Houston Open 2026 Preview & Betting Outlook: Should we Back Burns?

The Florida swing has concluded, and the PGA Tour now heads west to Memorial Park Golf Course for the Texas Children's Houston Open.

Six of the top 30 players in the world are set to tee it up this week, though the field took a hit after Scottie Scheffler withdrew on Tuesday to prepare for the birth of his second child. Scheffler had been a mainstay at this event, recording three runner-up finishes since 2020.

Now, without the World No. 1 in the mix, the odds have shifted and new contenders have risen to the top. Let's preview the 2026 Houston Open and break down my top plays in our betting outlook.

Houston Open 2026 Odds

Odds courtesy of Lucky Rebel:

Min Woo Lee (+1400)
Chris Gotterup (+1800)
Jake Knapp (+2200)
Brooks Koepka (+2500)
Sam Burns (+2500)
Michael Thorbjornsen (+2800)
Kurt Kitayama (+3000)
Marco Penge (+3000)
Nicolai Højgaard (+3000)
Rickie Fowler (+3500)
Ryan Gerard (+3500)
Ben Griffin (+4000)
Adam Scott (+4500)
Wyndham Clark (+4500)
Keith Mitchell (+5000)
Pierceson Coody (+5000)
Shane Lowry (+5000)
Harris English (+5500)

Memorial Park Golf Course: What to Know

Memorial Park Golf Course | Houston, Texas
Par: 70
Yardage: 7475 (Very long)
Greens: Overseed Poa Trivialis (10th largest)
Fairways: Overseed Ryegrass
Rough: Overseed Ryegrass (Short length)
Bunkers: 21 (Fewest on Tour)
Water in Play: Four (12th Fewest)

Memorial Park Golf Course has been a staple in Houston for over a century and it's developed into a straightforward test that heavily favors distance and ball-striking.

At nearly 7,500 yards, it's one of the longest layouts on Tour and plays as a true driver-heavy course. Unlike during the Florida swing week, there's no real need to club down off the tee. Bombers can thrive here, and players who can consistently gain strokes off the tee with driver are going to give themselves a major advantage.

With only three par 5s and a heavy dose of long par 4s, scoring is going to come down to approach play, especially from distance. Over the last couple of years, a significant percentage of approach shots have come from beyond 150 yards, with a large chunk from 200-plus. That immediately puts an emphasis on strong long iron players who can consistently hit it close from range.

The greens are among the larger ones on Tour, but they're far from easy. There's plenty of undulation, along with shaved runoff areas and false fronts that can quickly turn missed approaches into difficult up-and-downs. Because of that, this is one of the more short-game dependent courses you'll see, where players who can scramble and gain strokes around the green have a clear edge.

It also puts added pressure on putting. With the speed and movement on these surfaces, lag putting and three-putt avoidance become key, especially when players are hitting longer irons into greens and leaving themselves with distance.

All of that shapes how I'm approaching this week.

In my model, I'm focusing on driving distance, strokes gained off the tee and approach, along with scrambling, bogey avoidance and birdie or better percentage. I'm also factoring in SG: Putting and three-putt avoidance given the speed and movement of these greens. As always, course history plays a role, and I'm filtering for players who have performed well on long to very long courses, in driver-heavy setups, with shorter rough and overseeded Poa Trivialis greens.

Houston Open Bets

NOTE: A quarter unit is allocated to outright plays and a full unit on the top finishing positions wagers, which are including ties.

As always, be sure to shop around for the best numbers, as PGA odds can vary significantly from book to book. 

Jake Knapp: To Win (24/1) | Top 20 (+110)

This man was one of the hottest golfers out of the gate to begin the season, with a T-11 finish at the Sony Open, followed by four consecutive top-10 finishes.

Inevitably, a slight hiccup came when he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS, then withdrew prior to the Valspar Championship last week.

Nevertheless, the Houston Open sets up as a perfect bounce-back spot for Knapp. This is certainly one of the chalky/obvious choices, but I'd be kicking myself if he ended up cruising and I wasn't a part of it.

Knapp sits second overall in my model. Among this group, he's first in SG: TOT over the last six months, Birdie or Better Percentage on long/very long courses and second in 3-Putt Avoidance. Not to mention he's a stud off the tee, ranking ninth in Driving Distance.

Pair that power with his current form, and it's easy to see why Knapp is expected to thrive at Memorial Park Golf Course.

Sam Burns: To Win (25/1) | Top 20 (+108)

To be fully transparent, more often than not I'm looking for reasons to fade Sam Burns, not back him. But if there's a field where he can separate and win, it's the Houston Open.

He posted back-to-back T-7 finishes at this event in 2021 and 2022, though he withdrew the following year and hasn't played here since. Over nine rounds at this course, he's gained +1.43 True SG.

Burns isn't the strongest driver in the field, but he makes up for it with his consistency, his ability to scramble and, most importantly, his flat stick. He enters this week ranked first in SG: PUTT and fourth in 3-Putt Avoidance.

And despite lacking power off the tee, he ranks first in SG: TOT over the last 18 months on long to very long courses that favor a driver-heavy approach.

This should be a quality week for Burns.

Kurt Kitayama: To Win (30/1) | Top 20 (+116)

Prior to missing the cut at THE PLAYERS, Kurt Kitayama finished T-18 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T-2 at the Genesis Invitational.

I'm banking on him returning to that two-week stretch of form at the Houston Open.

Kitayama ranks fourth in my model, and there's plenty to like. He's third in SG: APP, fourth in Bogey Avoidance, ninth in BOB% and 11th in Driving Distance.

Everything sets up well for Kitayama outside of the putter, which has been less reliable on Poa Trivialis surfaces. If he can figure out the flat stick, he should be sitting inside the top 10 come Sunday.

Michael Thorbjornsen: To Win (32/1) | Top 30 (-120)

The 24-year-old has put together several quality rounds of golf this year. His best result was a T-3 at the Phoenix Open, and he also has a T-18 at the Farmers Insurance Open, a T-33 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T-22 at THE PLAYERS.

He ranks first in Bogey Avoidance, third in SG: OTT, ninth in SG: TOT and 15th in BOB% on long to very long courses. He's also shown strong approach play from 200+ yards and can scramble effectively.

Maybe he doesn't quite have what it takes to win this thing, but there's no doubt in my mind he can hang inside the top 30.

Keith Mitchell: To Win (50/1) | Top 30 (+100)

At 50/1, Keith Mitchell is my long shot pick of the week, which doesn't quite feel right given the relative lack of dominance in this field. Either way, he's a player with longer odds who I feel comfortable backing.

Mitchell ranks fifth in my model, sitting second in SG: TOT and second in BOB% on longer courses. He's also top-10 in Scrambling on short grass and Driving Distance.

What concerns me is the inconsistency with his putter, but if he's able to figure it out on the greens, he should be sitting pretty come Sunday.

Other Top Finishes

• Nicolai Hojgaard Top 30 (-125)
• Rasmus Hojgaard Top 30 (+110)

How about a double bet on both Hojgaard twins to finish inside the top 30?

Last week I took a flyer on Nicolai Hojgaard at the Valspar Championship and, naturally, he turned in his worst result of the season with a T-55 finish. Prior to that, his worst result was a T-27 at THE PLAYERS.

Nicolai actually ranks first in my model, but he did miss the cut at the Houston Open last year. I'm also curious to see how he responds after last week's disappointment, which is why I'm only targeting a top-30 finish here.

His brother Rasmus, meanwhile, ranks eighth in my model and brings plenty to like. What concerns me from a win standpoint, though, is his short game. He's struggled scrambling on short grass (103rd) and can be a liability with the putter (106th in 3-Putt Avoidance), while also grading below average in Bogey Avoidance.

I believe Rasmus is talented enough to keep his name near the top of the leaderboard, but there are just enough kinks in his armor to prevent him from winning.

Best Bets:

• Jake Knapp To Win (24/1) | Top 20 (+110)
• Sam Burns To Win (25/1) | Top 20 (+108)
• Kurt Kitayama To Win (30/1 ) | Top 20 (+116)
• Michael Thorbjornsen To Win (32/1) | Top 30 (-120)
• Keith Mitchell To Win (50/1) | Top 30 (+100)
• Nicolai Hojgaard Top 30 (-125)
• Rasmus Hojgaard Top 30 (+110)

Other Golf Content at Betting News

Want to learn more strategy when it comes to betting on the links? Take a look at our golf betting guide:

• How to Bet on Golf: Types of Golf Bets You Can Make at Online Sports Betting Sites

Our sports betting guides also include helpful resources for golf handicapping, like our breakdown on futures bets and live betting.

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