Fair Grounds: Woodchopper, Pago Hop, and Sugar Bowl Analysis

Chris Adams

Monday’s are typically slow at American racetracks. However, with many still on Christmas vacation, Santa Anita and Fair Grounds have rare Monday cards. The latter features 5 stakes races including the Woodchopper, Pago Hop, and Sugar Bowl.

Monday Analysis

Fair Grounds Race 1

Post: 1:05 PM CT; Purse: $18,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 10

#6 HARMON KILLER BREW (5-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. #9 AFTERNOON ANEJO (3-1) has the best breeding in the group and should have the foundation to be successful today. #10 ASSET TALENT (6-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. #1 SHADYFIED (8-1) isn’t without hope in a field that lacks any world beaters.

Selections: 6-9-10-1

Fair Grounds Race 2

Post: 1:33 PM CT; Purse: $46,000 Allowance, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

#2 PLUM GOOD (3-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form. #5 MAW MAW’S SOPHIA (4-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s advantages in class & pace numbers. #6 SPEAK TO ME (9-2) is worth a look here given the connections behind this entrant. #1 AMERICAN REBEL (5-1) has the best in the money percentage of any in the group and should be on every trifecta ticket.

Selections: 2-5-6-1

Fair Grounds Race 3

Post: 2:01 PM CT; Purse: $40,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 16

#4 DOT’S DOLLAR (5-1) should be competitive today based on the horse’s advantages in speed & form. #12 RUMBLE READY (5-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race. #3 SNOW CANDY (8-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done. #8 HOLIDAY HOUSE (6-1) is an outsider in with a shot in this spot. Early money will be the key to determining which way this one will run.

Selections: 4-12-3-8

Fair Grounds Race 4

Post: 2:28 PM CT; Purse: $46,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

#4 STEADYTILLREADY (9-2) should be competitive today based on the horse’s advantages in speed & record at the distance. #2 IN SKY WE TRUST (6-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including stamina & power rating. #9 POPULIST (8-1) is one I expect to outperform the morning line. #6 PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE (8-1) is a major player based on speed figures.

Selections: 4-2-9-6

Fair Grounds Race 5

Post: 2:56 PM CT; Purse: $40,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 16

When my metric-based handicapping yields divergent results in a maiden allowance race, I am always mindful of the board. Insiders may have access to information that doesn’t exist in the past performances. This information will likely be reflected in which horses are taking money.

#6 PARIS KENTUCKY (6-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in stamina & pace numbers. #5 KNOW BY HEART (12-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & breeding #1 RED HOT MAMA (8-1) comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future. #15 BEE RIGHT (8-1) could get the right race flow to blow up the board.

Selections: 6-5-1-15

Fair Grounds Race 6

Post: 3:24 PM CT; Purse: $75,000 Letellier Memorial S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

The first stakes race on the Fair Grounds Monday card is the Letellier Memorial. This one seems like it will be pretty formful and players would be wise to pick their favorite and try to move on from there as going deep in horizontal wagers likely won’t yield big returns.

#6 MICROBIOME (3-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & form. #3 GIRL WITH A DREAM (5-2) is worth a look here given edges in connections & race flow. #5 COM’ ON SWEET LUV (3-1) and #1 IMPLOSION (6-1) both also make sense.

Selections: 6-3-5-1 (Best Bet #6 Microbiome)

Fair Grounds Race 7

Post: 3:53 PM CT; Purse: $75,000 Woodchopper S., 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 11

#7 POINT ME BY (9-2) is a major player based on speed figures. #8 CONCERT TOUR (3-1) makes his return to the races after being a major player on the Kentucky Derby trail last year. #2 WHO TOOK THE MONEY (8-1) is a major player based on speed figures. #1 HIDDEN ENEMY (10-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s advantages in connections & power rating.

Selections: 7-8-2-1

Fair Grounds Race 8

Post: 4:22 PM CT; Purse: $75,000 Joseph E. Spanky Broussard Memorial S., 1 Mile 70 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 8

#8 AUDREY’S TIME (3-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & power rating. #2 CHEETARA (5-2) is another horse that looks good on paper. #5 VELVET CRUSH (8-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. #4 JUDY’S WAY (8-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & stamina.

Selections: 8-2-5-4

Fair Grounds Race 9

Post: 4:51 PM CT; Purse: $75,000 Pago Hop S., 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 13

#10 AMALFI PRINCESS (8-1) is a longshot that I have always liked. Based on the metrics this one looks competitive and turf racing can be unpredictable so I’ll take my shot. #6 OUT OF SORTS (8-1) is a major player based on speed figures. #1 TOUCH OF CLASS (20-1) comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future. #12 ASSERTIVE STYLE (15-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s advantages in stamina & pace numbers.

Selections: 10-6-1-12

Fair Grounds Race 10

Post: 5:22 PM CT; Purse: $75,000 Sugar Bowl S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 9

#7 BLUE KENTUCKY (8-1) is worth a look here given edges in race flow & pace numbers. #1 CHATTALOT (7-2) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. #8 HOIST THE GOLD (6-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form. #9 HIGHER STANDARD (3-1) is worth a look here given edges in race flow & power rating.

Selections: 7-1-8-9

Betting News Free Handicapping Tools

For help with all of your week’s selections don’t forget to check out the Betting News free handicapping tools. Monday’s tracks include Parx, Santa Anita, Fair Grounds, Laurel Park and more!

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