Churchill Downs Picks: Marathon Stakes Analysis (4/29/2026)

The racing action from Churchill Downs on Wednesday features the Isaac Murphy Marathon Stakes presented by Resolute Racing. @HandicappingT3 has all the Churchill Downs picks for the entire card!

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Churchill Downs Full Card Analysis

Churchill Downs Picks: Marathon Stakes Analysis (4/29/2026)

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 12:45 PM ET; Claiming $55k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

Best Bet of the Card

• #1 EMPIRE BUILDER (5-2): Best bet of the card. Comes in with solid form. Barn has been solid. Bet today's best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.
• #4 MY NOBLE KNIGHT (3-1): Contender. Like this one if a stretch duel ensues. Speed figures match this group well.
• #8 NATIONAL ECLIPSE (7-2): Fringe Contender. May be able find the right setup. Could wear these ones down late.
• #5 TRES SOLES (8-1): Underneath. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 8 – 5

The Plays

Win: #1 at 1-1

Exacta: 1/ 4,8

Pick 3 (races 1-3): #1 with #1,4 with #7,12,8

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 1:15 PM ET; Claiming $64k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners.

• #1 BARKSDALE (3-1): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Gaffalione and Jacobson team up on this one.
• #4 REAL MACHO (7-2): Major Player. Should take a liking to the race shape.
• #6 MISTER MMMMM (3-1): Contender. Barn has been sending out runners.
• #5 HIGHLY FLAMMABLE (9-5): Fringe Contender. Race shape gives this one an edge. Likely to win the battle if challenged in the stretch.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 6 – 5

The Plays

Win: #1 at 7-2

Exacta: 1/ 4,5

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 1:45 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 4 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 12 runners.

• #7 RUIVA (4-1): Top Pick. Proven competitor at this configuration.
• #12 BUSH (7-2): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
• #8 JUST EPIC (9-2): Major Player. Should find today's group a bit softer than the last race.
• #5 SUMMER DREAM (20-1): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 7 – 12 – 8 – 5

The Plays

Win: #7 at 1-1

Exacta: 7/ 12,8

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 2:16 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $67k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 15 runners.

• #6 ABBI FEDE (3-1): Prime Win Player. Stamina to outlast the competition. Favorable class relief in this spot.
• #7 FERAL (6-1): Contender. Trainer is having a great meet. Looks to get a bit easier group here.
• #8 NEWMAN (9-2): Contender. The 78 speed rating is among the best in the field. Potential to have this pace fall just right.
• #4 TURBO LAUNCH (4-1): Contender. Race shape gives this one an edge.

Selections: 6 – 7 – 8 – 4

The Plays

Win: #6 at 7-2

Exacta: 6/ 7,4,8

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 2:47 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $67k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners.

• #4 DIAGRAM (9-2): Prime Win Player. Proven competitor at this configuration. Barn has been solid.
• #7 RED RAINBOW (12-1): Contender. May be able to take advantage of the pace.
• #8 BOURBON AND SPICE (8-1): Contender. Barn has been sending out runners. May be able find the right setup.
• #5 SANTIANA (10-1): Contender. Potential to get the pace of the race flow. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint.

Selections: 4 – 7 – 8 – 5

The Plays

Win: #4 at 5-1

Exacta: 4/ 7,8,5

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 3:20 PM ET; Kentucky Juvenile Stakes presented by Resolute Racing $250k; 5 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners.

• #2 SKARA BRAE (7-5): Prime Win Player. Looks good based on the 85 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Race sets up perfectly.
• #4 WAGGLEY (2-1): Contender. Looks fast enough off previous efforts. Should take a liking to the race shape.
• #7 PEAK PERSPECTIVE (9-2): Contender. Barn has been sending out runners.
• #5 SUPER SAIYAJIN (8-1): Contender. Trainer's horses have been running. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 2 – 4 – 7 – 5

The Plays

Win: #2 at 8-5

Exacta: 2/ 4,7,5

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 3:52 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $134k; 5 F Turf; Field of 13 runners.

• #2 SHOOT IT TRUE (7-5): Top pick. Comes in with solid form. Barn has been solid.
• #7 SATIN BLUE (8-1): Major Player. Running well of late. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Sharp.
• #9 ROJA (4-1): Major Player. Barn has been sending out runners. Likely to maintain its stamina reserves for a strong finish.
• #5 JUSTINQUESO (8-1): Contender. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Could be griding down the competition late.

Selections: 2 – 7 – 9 – 5

The Plays

Win: #2 at 8-5

Exacta Box: 2,7,9

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 4:25 PM ET; Starter Allowance $83k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners.

• #4 MO WORK (4-1): Prime Win Player. Comes in with solid form. Looks good based on the 97 speed rating which is among the top in the group.
• #1 NORWICH (9-2): Contender. Can run with these. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.
• #3 SHARONS BEACH (5-2): Contender. Previous success in similar race types. Top connections on the circuit with Ortiz and Thomas.
• #8 SPEEDSTORM (12-1): Fringe Contender. Trainer's horses have been running.

Selections: 4 – 1 – 3 – 8

The Plays

Win: #4 at 9-2

Exacta: 4/ 3,1,8

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 4:56 PM ET; Isaac Murphy Marathon Stakes presented by Resolute Racing $200k; 1 1/2 M Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

• #8 WYNSTOCK (9-2): Top pick. Barn has been solid. Strong early pace figs.
• #5 INTERCEPTOR (6-1): Major Player. Good race flow for this runner.
• #2 PARCHMENT PARTY (2-1): Major Player. Hard to argue with the recent races. Has experience at this level.
• #1 NO BIEN NI MAL (3-1): Major Player. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance. Potential to get the pace of the race flow.

Selections: 8 – 5 – 2 – 1

The Plays

Win: #8 at 5-1

Exacta Box: 8,2,1

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 5:27 PM ET; Claiming $62k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 16 runners.

• #12 HEART SPIN (9-2): Top pick. Race sets up perfectly.
• #13 TEXAS HOLIDAY (4-1): Major Player. Trainer is having a great meet. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.
• #9 TWOLATEBABYDOLL (5-2): Contender. Previous success in similar race types. Speed figs match up nicely.
• #4 OAK ALLEY (8-1): Fringe Contender. Speed figs are a bit slow, but not completely hopeless against the top of the field. Should still have enough if the reserves if there in the final furlong.

Selections: 12 – 13 – 9 – 4

The Plays

Win: #12 at 5-1

Exacta: 12/ 13,9

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