NOTE: A quarter unit is allocated to outright plays and a full unit on the top finishing positions wagers, which are including ties due to the strength in this week's competition. As always, be sure to shop around for the best numbers, as PGA odds can vary significantly from book to book.
Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Preview & Betting Outlook: Can Morikawa Make his Move at Bay Hill?
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Wed Mar 04, 2026, 11:41 am ET
Read Time: 8 minutes
golf
As the Florida Swing rolls on, the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational – the third signature event in just four weeks.
Bay Hill annually delivers one of the most demanding non-major tests on the schedule, and there's plenty that goes into identifying which golfers are best equipped to separate themselves. Below, I'll get you ready for this week's festivities on the links with my 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational preview and betting outlook.
Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Odds
Odds courtesy of Lucky Rebel:
- Scottie Scheffler (+325)
- Rory McIlroy (+1000)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2000)
- Collin Morikawa (+2200)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200)
- Xander Schauffele (+2500)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
- Harris English (+3500)
- Jake Knapp (+3500)
- Ludvig Aberg (+3500)
- Russell Henley (+3500)
- Si Woo Kim (+3500)
This is a limited-field signature event with 72 players teeing it up. The 36-hole cut includes the top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 strokes of the lead. With 28 of the top 30 players in the world in the field, there's little room for separation.
Bay Hill Course Breakdown
Ranking as the sixth toughest annual stop on Tour, Bay Hill leaves minimal room for error. The 7,466-yard Par 72 demands both power and precision, and it can play even longer than the scorecard suggests.
That comes from how much is in play on every hole. With 84 bunkers scattered throughout the course and water in play on nine holes, hazards influence more than just tee shots – they shape decisions into greens and around them as well. Every par 3 measures over 200 yards, and a significant portion of approach shots come from that same range. Add in firm, fast Bermuda greens, thick rye rough and frequent double-digit winds, and the emphasis shifts heavily toward controlling long-iron approaches and scrambling when greens are missed.
Here are some of the key stats I'm emphasizing this week, with adjustments made for difficult course conditions and scoring environments specific to Bay Hill:
SG: Approach
Total Driving
SG: Off the Tee
Proximity 200+ Yards
SG: Putting (Bermuda)
SG: Around the Green / Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
SG: Par 3
SG: Par 5
Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets
Collin Morikawa To Win (27/1) | Top 10 (+225)
Are we back to full-form Collin Morikawa? It certainly feels that way after he snapped a three-year winning drought by coming out on top at Pebble Beach a few weeks ago. Morikawa followed that victory with a T-7 finish at The Genesis and has had a couple of weeks to rest and reset for another signature event down in Florida.
Morikawa will be especially eager to get back into the winner's circle not just for the obvious reasons, but because he's seeking a bit of revenge. He was so close he could almost taste victory last year at Bay Hill, finishing runner-up behind Russell Henley.
Morikawa's skill set off the tee and with his approach shots should separate him from much of the field this week. The only potential concern is whether he can stay consistent with the putter on Bermuda greens and improve on the long par 3s. If he manages those areas, there's no reason he can't find himself adding more hardware come Sunday.
Si Woo Kim To Win (35/1) | Top 10 (+250)
Lucky Rebel appears to have the best number on Si Woo Kim this week, and I'm willing to take the bait. Kim has been fairly steady so far this season with three top-10 finishes already. He also brings 31 rounds of experience at Bay Hill, though he's posted a True Strokes Gained mark of just -0.12.
That said, I'm a bit more bullish on Kim than his course history might suggest. From 2022 through 2025, he's finished T-26, T-39, T-30 and most recently T-19. There has been gradual improvement over the past couple years and I think he could take an even bigger step forward this week.
In my model, with all of the unique course conditions applied, Kim ranks first in SG: ARG, second in Total Driving and third in approach shots from 200+ yards. He's rock solid in just about every key area needed to succeed this week, with the exception of the flat stick. But if he can get that putter rolling, there's no question Kim has the tools to contend.
Patrick Cantlay To Win (55/1) | Top 20 (+106)
I go back and forth just about every tournament deciding whether or not I want to add Patrick Cantlay to my betting card. He has the skills to be one of the best in the world, but we just haven't seen that level of consistency from him in some time. Now, that's not to say he can't or won't put a great round together here and there, but it feels like we haven't seen him consistently play to the full range of his potential.
Let's hope that changes this week.
Cantlay has shown to be reliable off the tee, ranking eighth in SG: OTT, and strong with his approach shots as well, sitting fourth in SG: APP. He's also steady with the putter, ranking top-10 in avoiding three-putts and 24th in bogey avoidance.
He shouldn't play his way out of contention. It's just a matter of whether he can take that extra step forward and keep himself inside the top 10 throughout most of the weekend. Given his abilities, plus quality experience at Bay Hill, including a +1.48 True SG mark and a T-4 finish in 2023, I think he's worth taking a stab on this week.
Keegan Bradley To Win (75/1) | Top 20 (+185)
Speaking of experience, how about 54 rounds of it from U.S. Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley?
I'm a bit shocked at the lack of respect Bradley is receiving this week. I fully understand he hasn't put together an impressive round of golf so far this season, but the man lights it up year after year at Bay Hill.
In his last five appearances he's finished T-10, T-11, T-10, T-36 and T-5 most recently last year. His best result was a runner-up finish in 2014 when he lost to Matt Every. Overall, he owns a +1.51 True Strokes Gained mark at this track.
My model has Bradley ranked sixth overall in the field this week. He sits sixth in Total Driving, eighth in SG: ARG, 12th in approach shots from 200+ yards and 15th in Bogey Avoidance. His putter has been reliable on Bermuda, and he's also excelled with approach shots out of the rough and scrambling from the rough.
Plain and simple, Bradley knows how to play Bay Hill. If it ain't broke, don't fix it — that's how I view betting Keegan Bradley at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Corey Conners To Win (100/1) | Top 20 (+190)
Our dark horse contender is the Canadian Corey Conners – another frequent flier on my betting card. Conners is showing up very favorably in my model for this tournament. And his results at Bay Hill speak for themselves. The first year he played here he missed the cut, but since then he's finished third, T-11, T-21, T-18 and third again in 2025. His True SG mark sits at +1.94 through 24 rounds.
How can we ignore that, especially at the price of 100/1?
His recent form has been a bit mediocre, but returning to a course where his game clearly thrives could serve as a launch pad for both his play and his confidence. He ranks inside the top 25 in a majority of the key metrics I'm honing in on for this week.
Best Bets:
- Collin Morikawa: 27/1 Outright | Top 10 (+225)
- Si Woo Kim: 35/1 Outright | Top 10 (+250)
- Patrick Cantlay: 55/1 Outright | Top 20 (+106)
- Keegan Bradley: 75/1 Outright | Top 20 (+185)
- Corey Conners: 100/1 Outright | Top 20 (+190)
Other Golf Content at Betting News
Want to learn more strategy when it comes to betting on the links? Take a look at our golf betting guide:
Our sports betting guides also include helpful resources for golf handicapping, like our breakdown on futures bets and live betting.
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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