Indiana Grand Monday: Finding Value with New Handicapping Tools

Chris Adams

Last week Betting News added new handicapping tools to their website for many tracks including Indiana Grand. These metrics, driven by machine learning, can help players unlock value on their preferred horses.

What is Value?

Value is one of the most debated issues in horse racing. Some will argue that no horse under a certain price is value, while others will say that any price can offer value depending on the talent and setup the horse is projected to get.

For the purposes of this piece value will be defined as any horse that goes off at odds at or higher than their fair odds. Fair odds will be established using Betting News’ win percentages which can be found on the picks page.

Asia Asia has a 15% chance to win the first race at Indiana Grand on Monday
Asia Asia in the race has a 15% chance to win. This number can be used to determine a fair price on the horse to help bettors ensure they are betting value.

Converting Win Percentages to Fair Odds

Before looking at the Monday card at Indiana Grand, the first step in this process is understanding how to convert win percentages into fractional odds.

While there is a mathematical equation that can be used a simple reference chart tends to be a much easier way to quickly assess fair odds for a horse.

A table converting odds to percentages can be a quick reference for determining fair odds.
On the left side of this chart is the fair odds while the right said represents the winning percentage of the horse.

Indiana Grand Monday Value Analysis

For the following analysis each horse will be listed by program number, name, morning line odds, win probability according to Betting News, fair odds, and whether the horse is an underlay or overlay based on the morning line.

Indiana Grand Race 1

  • #1 Asia Asia (KY) (12/1); Win Probability: 15%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Overlay
  • #2 Beautiful D (IN) (3/1); Win Probability: 17%; Fair Odds: 5-1; Underlay
  • #3 Beyondspotlight (IN) (15/1); Win Probability: 8%; Fair Odds: 12-1; Overlay
  • #4 Free to Run (FL) (7/5); Win Probability: 25%; Fair Odds: 3-1; Underlay
  • #5 Qt Bliegh (KY) (9/5); Win Probability: 22%; Fair Odds: 7-2; Underlay
  • #6 Vol de Soleil (KY) (12/1); Win Probability: 13%; Fair Odds: 7-1; Overlay

Indiana Grand Race 2

  • #1 Al Millon Bob (CA) (3/1); Win Probability: 19%; Fair Odds: 9-2; Underlay
  • #2 Go Manny Go (KY) (8/5); Win Probability: 17%; Fair Odds: 5-1; Underlay
  • #3 Sonic Burn (KY) (5/1); Win Probability: 20%; Fair Odds: 4-1; Overlay
  • #4 C F V Nobodycares (NY) (20/1); Win Probability: 15%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Overlay
  • #5 Emerald's Bolt (FL) (9/5); Win Probability: 15%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Underlay
  • #6 Viserion Ice (KY) (30/1); Win Probability: 15%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Overlay

Indiana Grand Race 3

  • #1 Firery Tale (KY) (9/2); Win Probability: 16%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Underlay
  • #2 Tomato Bill (KY) (1/1); Win Probability: 17%; Fair Odds: 5-1; Underlay
  • #3 Unbridled Beast (IN) (5/1); Win Probability: 12%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Underlay
  • #4 Rooster (IN) (30/1); Win Probability: 17%; Fair Odds: 5-1; Overlay
  • #5 Good One (KY) (15/1); Win Probability: 16%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Overlay
  • #6 Jova (IN) (5/2); Win Probability: 22%; Fair Odds: 7-2; Underlay

Indiana Grand Race 4

  • #1 The Queens Jules (KY) (9/2); Win Probability: 22%; Fair Odds: 7-2; Overlay
  • #2 Two Last Words (IN) (6/1); Win Probability: 10%; Fair Odds: 9-1; Underlay
  • #3 Tapit's Spirit (KY) (2/1); Win Probability: 13%; Fair Odds: 7-1; Underlay
  • #4 Bandido de Amores (IN) (3/1); Win Probability: 16%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Underlay
  • #5 Powell (KY) (5/1); Win Probability: 16%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Underlay
  • #6 Little Kansas (IN) (20/1); Win Probability: 12%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Overlay
  • #7 Slick Silver (FL) (8/1); Win Probability: 11%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Fair Value

Indiana Grand Race 5

  • #1 Heirloom Kitten (KY) (8/1); Win Probability: 12%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Fair Value
  • #2 King's Ovation (KY) (4/1); Win Probability: 11%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Underlay
  • #3 Dean Martini (KY) (5/2); Win Probability: 21%; Fair Odds: 4-1; Underlay
  • #4 Mr. Quality (KY) (9/2); Win Probability: 12%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Underlay
  • #5 Gold Money (KY) (15/1); Win Probability: 12%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Overlay
  • #6 Ego (KY) (2/1); Win Probability: 18%; Fair Odds: 5-1; Underlay
  • #7 Nepal Up (KY) (12/1); Win Probability: 14%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Overlay

Indiana Grand Race 6

  • #1 Perfect Smokey Eye (IN) (9/2); Win Probability: 14%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Underlay
  • #2 Express Lady (IN) (9/2); Win Probability: 10%; Fair Odds: 9-1; Underlay
  • #3 Royal's Girl (IN) (5/2); Win Probability: 19%; Fair Odds: 9-2; Underlay
  • #4 Tappin Into Summer (IN) (7/2); Win Probability: 16%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Underlay
  • #5 Wished (IN) (30/1); Win Probability: 8%; Fair Odds: 12-1; Overlay
  • #6 Peekachica (IN) (20/1); Win Probability: 10%; Fair Odds: 9-1; Overlay
  • #7 Tiny Sneakers (IN) (3/1); Win Probability: 13%; Fair Odds: 7-1; Underlay
  • #8 Smooth Justice (IN) (15/1); Win Probability: 10%; Fair Odds: 9-1; Overlay

Indiana Grand Race 7

  • #1 Quick Master (KY) (8/1); Win Probability: 9%; Fair Odds: 10-1; Underlay
  • #2 Imperial Cause (KY) (8/1); Win Probability: 7%; Fair Odds: 14-1; Underlay
  • #3 Elusive Freud (NY) (7/2); Win Probability: 12%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Underlay
  • #4 Ronnie's Vice (NY) (30/1); Win Probability: 14%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Overlay
  • #5 Succeed (KY) (12/1); Win Probability: 16%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Overlay
  • #6 Rowley's Dream (NY) (4/1); Win Probability: 12%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Underlay
  • #7 Bad Decisions (KY) (5/1); Win Probability: 7%; Fair Odds: 14-1; Underlay
  • #8 Rare N Ready (KY) (20/1); Win Probability: 6%; Fair Odds: 16-1; Overlay
  • #9 Erase (KY) (5/2); Win Probability: 17%; Fair Odds: 5-1; Underlay

Indiana Grand Race 8

  • #1 Lassie Linda (IN) (20/1); Win Probability: 7%; Fair Odds: 14-1; Overlay
  • #2 Ima Barrel Racer (IN) (8/1); Win Probability: 12%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Fair Value
  • #3 Princess Consuela (IN) (5/1); Win Probability: 11%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Underlay
  • #4 Khushbu (IN) (5/1); Win Probability: 13%; Fair Odds: 7-1; Underlay
  • #5 Rosy Glow (IN) (8/1); Win Probability: 13%; Fair Odds: 7-1; Overlay
  • #6 Sweet Sky (IN) (8/1); Win Probability: 13%; Fair Odds: 7-1; Overlay
  • #7 America Rules (IN) (5/2); Win Probability: 8%; Fair Odds: 12-1; Underlay
  • #8 Justa Doll (IN) (8/1); Win Probability: 8%; Fair Odds: 12-1; Underlay
  • #9 Wiladene (IN) (20/1); Win Probability: 6%; Fair Odds: 16-1; Overlay
  • #10 Go Get Em (IN) (10/1); Win Probability: 8%; Fair Odds: 12-1; Underlay

Indiana Grand Race 9

  • #1 Skippinjustice (IN) (15/1); Win Probability: 4%; Fair Odds: 24-1; Underlay
  • #2 Amazingness (IN) (2/5); Win Probability: 16%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Underlay
  • #3 Song of the Siren (IN) (30/1); Win Probability: 9%; Fair Odds: 10-1; Overlay
  • #4 Sister Justice (IN) (6/1); Win Probability: 17%; Fair Odds: 5-1; Overlay
  • #5 Wrappinjustice (IN) (12/1); Win Probability: 10%; Fair Odds: 9-1; Overlay
  • #6 Maybe Prize (IN) (50/1); Win Probability: 8%; Fair Odds: 12-1; Overlay
  • #7 Giddy Gootz (IN) (30/1); Win Probability: 5%; Fair Odds: 19-1; Overlay
  • #8 Herkindofjustice (IN) (8/1); Win Probability: 14%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Overlay
  • #9 Beyond Justice (IN) (12/1); Win Probability: 15%; Fair Odds: 6-1; Overlay

Indiana Grand Race 10- Quarter Horses

  • #1 Alota Lovin (IN) (6/1); Win Probability: 12%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Underlay
  • #2 Hidden Prize (TX) (8/1); Win Probability: 9%; Fair Odds: 10-1; Underlay
  • #3 Liaison On Fire (OK) (10/1); Win Probability: 11%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Overlay
  • #4 Tres of Glory (NY) (20/1); Win Probability: 8%; Fair Odds: 12-1; Overlay
  • #5 Stolin Diamonds (KY) (30/1); Win Probability: 6%; Fair Odds: 16-1; Overlay
  • #6 Country Maker (IN) (20/1); Win Probability: 4%; Fair Odds: 24-1; Underlay
  • #7 Go Go Yayo (FL) (12/1); Win Probability: 8%; Fair Odds: 12-1; Fair Value
  • #8 Fabulous Barbara (OK) (8/5); Win Probability: 10%; Fair Odds: 9-1; Underlay
  • #9 Immeasurable Joy (SC) (10/1); Win Probability: 5%; Fair Odds: 19-1; Underlay
  • #10 Sixes Takin Cash (IN) (7/2); Win Probability: 12%; Fair Odds: 8-1; Underlay
  • Also Eligible: #11 J V Two (CA) (30/1); Win Probability: 7%; Fair Odds: 14-1; Overlay
  • Also Eligible: #12 Corona Cartel Lady (CA) (20/1); Win Probability: 7%; Fair Odds: 14-1; Overlay

Betting Value

The data above for Indiana Grand is based on morning line odds. These odds could change dramatically between now and the time the races go off. Scratches could also impact the likelihood of winning percentages which would in turn change fair value.

When making win bets on these horses, there are two ways to approach betting value.

Most Likely Value

This is my preferred strategy. Studies of pari-mutuel markets have shown that the public is pretty good at identifying the top horses. When placing your win bets, find the horse at the shortest price who is offering fair value or is an overlay. Bet that horse to win.

Biggest Overlay

Another strategy that players use is betting the biggest overlay. Even if a horse is the 4th or 5th choice, they will take it over a couple shorter priced value horses because the gap between the fair odds and the current odds is so great.

When a player uses this strategy they will cash bigger tickets, but should also be prepared for much longer losing streaks.

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