridden by Florent Geroux.

Selections: 7-5-1-4

Keeneland Race 10

Post: 5:48 PM ET; Purse: $84,000 Maiden Special Weight, About 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 13

#1 FAMED is favored and will be singled on the back end of my horizontal tickets. The horse’s run style and speed figure edge over the group make her an obvious player. #9 HALO OF FIRE is at odds of 4.5-1 has run against some good horses and may enjoy this group a bit more. #2 MY FRIEND AMY has a foundation that may serve her well as the horses look to get the seven furlongs. #6 BUNDUKI is an interesting player as a deep long shot.

Selections: 1-9-2-6 (Best Bet)

Betting News Handicapping Tools

For more information about the Keeneland races and the horses, check out the artificial intelligence picks offered on the Betting News website. All content is completely free and uses machine learning to establish horse’s win probability based on analysis of thousands of races.

Breeder’s Cup News and Notes

  • Diamond Wow was withdrawn from the Breeder’s Cup after a recent work. The trainer reported the horse came out with soreness. Out of an abundance of caution the horse will get time to rest and recover to avoid problems down the road.
  • Todd Pletcher announced that Annapolis will withdraw from the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf due to a bone chip in the rear ankle.

Betting News will continue covering the Breeders’ Cup in the week leading up to the two day racing festival.

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