Fair Grounds Picks: Kentucky Derby Prep Analysis (1/17/2026)

Chris Adams

Written by: Chris Adams

Published: Sat Jan 17, 2026, 7:00 am ET

Read Time: 9 minutes

Fair Grounds Picks

horses

The racing action from Fair Grounds on Saturday features the Lecomte Stakes. The Lecomte is the first American 20 point Kentucky Derby prep race for the 2026 Run for the Roses. @HandicappingT3 has all the Fair Grounds picks for the entire card!

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Fair Grounds Full Card Analysis

Fair Grounds Picks: Kentucky Derby Prep Analysis (1/17/2026)

Fair Grounds Picks: Kentucky Derby Prep Analysis (1/17/2026)

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 12:00 PM CT; Starter Allowance $35k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 11 runners.

  • #9 WRITE OFF JERRY (4-1): Prime Win Player. Looks good based on the 89 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.
  • #4 CALIBRATE (7-2): Contender. Trainer is having a great meet. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch.
  • #11 CURAHEE (6-1): Contender. The 90 speed rating is among the best in the field. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish.
  • #6 PROTONIC POWER (9-2): Fringe Contender. Shouldn't be disadvantaged by the flow of the race. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 9 – 4 – 11 – 6

The Plays

Win: #9 at 9-2

Exacta: 9 / 4,11,6

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 12:30 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $60k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

  • #5 MISS SUPER MO (7-2): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Barn has been solid.
  • #6 RUNNING FAITH (6-1): Major Player. Looks to get a bit easier group here. Should take a liking to the race shape.
  • #9 MIGHTY HANKERIN (3-1): Contender. Barn has been sending out runners. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race.
  • #8 LOVE GETAWAY (6-1): Fringe Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. Shouldn't be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.

Selections: 5 – 6 – 9 – 8

The Plays

Win: #5 at 4-1

Exacta: 5 / 6,9

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 1:00 PM CT; Allowance Optional Claiming $60k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.

  • #3 THUNDER BUCK (9-5): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Proven competitor at this configuration.
  • #5 HERBS BOLT (7-2): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Sharp.
  • #1 JACKSON HOLE (7-2): Major Player. Should step forward from the first start. Potential to have this pace fall just right.
  • #6 ARABIA WILD (7-2): Contender. Likely to win the battle if challenged in the stretch. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 3 – 5 – 1 – 6

The Plays

Win: #3 at 2-1

Exacta Box: 3 / 5 / 1

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 1:30 PM CT; Allowance Optional Claiming $60k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

  • #7 MAX GOT EXCITED (8-1): Top pick. Favorable class relief in this spot. Proven competitor at this configuration.
  • #9 F T W SLAM (9-2): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
  • #5 CLEAR AS A BELE (3-1): Major Player. Previous success in similar race types. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish.
  • #2 DAPPER MOON (7-2): Major Player. Race conditions fit this one well. Potential to get the pace of the race flow.

Selections: 7 – 9 – 5 – 2

The Plays

Win: #7 at 9-1

Exacta Box: 7 / 9 / 5

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 2:00 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $60k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 13 runners.

  • #7 FEELING GROOVY (9-2): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Race sets up perfectly.
  • #11 KAYLA'S KOMET (8-1): Major Player. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Should still be running strong in the closing stages.
  • #1 THESEWALLSHAVEEARS (8-1): Contender. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #2 TAP TO OPEN (5-1): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 7 – 11 – 1 – 2

The Plays

Win: #7 at 5-1

Exacta: 7 / 11,1,2

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 2:30 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $60k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 13 runners.

  • #1 COWBOY ROY (8-1): Top pick. Race may setup for this runner.
  • #2 GUNS ALLOWED (5-1): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
  • #12 TROUBLE CALLING (8-1): Major Player. Hard to argue with the recent races. The 83 speed rating is among the best in the field.
  • #5 MOJACAR (7-2): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 1 – 2 – 12 – 5

The Plays

Win: #1 at 9-1

Exacta Box: 1 / 2 / 12

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 3:00 PM CT; Duncan F. Kenner Stakes $100k; 5 1/2 F Turf; Field of 13 runners.

  • #2 HEART HEADED (7-2): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration. Races competitive with the top contenders.
  • #6 SCHWARZMEIER (20-1): Major Player. Should still be running strong in the closing stages. Good race flow for this runner.
  • #3 BEAR RIVER (8-1): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #4 USUALLY WRONG (3-1): Major Player. Fast enough on paper to compete.

Selections: 2 – 6 – 3 – 4

The Plays

Win: #2 at 4-1

Exacta Box: 2 / 6 / 3

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 3:30 PM CT; Maiden Special Weight $60k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 12 runners.

Longshot Play of the Day

Longshot Play of the Day

  • #6 ROGUISHNESS (5-1): Longshot play of the day. Looks good based on the 85 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Barn has been solid. Bet today's live longshot on MyBookie.
  • #4 LA NORME DE JOUR (20-1): Major Player. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Speed figures match this group well.
  • #5 SILVER SHOT (10-1): Major Player. Hard to argue with the recent races. Not likely to be short in the stretch.
  • #11 MARKET RUNNER (5-1): Major Player. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong. May be getting a weaker field than last out.

Selections: 6 – 4 – 5 – 11

The Plays

Win: #6 at 6-1

Exacta Box: 6 / 4 / 5

Daily Double (races 8-9): #6 with #5

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 4:00 PM CT; Marie G. Krantz Memorial Stakes $100k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 11 runners.

Best Bet of the Card

  • #5 MEDORO (2-1): Best bet of the card. Barn has been solid. Proven competitor at this configuration. Bet today's best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
  • #9 STYLISH SUE (8-1): Contender. Running well of late. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #8 NANDA DEA (9-2): Contender. Prat and De team up on this one. Previous success in similar race types.
  • #6 SWEET TREASURE (3-1): Fringe Contender. Recent races are solid. Shouldn't be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.

Selections: 5 – 9 – 8 – 6

The Plays

Win: #5 at 2-1

Exacta: 5 / 9,8

Pick 3 (races 9-11): #5 with #1,4 with #4

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 4:30 PM CT; Fasig-Tipton Silverbulletday Stakes $150k; 1 M 70 Y Dirt; Field of 6 runners.

  • #1 ATROPA (2-1): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration. Should be able to work out a trip.
  • #4 TAKEN BY THE WIND (5-2): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
  • #5 LUV YOUR NEIGHBOR (4-1): Contender. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #2 DANCIN IN OLD TOWN (10-1): Fringe Contender. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Graham and Desormeaux team up on this one.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 5 – 2

The Plays

Win: #1 at 5-2

Exacta: 1 / 4,5

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 11

Post Time: 5:00 PM CT; Colonel E. R. Bradley Stakes $100k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 11 runners.

  • #4 LAGYNOS (7-2): Prime Win Player. Ortiz and Asmussen team up on this one.
  • #9 REAGAN'S WIT (10-1): Contender. Running well of late. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
  • #7 THEISMANN (10-1): Contender. Barn has been sending out runners. Potential to have this pace fall just right.
  • #5 CAMEO PERFORMANCE (6-1): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. Shouldn't be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.

Selections: 4 – 9 – 7 – 5

The Plays

Win: #4 at 4-1

Exacta: 4 / 9,7,5

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 12

Post Time: 5:30 PM CT; Louisiana Stakes Presented by Hagyard $175k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

  • #8 JUST A TOUCH (8-5): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration. Barn has been solid.
  • #7 WILLY D'S (4-1): Major Player. Seems to be up against the right competition. Speed figures match this group well.
  • #1 MOONLIGHT (9-2): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish.
  • #3 CADET CORPS (8-1): Fringe Contender. Recent races are solid. Ran at this level last out.

Selections: 8 – 7 – 1 – 3

The Plays

Win: #8 at 9-5

Exacta Box: 8 / 7 / 1

Fair Grounds Picks – Race 13

Post Time: 6:00 PM CT; Lecomte Stakes $250k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

  • #11 CHIP HONCHO (9-2): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Races competitive with the top contenders.
  • #10 STOP THE CAR (8-1): Major Player. Good race flow for this runner. Trainer is having a great meet.
  • #8 WHITE TIGER (8-1): Major Player. Should sit a good trip. Barn has been sending out runners.
  • #7 MESQUITE (8-1): Fringe Contender. Recent races are solid. Speed figs are a bit slow, but not completely hopeless against the top of the field.

Selections: 11 – 10 – 8 – 7

The Plays

Win: #11 at 5-1

Exacta Box: 11 / 10 / 8

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Chris Adams
Chris Adams

Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.

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