2026 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview & Picks: Will Aberg Take Top Spot at Torrey Pines?

The PGA Tour continues its West Coast wave with the next stop in San Diego, California, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.

Torrey Pines has hosted this event every year since 1968 and consistently presents one of the toughest challenges on the schedule, offering an early-season test of a golfer's all-around game.

Due to frequent morning fog delays and earlier sunsets, the tournament will utilize two courses this week. Golfers will play both the North and South Courses once before the cut on Friday, with only the South Course used over the weekend.

The South Course is one of the most demanding tracks on Tour year after year. Measuring 7,765 yards as a par 72, it features narrow fairways, penal rough and small, challenging greens. Meanwhile, the North Course plays much easier and is far more forgiving.

Historically, success at Torrey Pines favors bombers off the tee, strong long-iron play from 200+ yards and golfers who can scramble, avoid bogeys and capitalize on par-5 opportunities. In short, hit it long and clean up around the green.

I've got a list of players who fit that bill below, so let's dive into my Farmers Insurance Open betting preview and picks.

Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

Odds courtesy of Lucky Rebel:

• Xander Schauffele (+1400)
• Ludvig Åberg (+2200)
• Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
• Cameron Young (+2500)
• Chris Gotterup (+3000)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
• Harris English (+3500)
• J.J. Spaun (+3500)
• Jason Day (+3500)
• Maverick McNealy (+3500)
• Si Woo Kim (+3500)
• Will Zalatoris (+3500)
• Ryan Gerard (+4000)
• Taylor Pendrith (+4000)
• Sam Stevens (+4500)
• Wyndham Clark (+4500)
• Brooks Koepka (+5000)

Last Week's Recap: 

Despite not cashing Scottie Scheffler as the outright winner, we still finished up +2.88 units thanks to a few Top-20 hits:

Matt McCarty Top 20 (+350)
Pierceson Coody Top 20 (+275)
Russell Henley Top 20 (+125)

Coody finished tied for 20th, which resulted in a reduced payout due to dead-heat rules, but we still came out ahead overall. That pushes our record to 5-15 (+1.68 units).

As always, be sure to shop around for the best numbers, as PGA odds can vary significantly from book to book. As always, a quarter unit is allocated to outright plays and a full unit on the Top 20 wagers, which are not including ties.

Farmers Insurance Open Picks

Ludvig Aberg: To Win (22/1) | Top 20 (+120)

Our chalkiest pick of the week belongs to Ludvig Aberg. I love rooting for this guy and keep waiting for him to finally cash an outright on my betting card. The 26-year-old Swede has all the tools to be a superstar, but he hasn't quite found a consistently dominant stride yet.

That could change this week at Torrey Pines, a course where his skill set lines up perfectly. Last season, Aberg ranked second in approach shots from over 200 yards, 23rd in total driving and 43rd in par-5 scoring.

Two years ago, he finished T-9 in his Torrey Pines debut, followed by a T-42 result last season. The only action we've seen from him in 2026 came at The American Express, where he sat nine under par through two rounds before withdrawing ahead of the third round due to an undisclosed illness. A bounce back is in order for Aberg at Torrey Pines. 

Hideki Matsuyama: To Win (30/1) | Top 20 (+160)

How about a player with 40 rounds of experience at Torrey Pines? That's exactly what veteran Hideki Matsuyama brings to the Farmers Insurance Open this week. Over that span, he's posted a +1.67 True Strokes Gained mark. His best finish came with a T-3 in 2019, and over the past three years he's finished T-9, T-13 and T-32. He's in a solid position to finally break through for a win at Torrey Pines.

His experience will go a long way, but so will his skill set. Last season, he ranked fifth in approach shots from over 200 yards, 10th in scrambling, 68th in bogey avoidance and 69th in par-5 scoring average.

Looking at his last 40 rounds against this field, Matsuyama ranks second in SG: ARG, 14th in SG: APP and fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green. His driving distance isn't ideal, but his long-iron play should help offset that weakness.

Maverick McNealy: To Win: (36/1) | Top 20 (+180)

Another player with plenty of experience at this track is 30-year-old Maverick McNealy, who owns a +1.38 True SG mark at Torrey Pines. He has just one missed cut in seven appearances, though he's also logged only one top-20 finish. 

Still, McNealy's game showed noticeable improvement toward the end of last season. He finished T-28 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, followed by a third-place finish at the BMW Championship, then T-23 at the Tour Championship and T-13 at the Procore Championship before missing the cut at the Bank of Utah Championship in late October.

To open this season, McNealy teed it up at the Sony Open in Hawaii and finished T-24. Over his past 40 rounds, he ranks 12th in SG: PUTT and 29th in driving distance.

Taylor Pendrith: To Win (40/1) | Top 20 (+220)

Last season, Pendrith ranked 17th on Tour in par-5 scoring and 38th in total driving. This season, he opened with a T-6 finish at the Sony Open before missing the cut last week at The American Express.

Pendrith owns a +0.72 True SG mark at Torrey Pines, highlighted by a T-7 finish last season and a T-9 the year prior, along with a T-60 in 2023 and a T-16 in 2022.

Over his last 40 rounds, he's been steady across the board, ranking 15th in driving distance, 20th in SG: PUTT and 26th in SG: ARG. Given his price and recent success at Torrey Pines, Pendrith is well worth consideration on betting cards this week.

Jake Knapp: To Win (50/1) | Top 20 (+250)

Flying under the radar a bit this week is Jake Knapp. The California native finished T-3 at the Farmers Insurance Open in 2024 before slipping to a T-32 result last year, but he still owns an impressive +1.93 True SG mark at Torrey Pines. He's also coming off a T-11 finish at the Sony Open earlier this month.

Over his last 40 rounds, Knapp ranks 12th in driving distance and 13th in SG: PUTT. Last season, he also finished fourth in par-5 scoring, 35th in bogey avoidance, 39th in scrambling and 44th in approach shots from 200+ yards. He's checking a lot of boxes for me this week, and I'm looking to capitalize on that.

Nicolai Hojgaard: To Win (55/1) | Top 20 (+245)

The 24-year-old out of Denmark has appeared at the Farmers Insurance Open just once before, but he certainly made the most of his debut, finishing second at 12 under par. He didn't tee it up at this event last year, but returns this week looking to improve on his lone previous appearance.

It's no surprise why Hojgaard found success at Torrey Pines – he's a bomber off the tee and ranked 18th in approach shots from over 200 yards last season. He also took advantage of par-5 opportunities, finishing fifth on Tour in par-5 scoring.

He's a player with limited experience but one worth investing in, especially at the price being dealt this week.

Aaron Rai: To Win (130/1) | Top 20 ( +375)

Our triple-digit long shot for this tournament is Aaron Rai. He's treated me well in the past, and I'm hoping he can do so again this week.

Rai missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open last year, but he's shown success at Torrey Pines before. In his debut in 2022, he finished T-6, followed by a 52nd-place result the next year and a T-33 finish in 2024. He owns a +0.30 True SG mark at this venue.

He doesn't have the strongest, but rather one of the steadiest, games off the tee. Over his past 40 rounds, Rai ranks third in driving accuracy, but just 141st in distance. He can help offset that lack of length with his approach play, where he ranks second in SG over his past 40 rounds. He should also be able to take advantage of the par 5s, as he did last season, ranking 28th on Tour in par-5 scoring.

After missing the cut here last year and coming off a T-50 finish at the Sony Open, Rai should be eager to put together a quality performance this week. 

Best Bets:

• Ludvig Aberg: To Win (22/1) | Top 20 (+120)
• Hideki Matsuyama: To Win (30/1) | Top 20 (+160)
• Maverick McNealy: To Win (36/1) | Top 20 (+180)
• Taylor Pendrith: To Win (40/1) | Top 20 (+220)
• Jake Knapp: To Win (50/1) | Top 20 (+250)
• Nicolai Hojgaard To Win (55/1) | Top 20 (+245)
• Aaron Rai: To Win (130/1) | Top 20: (+375)

Other Golf Content at Betting News

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• How to Bet on Golf: Types of Golf Bets You Can Make at Online Sports Betting Sites

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