It's time for the Florida Swing to get rolling down in the Palm Beaches at PGA National, a course that used to chew players up and spit them out, but isn't quite that anymore.
Scoring has shifted drastically over the past two years, which makes this tournament even more intriguing to handicap. It's a setup that can reward the favorites but also opens the door for some extremely deep longshots. Even without most of the world's top players in the field, there's still plenty of betting value to uncover.
Below, I'll break down the course outlook, run through the odds for the top names on the board and deliver my best bets for the Cognizant Classic.
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Cognizant Classic 2026 Odds
Odds courtesy of Lucky Rebel:
- Ryan Gerard (+1600)
- Shane Lowry (+1600)
- Nicolai Højgaard (+2200)
- Michael Thorbjornsen (+2500)
- Rasmus Højgaard (+2500)
- Brooks Koepka (+3000)
- Daniel Berger (+3000)
- Aaron Rai (+3500)
- Keith Mitchell (+3500)
- Davis Thompson (+4000)
- Haotong Li (+4000)
- Johnny Keefer (+4000)
- Max McGreevy (+4000)
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (+4000)
- Will Zalatoris (+4000)
- Alex Smalley (+4500)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5000)
- Mac Meissner (+5000)
- Max Homa (+5000)
- Nico Echavarria (+5000)
- Rico Hoey (+5000)
Cognizant Classic Preview & Course Outlook
Prior to the renovations at PGA National in 2024, the average winning score hovered around -10. Since the alterations two years ago, that number has jumped to -18.
The 10th hole was converted from a par 4 into a par 5, shifting the course from a Par 70 to a Par 71 at 7,223 yards. The club also began overseeding the fairways and rough with rye grass, replacing the previously dormant Bermuda surfaces. That change has reduced some of the unpredictability, especially around the greens. While the putting surfaces remain Bermuda, the rye has created softer and more receptive overall conditions, which has clearly helped scoring.
There is still no shortage of danger. Water is in play on 15 holes, the most on TOUR, and nearly every year at least one round is heavily impacted by coastal winds that can exceed 20 miles per hour.
With all the hazards and doglegs, players are often forced to club down rather than bomb driver. The average driving distance here is just 281 yards, one of the shortest marks on TOUR. That puts a premium on second shots, particularly from 150 to 200 yards.
Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee are at the top of my model this week. I also prioritized SG: Ball Striking, SG: Putting on Bermuda, SG: Around the Green, and Par 4 and Par 5 Birdie or Better percentage. These metrics, along with several course conditions, are what I fixated on throughout my model and handicap, which ultimately led me to betting the players listed below.
Last Week's Recap:
Once again, we were in contention with a couple of players heading into Sunday, but ultimately fell short.
At the Genesis Invitational, we cashed:
- Xander Schauffele Top 10 (+195)
- Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 (+225)
- Robert Macintyre Top 20 (+130)
We finished 3-9 overall, down -0.15 units, since the dead heat rules applied to Macintyre's Top 20 finish.
For this week, as always, be sure to shop around for the best numbers, as PGA odds can vary significantly from book to book. As always, a quarter unit is allocated to outright plays and a full unit on the top finishing positions wagers, which are not including ties.
Cognizant Invitational 2026 Picks
Ryan Gerard To Win (+1850) | Top 20 (+110)
This course can bode well for both favorites and longshots, and Ryan Gerard is going to be my chalky pick this week. In the past, we've seen a correlation between performances at the Sony Open and winners at the Cognizant Classic. Of course, the course has changed over that span, but seven of the last eight winners at PGA National had a quality showing at the Sony beforehand.
Gerard finished second at the Sony Open. He followed that up with a T-2 at The American Express and a T-11 at the Farmers Insurance Open. His worst performance was a T-45 at Pebble Beach a couple of weeks ago, but he bounced back last weekend with a T-28 at The Genesis Invitational.
Among this week's contenders, putting emphasis on the key metrics and utilizing specific course conditions to fit this week's mold, I have Gerard ranking third in Bogey Avoidance, fourth in SG: APP, fifth in SG: Total, seventh in Ball Striking and 14th in Par 4 Birdie or Better percentage.
Last year at the Cognizant Classic, he finished T-25, and I'm expecting him to exceed that result this week.
Daniel Berger To Win (33/1) | Top 20 (+180)
Well, here I am again going back to the well with Daniel Berger. I can't quit this guy, especially this week. Berger finished T-6 at the Sony Open earlier this year, plus he's a native. Born in Florida and a Florida State alum, he should feel extremely comfortable in this setting.
He has 30 rounds of experience at PGA National, owns a True SG mark of +1.37 here and finished T-25 last year. In my model, he ranks third in SG: TOT, fifth in SG: Ball Striking, sixth in SG: OTT, 16th in SG: APP and 20th in SG: PUTT (Bermuda). He's also shown he can take advantage of birdie opportunities on Par 4s, which can carry him a long way at this track.
Let's hope the hometown kid shines in familiar territory.
Rico Hoey To Win (50/1) | Top 20 (+225)
The 30-year-old Philippines native checks in fifth in my model this week. He ranks first in SG: OTT, SG: APP and SG: Ball Striking. He also sits fourth in approach shots from 150 to 200 yards. The glaring weakness is the flat stick, but if he can get into a rhythm on the greens, we should expect him to contend.
He finished T-56 in 2024 following the renovation, then improved to a T-25 last year. I'm expecting big things from Hoey in the Palm Beaches.
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Kevin Yu To Win (80/1) | Top 30 (+158)
Normally, targeting a player who's missed three of his last four cuts isn't someone I'd be looking to bet, but this could be the spot where Kevin Yu rises to the top.
Yu ranks first in both Bogey and Double Bogey Avoidance, which is crucial at a course like PGA National, given the plethora of hazards. He also sits 12th in Par 5 Birdie or Better percentage and somehow checks in third overall in my model once I factored in the course conditions.
In 2024, he finished T-9 at the Cognizant Classic with a True SG mark of +1.89.
Perhaps Yu is flying under the radar this week, and at 80/1 for an outright with plus money on a Top 30 finish, it's worth seeing if his skill set truly fits this course as well as the numbers suggest.
Doug Ghim To Win (90/1) | Top 30 (+162)
Anytime I have a valid excuse to wager on my neighbor, I look to do so. Did I actually grow up next to Doug Ghim? No. But did we grow up in the same hometown? You bet. We both hail from Arlington Heights, and I'm still waiting for the day I can cash an outright ticket on my hometown compadre.
He's struggled a bit to start the season, but PGA National sets up as a strong bounce-back spot. Ghim ranks fifth in SG: APP, ninth in SG: Ball Striking and 32nd in SG: OTT in my model this week.
Most notably, he's improved since the renovation. He finished T-16 here in 2024 and followed that with a T-11 in 2025.
Ghim tends to get hot in spurts. Let's hope this is one of those weeks where he catches it early and keeps it rolling for all four rounds.
Billy Horschel To Win (94/1) | Top 30 (+200)
I was shocked to see the value being offered on Billy Horschel this week. He's played well since the renovations at PGA National, finishing T-9 in '24 and T-25 in '25. Overall, he has 44 rounds of experience at this track and has clearly adapted well to the changes.
Horschel checks in sixth overall in my rankings. He ranks first in SG: Total, eighth in SG: Putting on Bermuda, 12th in SG: Ball Striking and 30th in Bogey Avoidance.
He hasn't done anything exceptional so far this season, but I could see the Cognizant Classic being the spot where he finally puts it all together.
K.H. Lee To Win (500/1) | Top 40 (+450)
This is the player I'm most excited about this week. I mean, come on – 500-to-1 for an outright and +450 for a Top 40? What's not to love?
This will be Lee's first PGA Tour start of the season, but he's had success at PGA National before. He finished T-4 here in 2024, though he did miss the cut in 2025.
Still, at this price, that prior finish alone is enough to grab your attention.
Lee checks in 16th in SG: Total, 18th in SG: Ball Striking, 19th in SG: OTT, 24th in SG: ARG and 32nd in SG: APP in my model.
This is absolutely a player worth taking a flier on.
Best Bets:
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