Often known as golf's "fifth major," THE PLAYERS Championship returns this week as the PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. Another star-studded field will compete in what many consider the most prestigious signature event of the season.
TPC Sawgrass is one of the most unpredictable courses on the PGA Tour, with water in play on 16 holes and trouble lurking nearly everywhere. The tournament's move from May to March in 2019 has only added to the challenge, as stronger winds and firmer conditions have often made scoring more difficult.
That unpredictability has shown up historically. There has never been a back-to-back winner at THE PLAYERS, and over the last 30-plus years only Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Tiger Woods and Davis Love III have managed to win the event more than once. Outside of Scheffler, no defending champion since 2005 has even recorded a top-10 finish the following year.
This should lead to an exciting week of golf. Below, we'll get you ready for it all with our preview, odds and picks for the 2026 Players Championship.
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THE PLAYERS Championship 2026 Odds
Odds courtesy of Lucky Rebel:
- Scottie Scheffler (+400)
- Rory McIlroy (+1400)
- Collin Morikawa (+1800)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2200)
- Si Woo Kim (+2200)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
- Russell Henley (+3000)
- Xander Schauffele (+3000)
- Cameron Young (+3500)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+3500)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+3500)
- Min Woo Lee (+3500)
- Akshay Bhatia (+4000)
- Chris Gotterup (+4000)
- Jake Knapp (+4000)
- Viktor Hovland (+4000)
TPC Sawgrass Course Breakdown: What to Know
TPC Sawgrass | Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,352
Designer: Pete Dye
Greens: Poa Trivialis (13th smallest on Tour)
Fairways: Overseeded Ryegrass
Rough: Overseeded Ryegrass
Bunkers: 92 (2nd most on Tour)
Water in Play: 16 holes (most on Tour)
TPC Sawgrass may not be overly long by modern PGA Tour standards, but Pete Dye's design demands precision from start to finish. The layout forces players to think their way around the course, often requiring them to club down off the tee and prioritize precision over power. The average driving distance here is around 285 yards, which is well below the Tour average. Because of that, filtering stats to emphasize players who perform well off the tee with a mixed bag or less than driver becomes essential. No two consecutive holes play the same way, forcing players to strategize with nearly every shot.
The course also punishes mistakes more than most venues on Tour. With water in play on 16 holes, narrow landing areas and thick overseeded rough, players who miss their spots are often left scrambling just to salvage par. That's a big reason why the leaderboard here can shift quickly over four rounds.
Because the greens at TPC Sawgrass rank among the smallest on the PGA Tour and are typically firmer this time of year, with wind often playing a factor, approach play becomes the most important separator in the field. Players who consistently gain strokes with their irons and are striking the ball well tend to separate themselves quickly. According to Betsperts, 19 of the last 21 winners ranked inside the top 35 in Strokes Gained: Approach during the year leading up to their victory, making recent SG: APP form crucial to recognize.
When those greens are inevitably missed, short-game play becomes just as critical. Contenders here are usually the players who can combine strong ball-striking with reliable scrambling, limiting bogeys while taking advantage of the scoring opportunities that do appear.
Given these elements, some of the key metrics I've emphasized in this week's handicap are Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Trivialis), Strokes Gained: Par 4, Scrambling Percentage, Good Drive Percentage, Driving Accuracy and Bogey Avoidance.
Unlike many other Tour events, course history is not quite as crucial when assessing potential success. While it's still worth noting, it shouldn't ultimately overhaul your decision making.
THE PLAYERS Championship Picks
NOTE: A quarter unit is allocated to outright plays and a full unit on the top finishing positions wagers, which are including ties due to the strength in this week's competition. As always, be sure to shop around for the best numbers, as PGA odds can vary significantly from book to book.
Si Woo Kim: To Win (24/1) | Top 10 (+210)
I know it's rare to see repeat winners at TPC Sawgrass, but it's just too difficult to ignore Si Woo Kim this week.
Kim is the youngest player to ever win THE PLAYERS, capturing the title at just 21 years old back in 2017. At the time the tournament was still held in May, so the course conditions were a bit more favorable, but it was still an incredibly impressive feat.
Even after the move to March, Kim has continued to play well here, recording a T-9 finish in 2021 and a T-6 in 2024.
But let's remember – past performance isn't necessarily indicative at this venue. What matters most is iron play, and that's where Kim has been elite.
Si Woo Kim ranks first in both SG: APP and Ball Striking this season. He's also been excellent off the tee, ranking first in Driving Accuracy with a mixed bag selection over the past 18 months, and comes in second in SG: ARG in tougher scoring conditions over his past 50 rounds.
He's also solid in Bogey Avoidance and Scrambling, though his putting on Poa Trivialis isn't particularly strong. Still, it's not overly concerning compared to how well the rest of his game sets up for TPC Sawgrass.
Kim has been dialed in all season, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him put together four strong rounds once again at THE PLAYERS.
Hideki Matsuyama: To Win (37/1) | Top 20 (+140)
Another player whose success here and current form are hard to ignore is Hideki Matsuyama. He has a +2.27 True Strokes Gained mark at TPC Sawgrass across 35 rounds, which includes a fifth-place finish in 2023 and a T-6 in 2024, though he did miss the cut last year.
Outside of his unfortunate collapse at the WM Phoenix Open and a T-41 finish last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Matsuyama has played some solid golf this season.
He ranks 14th in SG: APP and 23rd in Driving Accuracy, with a mixed bag, this season.
Over his last 50 rounds, when filtering for difficult scoring conditions similar to what we often see at TPC Sawgrass, he ranks first in SG: ARG, third in SG: APP, sixth in Scrambling Percentage and 19th in Bogey Avoidance.
His lack of success with putting on Poa Trivialis surfaces scares me a bit, along with his inconsistencies off the tee, but that's why I'm targeting him for a Top-20 finish rather than Top-10, just for a bit more cushion if he doesn't get the outright win for us.
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Matt Fitzpatrick: To Win (41/1) | Top 10 (+335)
I'm hoping this is the tournament where Matt Fitzpatrick finally makes a statement this season. His best finish so far was a ninth-place result at the WM Phoenix Open. While he hasn't missed a cut in the five tournaments he's played, he also hasn't quite lived up to his potential yet.
Because of that, we're getting a solid price on the 31-year-old.
Over his last 50 rounds in difficult scoring conditions similar to what we typically see at TPC Sawgrass, Fitzpatrick ranks eighth in both Scrambling Percentage and SG: APP, along with 15th in SG: ARG.
His recent form backs that up as well, ranking 14th in SG: APP this season. He's also been reliable in Bogey Avoidance and has become more precise off the tee during his past 36 rounds.
If he can dial in the flat stick while keeping the irons sharp, Fitzpatrick should have a strong chance to contend near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Shane Lowry: To Win (70/1) | Top 20 (+275)
Is Shane Lowry mentally prepared to contend at THE PLAYERS this weekend? Let's sure hope so, because if he can get his mindset in order, his skillset should take care of the rest.
After coughing up a three-stroke lead at the Cognizant Classic, Lowry followed that up with a missed cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. But if there's a way to erase those memories, it would be by showing up and delivering a strong performance at TPC Sawgrass.
Lowry ranks inside the top 10 in my custom model this week. He's reliable off the tee and ranks fourth in SG: APP over his last 50 rounds at courses with similar scoring conditions. He's also efficient on Par 4s and capable of getting up and down around the greens.
The concern, however, is the mental side. When things start to unravel for Lowry, they can spiral quickly – as we saw with the collapse at the Cognizant.
Hopefully he's had enough time to reset and recognizes the opportunity in front of him to move past the frustrating results from the last two weeks.
At the very least, with these prices it's worth finding out.
Corey Conners: To Win (94/1) | Top 30 (+168)
My dark-horse pick to win THE PLAYERS is Corey Conners. That's right, I'm going right back to the well not only with Si Woo Kim, but also Conners after backing both at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last weekend.
Conners has played some respectable golf this season, but you get the sense, both from watching and from the metrics, that he hasn't come close to reaching his full potential yet.
Conners ranks 10th in my model for this week. Over his past 50 rounds in scoring conditions similar to TPC Sawgrass, he ranks fourth in SG: Par 4, fifth in SG: OTT and sixth in SG: APP. He's also top-30 in Ball Striking and Scrambling.
His play on and around the greens is the main concern, but nearly everywhere else his game has been strong. If he can even slightly improve in those areas, then the sky could be the limit for the Canadian this week.
Aaron Rai: Top 30 (+144)
It wouldn't take long for me to go back to one of my mainstay betting selections on the PGA Tour, and this week feels like the right time for Aaron Rai to make his return to my card.
Now, I won't be taking a flyer on him to win outright – though his price can be found in the triple-digit range – instead, I'm targeting a top-30 finish from Rai.
Rai's strengths continue to shine off the tee, and we've also seen an uptick in his Par 4 efficiency (9th), Ball Striking (20th) and Approach play (28th) over his past 50 rounds at similar tracks.
Once he gets to and around the green, well, that's a different story. But that's also why I'm not expecting him to win outright – just to play well enough in the other facets of his game to crack the top 30 and cash us a decent plus-money price.
For more golf betting analysis and final thoughts on THE PLAYERS Championship, join me on my new show, The Fairway Forecast, on the Betting News Network, streaming live on X and Twitch this Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET.
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