Valspar Championship 2026 Betting Preview, Odds and Picks: Betting on Brooks

The PGA Tour wraps up the Florida swing this week with the Valspar Championship, as players make one final stop before shifting focus toward Texas and, ultimately, the Masters.

At Innisbrook's Copperhead Course, the field will face one of the tougher and more unique tests on the schedule.

Let's break down the odds, course setup and best bets for this week's Valspar Championship.

Valspar Championship 2026 Odds 

Odds courtesy of Lucky Rebel:

Xander Schauffele (+1100)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400)
Viktor Hovland (+1800)
Akshay Bhatia (+2200)
Jacob Bridgeman (+2200)
Justin Thomas (+2200)
Brooks Koepka (+2500)
Jordan Spieth (+2500)
Patrick Cantlay (+2500)
Corey Conners (+3000)
Ryo Hisatsune (+3000)
J.J. Spaun (+3500)
Sahith Theegala (+3500)
Austin Smotherman (+4000)
Ben Griffin (+4000)
Nicolai Hojgaard (+4000)
Nick Taylor (+5500)
Aaron Rai (+6000)

Copperhead Course: What to Know

Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club – Copperhead Course | Palm, Harbor, Florida
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,352
Greens: Poa Trivialis (16th smallest on Tour)
Fairways: Overseeded Ryegrass (4th narrowest)
Rough: Overseeded Ryegrass (4 inches)
Bunkers: 74
Water in Play: 6

Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club has four courses on property, but Copperhead is the one that's hosted this event since it debuted on Tour back in 2000.

It's one of the more underrated stops on the schedule and a layout players tend to enjoy playing on. You're not getting your typical Florida setup here either. Instead of wide fairways and flat terrain, Copperhead features narrow, pine tree-lined corridors, plenty of tight doglegs and some noticeable elevation changes throughout. It's similar to TPC Sawgrass where positioning matters more than just bombing it off the tee.

Because of that, players are forced to club down off the tee, which shifts the advantage away from distance and toward approach play.

Copperhead isn't a traditional par 71 either. It features five par 3s, all 195 yards or longer, and they rank as the ninth toughest set of par 3s on Tour. The four par 5s are far from easy as well, grading out as the fourth toughest group despite being the best opportunities for birdies.

It's also very much a second-shot course. Around 53% of approach shots come from beyond 175 yards, with players hitting into small, firm greens that are tough to hold. That's a big reason why greens in regulation sit around just 57%, one of the lowest marks on Tour.

You're going to have to be dialed in with your irons to create chances.

And with driver used on barely half of tee shots, there isn't much separation off the tee. Strokes gained off the tee hasn't been a key indicator of success here, which puts even more pressure on approach play and the short game.

With greens missed as often as they are, being able to gain strokes around the green becomes a big advantage when it comes to saving par and avoiding mistakes.

Add in one of the toughest closing stretches on Tour with the Snake Pit, and this becomes more about limiting mistakes and playing what's considered boring golf.

Approach play is the biggest priority this week, especially at similar difficult scoring courses. With so many shots coming from 175 yards and out into small, firm greens, I'm heavily weighting SG: APP and proximity from distance.

From there, I'm focusing on players who can handle a grind. That means looking at bogey avoidance, scrambling and SG: ARG, along with good drive percentage to stay in position. I'm also factoring in par 3 and par 5 scoring, putting splits on Poa surfaces and overall performance in difficult scoring conditions.

Valspar Championship Picks

NOTE: A quarter unit is allocated to outright plays and a full unit on the top finishing positions wagers, which are including ties.

As always, be sure to shop around for the best numbers, as PGA odds can vary significantly from book to book. 

Brooks Koepka: To Win (27/1) | Top 30 (-125)

It was a rocky start to Brooks Koepka's return to the Tour, finishing T-56 at the Farmers Insurance Open and then missing the cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, but it didn't take long for him to bounce back.

Koepka responded with a T-9 at the Cognizant Classic and followed that up with a T-13 finish last week at THE PLAYERS.

This season, among this field, Koepka ranks second in SG: APP. Over the past couple of years at courses with difficult scoring conditions, he's 21st in that metric, and when you pair that with strong greens in regulation numbers and his proximity from 175+ yards, it's exactly what you want at a course like this.

He's also 23rd in SG: ARG over his last 36 rounds, which shows that even if his irons aren't dialed, he can still make up for it around the green.

This field offers a great opportunity for a star player to shine.

J.J. Spaun: To Win (34/1) | Top 30 (-124)

I went back and forth on whether to pull the trigger on J.J. Spaun this week. It hasn't been a great start to the year, with his best finish coming last week at THE PLAYERS (T-24), but he's popping in a big way in my model, ranking fourth overall.

He's first in SG: TOT in similar scoring conditions, third in GIR% over his last 36 rounds, eighth in SG: APP, 10th in Bogey Avoidance and 15th in Good Drive Percentage with a mixed club selection off the tee.

The putter has cooled off a bit, which is really the main concern, but if that even comes back to average, the rest of his game is in a solid spot for a course like Copperhead.

With the Masters around the corner, Spaun could use a strong showing, and this feels like one of the better chances for him to put it together.

Corey Conners: To Win (35/1) | Top 30 (-120)

How could I not go back to Corey Conners for a third straight week? The Canadian treated us well at THE PLAYERS. Not only did he hold the lead for a stretch, but he ultimately cashed us a Top 20 (+168) ticket with a T-13 finish at TPC Sawgrass.

I had him rated highly in my model last week, and the same is happening again for the Valspar Championship. He finished T-8 last year at this event and in total has 12 rounds at Innisbrook, posting a True SG mark of +1.63.

Conners ranks second in Bogey Avoidance at difficult scoring courses, fourth in SG: APP and sixth in Birdie or Better Percentage. He's been very accurate off the tee with a mixed club selection, he's hitting greens in regulation at a high rate (2nd) and has done a nice job taking advantage of Par 5s.

What hasn't been as strong is the putter, along with his play around the green and on more difficult Par 3s. Still, he was able to overcome that last week. In a weaker field he could certainly do it again and actually win this thing.

Nicolai Hojgaard: To Win (38/1) | Top 30 (-106)

This man has been a popular betting selection this season, and for good reason.

The 25-year-old hasn't finished worse than T-27, which came last week at THE PLAYERS. His best finishes include a T-3 at the Phoenix Open and a T-6 at the Cognizant Classic.

Hojgaard's irons have been dialed in, the putter has been solid and he ranks first in SG: Par 3 over the past couple of seasons on average-to-difficult Par 3s.

He'll need to stay consistent off the tee and be a bit sharper around the green, but if he can do that, there's no reason he can't find himself near the top of the leaderboard again and maybe even break through for his first PGA Tour win.

Ryo Hisatsune: To Win (39/1) | Top 30 (-102)

Ryo Hisatsune finished T-4 at this event last year, and the season prior he posted a T-33. In total, he's gained +1.68 strokes per round at Innisbrook.

What's even more convincing is his current form. He's missed just one cut in eight tournaments this season, and that came in his first start of the year at the Sony Open.

His best results include a T-2 at the Farmers, a T-8 at Pebble Beach and a T-13 finish last week at THE PLAYERS.

He ranks sixth in SG: TOT on similar tracks and is also sixth in GIR% over his last 36 rounds. He's also adding a 12th-place mark in Scrambling, 18th in Bogey Avoidance and 32nd in SG: PUTT on Poa Trivialis.

His iron play has taken a step forward this season and if that continues, it could carry him even further at Innisbrook this time around

Mac Meissner: To Win (90/1) | Top 40 (-108)

It's time for our dark-horse pick of the week, which belongs to 27-year-old South Carolina native Mac Meissner.

It may be crazy to back a player coming off back-to-back missed cuts, but with him ranking sixth overall in my model this week, he's tough to ignore.

Meissner ranks first in Bogey Avoidance, second in Scrambling and seventh in SG: APP at difficult courses similar to Copperhead.

He's also performed well here, finishing T-26 in 2024 and T-28 in 2025, posting a True SG mark of +1.05.

I believe Meissner's got some value this week. I'll gladly lay -108 for a Top 40, and hope we're also sweating a 90/1 outright ticket come Sunday.

Other Top Finishes

• Nick Taylor Top 30 Finish (-114)
• Taylor Pendrith Top 30 Finish (+100)

Something about those Canadians this week, eh? My model is high on our friends from the Great White North, and I don't want to miss out on betting them to finish Top 30.

I don't think they have enough to win this tournament outright, but I believe they'll stay competitive for all four days.

Taylor hasn't missed a cut this season, and his play around the green can carry him through the week.

Meanwhile, Pendrith is showing up 10th in my model.

So let's add these two golfers to the card as well, but just with their Top 30 wagers.

Best Bets:

• Brooks Koepka: To Win (27/1) | Top 30 (-125)
• J.J. Spaun: To Win (34/1) | Top 30 (-124)
• Corey Conners: To Win (35/1) | Top 30 (-120)
• Nicolai Hojgaard: To Win (38/1) | Top 30 (-106)
• Ryo Hisatsune: To Win (39/1) | Top 30 (-102)
• Mac Meissner: To Win (90/1) | Top 40 (-108)
• Nick Taylor Top 30 Finish (-114)
• Taylor Pendrith Top 3o Finish (+100)

Other Golf Content at Betting News

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• How to Bet on Golf: Types of Golf Bets You Can Make at Online Sports Betting Sites

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