Fair Grounds Tuesday: Mardi Gras Stakes Analysis, Selections

Chris Adams

Fair Grounds will run a rare Tuesday card on March 1st. The marquee race will be the Mardi Gras stakes and will go off as race 8 on the turf.

Mardi Gras Stakes

The Fair Grounds Race 8

Post: 4:36 PM CT; Purse: $75,000 Mardi Gras S., About 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 8

Change of Control is one of the top 2 morning line choices from the Fair Grounds on Tuesday
Change of Control wins the Autumn Days at Aqueduct in a driving range.
  • #5 CHANGE OF CONTROL (2-1) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating.
  • #4 ELLE Z (9-5) looks like a strong prospect. This one will be forward and has had success at this distance in the past.
  • #2 SAIL ON ELLEN (12-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.
  • #8 GOIN' GOOD (6-1) is a fringe player here and wouldn’t be a total shock if this one finds a way to get to the winner’s circle.

Selections: 5-4-2-8

Tuesday Undercard Analysis

The Fair Grounds Race 1

Post: 1:05 PM CT; Purse: $19,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

  • #1 SUNDAY SCHEMING (7-2) has a great shot in the race given the top connections & recent foes.
  • #6 LOVE AND LEMONS (3-1) is worth a look here given the record at the distance and could get a dream setup in this spot.
  • #8 WINNING QUALITY (9-2) has been doing everything right in recent starts. This one is logical here.
  • #4 BELMAR BEAUTY (4-1) has the top speed and power ratings in the group and could be extremely dangerous in this spot.

Selections: 1-6-8-4

The Fair Grounds Race 2

Post: 1:35 PM CT; Purse: $20,000 Claiming, 7 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 9

  • #1 EVERLOVINGHAND (3-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & power rating.
  • #1A BATTLE OF WILL (3-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done. The fact that this one is part of a coupled entry should help. These two together seem like a real formidable force.
  • #5 RANCH BADGE (6-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race.
  • #7 HENNING (6-1) comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future.

Selections: 1-1A-5-7

The Fair Grounds Race 3

Post: 2:05 PM CT; Purse: $19,000 Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

  • #5 MADAME JANE (3-1) has a great shot in the race given the speed figures. It doesn’t hurt that this one will be on the engine early.
  • #3 MRS. JUDY (8-1) has to be respected based on the connections.
  • #7 STEPH'S SPIRIT (9-2) is worth a look here given edges in class & power rating.
  • #2 TENSAS VIRGINIA (9-2) will look to get a dream trip in this spot. If that happens, this one is a bit of a distance specialist.

Selections: 5-3-7-2

The Fair Grounds Race 4

Post: 2:35 PM CT; Purse: $25,000 Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 9

  • #4 DENVER CITY (8-5) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & pace numbers.
  • #1 JACK THE UMPIRE (5-1) matches up well in this spot on speed and class and could be a player if the favorite doesn’t fire.
  • #6 MAY HOUR (8-1) has to be respected based on the connections.
  • #7 IN SKY WE TRUST (6-1) has a solid power rating that gives this one a chip, a chair, and a chance.

Selections: 4-1-6-7

The Fair Grounds Race 5

Post: 3:05 PM CT; Purse: $53,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 6

  • #4 TELLMEONASUNDAY (5-2) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & power rating.
  • #2 MISS TULSA (3-1) has to be respected based on the jockey trainer combination.
  • #5 SARIAH SARIAH (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & pace numbers.
  • #1 I'M FINE (7-2) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.

Selections: 4-2-5-1 (Best Bet: #4 TELLMEONASUNDAY)

The Fair Grounds Race 6

Post: 3:35 PM CT; Purse: $46,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 13

  • #2 DIAMANT DAMHSA (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in connections & record at the distance.
  • #1 SURELY (10-1) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.
  • #3 COCO PUFF (8-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.
  • #6 MY FRIEND AMY (10-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.

Selections: 2-1-3-6

The Fair Grounds Race 7

Post: 4:05 PM CT; Purse: $36,000 Starter Allowance, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 9

  • #9 COLONELSDARKTEMPER (7-2) should be competitive today based on the horse's overall speed & power rating.
  • #1 SHORTLIST (8-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today. The price is right on this one to take a shot.
  • #8 OURNATIONONPARADE (12-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & form. My guess is this one could take some money and may end up closer to 6-1 by post.
  • #2 INTREPID HEART (3-1) has been a horse I’ve always liked. However, this one always seems to be a good, but not great runner. I think this one hits the board, but I’m not sure its the strongest win candidate.

Selections: 9-1-8-2

The Fair Grounds Race 8

Post: 4:36 PM CT; Purse: $75,000 Mardi Gras S., About 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 8

  • Mardi Gras Stakes analysis provided above.

Selections: 5-4-2-8

The Fair Grounds Race 9

Post: 5:07 PM CT; Purse: $54,000 Allowance, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 11

  • #2 MARTINIZED (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in class & power rating.
  • #7 MORE MEMORIES (9-2) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race.
  • #11 DRILLING REPORT (6-1) makes some sense on paper, but would have to be considered a fringe player at best. This one definitely could be a player in the vertical exotics.
  • #5 OUR BLUE JAY (6-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form.

Selections: 2-7-11-5

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