The American Express Betting Preview, Predictions & Picks (2026)

The American Express Betting Preview 

The American Express marks the second stop of the PGA Tour season and is held in La Quinta, California. The tournament follows a Pro-Am format, with players rotating through three courses during the first three rounds: La Quinta Country Club, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the Pete Dye Stadium Course. After 54 holes, the field is trimmed to the top 65 players and ties, with Sunday's final round taking place at the Stadium Course.

Last year's winner, Sepp Straka, reached 25-under par, which aligns with what this event typically becomes – a birdie fest. Putting is the biggest separator by a wide margin, with Birdie or Better percentage carrying more weight here than at most stops on Tour. Additionally, I'll be targeting Ball Striking, Greens in Regulation percentage, Strokes Gained: Approach and Good Drives Gained.

The easy conditions add volatility to the event, creating opportunities for long shots to contend. Four winners priced at 200-1 or longer have emerged victorious over the past six years. With minimal rough and slower greens due to the Pro-Am format, players are given plenty of clean looks, allowing hot putters to remain competitive throughout the week.

Let's dive into my American Express Predictions and Picks.

Odds to Win The American Express

Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel:

• Scottie Scheffler (+300)
• Ben Griffin (+2200)
• Russell Henley (+2200)
• Ludvig Åberg (+2500)
• Robert MacIntyre (+2500)
• Sam Burns (+2800)
• Patrick Cantlay (+3000)
• Si Woo Kim (+3000)
• Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000)
• Harry Hall (+4000)
• Daniel Berger (+4500)
• Sepp Straka (+4500)
• Alex Noren (+5000)
• Kurt Kitayama (+5500)

The American Express Predictions and Picks 

Last Week's Recap: 

We hit a pair of Top 20 finishes last week, cashing Ben Griffin (+105) and Harry Hall (+200). With outright plays at a quarter unit each and Top 20s graded at a full unit, the card finished down 1.20 units overall. That same approach will carry into this week, with a quarter unit allocated to outright plays and a full unit on the Top 20 wagers.

Ben Griffin: To Win (22/1) | Top 20 (+120)

Ben Griffin picked up right where he left off last season, finishing T-19 at the Sony Open last week in Hawaii. He cashed a Top 20 for us there, and I'm looking for him to at least do that again in this spot.

Griffin's recent form is encouraging, and the numbers back it up. Last season, he ranked 32nd in Greens in Regulation percentage, 38th in Birdie or Better percentage and 44th in Ball Striking. Looking at a more recent sample, over his last 32 rounds among this week's field, Griffin sits third in Strokes Gained: Total, ninth in Strokes Gained: Putting and 18th in Strokes Gained: Approach.

I'm sticking with the steady hand and riding Griffin again out in Cali.

Russell Henley: To Win (25/1) | Top 20: (+125)

I understand the hesitation in backing players in the 20/1 range in a tournament that often rewards long shots, but I can't ignore Russell Henley this week.

Much like Ben Griffin, Henley picked up right where he left off at Waialae Country Club, finishing T-19 and showing he's ready to contend early in the season. He hasn't played The American Express since 2022, when he finished T-14, but I like the fact that he's returning with solid form in what should be a stronger field this time around.

Over his last 32 rounds, Henley stacks up extremely well statistically, ranking second in SG: Total, third in SG: Approach and 25th in SG: Putting. He also ranks fourth in driving accuracy, which should consistently put him in advantageous positions to attack pins and set up high-quality birdie chances.

Looking back at last season, Henley finished ninth in Good Drives Gained, 26th in Greens in Regulation and 42nd in Birdie or Better percentage. All signs point to him staying competitive across all four rounds this week.

Harry Hall: To Win (40/1) | Top 20: (+190)

I'm going back to the well with Harry Hall this week. He sat in second place heading into Sunday last week before sliding to a T-6 finish at the Sony Open.

Entering that tournament, even though it was the first of the year I was surprised by how generously sportsbooks priced him. Hall was available at 45/1 to win and +200 for a Top 20, and the adjustment for this tournament has been minimal, which I'm more than willing to take advantage of again.

Over his last 32 rounds, Hall ranks third in SG: Putting and 11th in SG: Total. If last week's form carries over, and he continues to rack up birdies on a much easier setup, he should be firmly in the mix once again.

Pierceson Coody: To Win: (80/1) | Top 20 (+275)

Does a player who finished third in Ball Striking and fourth in both Birdie or Better and Greens in Regulation percentage interest you at 80/1 this week? It certainly does for me – especially with a +275 price attached to a Top 20 finish.

That's the opportunity we're getting with Pierceson Coody this weekend. The 27-year-old Texas native finished T-13 last week in Hawaii and could be in a strong position to replicate that success in La Quinta.

Coody has been solid off the tee and has steadily improved his approach play. Like most players in this field, the biggest necessity will be getting the putter going, and if the flatstick heats up, we should be in a strong position to profit.

Matt McCarty: To Win (100/1) | Top 20: (+350)

Our final play brings us to Matt McCarty, a 28-year-old American who I believe could be flying under the radar this week. McCarty was fairly underwhelming at Waialae, finishing T-55 at 3-under par, but I'm expecting a stronger showing going forward.

McCarty ranks 28th in both SG: Putting and SG: Total over his past 32 rounds, which is a strong indication of what could be coming. He missed the cut at The American Express last year, finishing at six-under par, but his True Strokes Gained mark of +1.88 suggests the performance was better than the result. That hints at a potential breakout this time around and I don't want to miss it if it comes to fruition.

Best Bets:

• Ben Griffin: To Win (22/1) | Top 20 (+120)
• Russell Henley: To Win (25/1) | Top 20: (+125)
• Harry Hall: To Win (40/1) | Top 20: (+190)
• Pierceson Coody: To Win: (80/1) | Top 20 (+275)
• Matt McCarty: To Win (100/1) | Top 20: (+350)

Other Golf Content at Betting News

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• How to Bet on Golf: Types of Golf Bets You Can Make at Online Sports Betting Sites

Our sports betting guides also include helpful resources for golf handicapping, like our breakdown on futures bets and live betting.

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