Horseshoe Indianapolis Meet Continues Tuesday 4/26
Horseshoe Indianapolis kicked off it’s 2022 meet last week. This week they will run another 2 day racing calendar featuring thoroughbreds and quarters.
Lessons from Opening Week
One of the challenges when a meet begins is knowing how the track will play. I will typically look at the first 2 weeks of a meet from the last 3 years to help with this.
I do this instead of looking at the trends of the whole meet because tracks with long meets will experience dramatically different conditions that can have a major impact.
Turf in Indiana will carry more moisture in April and May, but could be dry and hard by July. This will significantly change what profile of horse has the most success.
Here are some of the lessons learned from opening week at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
Speed Looks Good
After day 1 it seemed like the usual speed bias was completely gone from the Shelbyville track. However, after more closely reviewing the charts of the races, it turned out that perception did not match reality.
While on the day it seemed like horses were coming from way out of it, almost every winner was on or near the lead at the 2nd call time of the race.
On Wednesday, as the track dried out from early week rain and snow, the bias got even more pronounced. The track was most favorable on that day to horses on the lead or within a length of the leader at the 2nd call.
Synthetic Form Transfers
A previous article outlined the performance of shippers at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The above chart clearly showed that the most productive horses ran their previous race at either Horseshoe Indianapolis or Turfway Park, a synthetic track in Kentucky.
This continued to be the case as most of the winners on the first two cards represented these two tracks.
Layoffs are OK
One thing you will often see on regional circuits is horses that never leave the area. Unlike the horses in some of the elite barns that get vanned to warmer climates in the winter, many of these horses stayed in the surrounding area.
This means that many horses have been off since last October when the track closed it’s meet. Typically layoffs are seen as a negative as many horses need a race to get back into racing fitness. However, with so many coming off this type of layoff, it does not seem to be a problem based on the results of the first 2 days of racing.
Tuesday Full Card Analysis
Betting News will also provide a full analysis of all of the races for Wednesday, April 27.
Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 1
Post: 2:30 PM ET; Purse: $16,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6
- #3 BRENTSPENCE (6-1) is a fresh face and I will take my chances against proven losers.
- #6 EDENS GLORY (9-5) has the speed ratings to suggest favoritism, but I don’t trust those in the maiden ranks the way I would with more established horses.
- #2 CIRCLE INDY (5-2) is the next likeliest winner. The pace of this horse could be something the others struggle to handle.
- #5 PRINCE SHIM (4-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.
Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 2
Post: 3:01 PM ET; Purse: $12,500 Claiming, 5 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7
- #6 FANCIFIED (5-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & power rating.
- #3 APRON STRINGS (3-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & pace numbers.
- #4 JILLS PASSION (10-1) comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future.
- #1 DICHOTOMY (5-1) could get a perfect pace setup in the race which makes this one dangerous. I wish the post was a bit further out though.
Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 3
Post: 3:32 PM ET; Purse: $38,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 7
- #3 TELLMEONASUNDAY (6-1) looks like a strong prospect edging the field in several key handicapping factors including record at the distance & pace numbers.
- #7 SISTER ANNIE (2-1) has to be respected based on the connections.
- #5 LADY FROSTED (5-1) has been running against some solid competition prior to entering today’s race.
- #4 POLKA POLENTA (4-1) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.
Selections: 3-7-5-4 (#3 TELLMEONASUNDAY)
Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 4
Post: 4:03 PM ET; Purse: $13,500 Maiden Claiming, 5 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9
- #8 WHAT'S SO FUNNY (10-1) is in really good form right now.
- #3 GOODBYE GREELEY (3-1) looks to be the potential pace of the race.
- #6 VERDANDI (8-1) has the top speed figures and best breeding of this modern group. In a field like this its worth a use at a price.
- #1 LUCKYWISE (7-2) merits consideration in this spot given edges in stamina & connections.
Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 5
Post: 4:34 PM ET; Purse: $40,000 Allowance, 5 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10
- #6 AKAMAI (6-1) has run against some top notch runners and loves this distance. I think this one is in with a big shot at a price.
- #1 MAI TAI'S GEM (2-1) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed and pace figures.
- #8 HAZEL RAH (8-1) has a solid power rating which can be a reliable figure on dirt.
- #7 DAAHER STREET (10-1) comes out of some solid races and could be a player in the underneath spots.
Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 6
Post: 5:05 PM ET; Purse: $15,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10
- #6 WINDOW SHAKER (6-1) has breeding that suggests this one could be good enough here.
- #4 HANDFUL OF CARATS (12-1) is the fresh face in the group and will look to break the maiden on debut
- #8 ANNA'S TRIBUTE (2-1) looks to get a good setup in this spot, but I am always against favorites in these types of races.
- #3 PRIME N PROPER (3-1) if you believe the figures this one is the top player in the race. I’m just not sure if you can trust the numbers on this runner.
Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 7
Post: 5:36 PM ET; Purse: $33,000 Starter Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9
- #5 JOVA (10-1) goes out for a great barn and seems to really enjoy this distance.
- #8 FIGHT ON (9-5) is a pace player in this spot.
- #4 LOST IN LIMBO (15-1) is probably more likely to hit the board than win, but I like this one to get a good pace setup to be involved in the posted numbers.
- #7 VIVID VERSE (2-1) is another runner who seems to be a player at the 5 1/2 furlong distance.
Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 8
Post: 6:07 PM ET; Purse: $38,500 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 11
- #10 INDY LITES (15-1) is a total connection play. I don’t love anything in this field so I like to take a shot. That being said, this horse will need to get pushed to 12-1 or lower at post. That will be enough of an indicator to me that the horse is taking money. Above 12-1 this one may be completely off my tickets.
- #4 AJIC JAY (4-1) has decent enough bloodlines to be a factor in this spot.
- #3 SIGNATURE STREET (8-1) is the most well bred out of this group.
- #5 TAPPINTOTHEBEAT (5-1) has hit the board at 5 furlongs already so is obviously worthy of competing here.
Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 9
Post: 6:38 PM ET; Purse: $18,000 Maiden, 330 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 11
- #5 BEOWULF (12-1) has been in decent form and should be a player here at a fat price.
- #2 FE STONE CRUSHER (2-1) has the top speed index in the group.
- #9 AZERENKA (3-1) has to be respected based on the connections.
- #7 FE CANT TOUCH THIS (8-1) may have a slight edge in class on these, but it is so hard to know with maidens.
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