<p>The rise of women’s college basketball in recent years has been fueled by the emergence of numerous new powers. That includes both sides of tonight’s TCU vs. South Carolina matchup, the final of the Sacramento 4 Regional.</p>
<p>The Gamecocks (34-3), the top seed in the regional, are in the Elite Eight for the ninth time in a dozen seasons. A win over the third-seeded Horned Frogs would claim their eighth regional title in that stretch and send the quest for a fourth national title to Phoenix.</p>
<p>TCU (32-5), the No. 3 seed in the Sacramento 4 regional, is a new entrant into the elite. After reaching the Elite Eight as a 2-seed last year, Mark Campbell’s Horned Frogs are once again within a win of the program’s first Final Four appearance.</p>
<p>The winner of TCU vs. South Carolina will book a regional semifinal showdown against top overall seed UConn, who eliminated Notre Dame yesterday to advance to the women’s Final Four for the 25<sup>th</sup> time.</p>
<p>Who will move on to meet the Huskies Friday in Phoenix? At <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/luckyrebel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lucky Rebel</a> and other <a href="/best-online-sportsbooks/">top online sportsbooks</a>, South Carolina is favored by more than two touchdowns.</p>
<h2>TCU vs. South Carolina TLDR</h2>
<p>Take a look at some total action for the last of the women&#8217;s Elite Eight matchups. I don&#8217;t see the Horned Frogs threatening an upset, but the Gamecocks won&#8217;t dominate them like they did their first three tournament opponents.</p>
<h2>TCU vs. South Carolina Matchup Information</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>Matchup:</strong> #3 TCU vs. #1 South Carolina (2026 NCAA Division I Women&#8217;s Basketball Tournament Sacramento 4 Regional Final)</li>
<li><strong>Location (Venue):</strong> Sacramento, California (Golden 1 Center)</li>
<li><strong>Date:</strong> Monday, March 30, 2026</li>
<li><strong>Time:</strong> 9:00 p.m. ET</li>
<li><strong>TV:</strong> ESPN</li>
</ul>
<h2>TCU vs. South Carolina Odds and Probabilities</h2>
<p><em><strong>Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Monday, March 30, 2026, at 6:20 p.m. ET.</strong></em></p>
<div class="su-table su-table-responsive su-table-alternate">
<table class="w-fit min-w-(--thread-content-width)" data-start="114" data-end="311">
<thead data-start="114" data-end="151">
<tr data-start="114" data-end="151">
<th class="" style="text-align: center" data-start="114" data-end="121" data-col-size="sm">Team</th>
<th class="" style="text-align: center" data-start="121" data-end="130" data-col-size="sm">Spread</th>
<th class="" style="text-align: center" data-start="130" data-end="142" data-col-size="sm">Moneyline</th>
<th class="" style="text-align: center" data-start="142" data-end="151" data-col-size="sm">Total</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody data-start="191" data-end="311">
<tr data-start="191" data-end="244">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="191" data-end="201" data-col-size="sm">TCU</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="201" data-end="216" data-col-size="sm">+15.5 (-120)</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="216" data-end="223" data-col-size="sm">+675</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="223" data-end="244">Over 133.5 (-116)</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="245" data-end="311">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="245" data-end="266" data-col-size="sm">South Carolina</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="266" data-end="281">-15.5 (-110)</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="281" data-end="289">-1600</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="289" data-end="311">Under 133.5 (-114)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div class="su-table su-table-responsive su-table-alternate">
<table class="w-fit min-w-(--thread-content-width)" data-start="380" data-end="740">
<thead data-start="380" data-end="485">
<tr data-start="380" data-end="485">
<th class="" data-start="380" data-end="387" data-col-size="sm">Team</th>
<th class="" data-start="387" data-end="402" data-col-size="sm">Implied Cover Probability (%)</th>
<th class="" data-start="402" data-end="418" data-col-size="sm">True Cover %</th>
<th class="" data-start="418" data-end="436" data-col-size="sm">Implied Win %</th>
<th class="" data-start="436" data-end="455" data-col-size="sm">True Win %</th>
<th class="" data-start="455" data-end="469" data-col-size="sm">Implied Over %</th>
<th class="" data-start="469" data-end="485" data-col-size="sm">True Over %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody data-start="598" data-end="740">
<tr data-start="598" data-end="663">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="598" data-end="608" data-col-size="sm">TCU</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="608" data-end="617">54.55%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="617" data-end="626">51.16%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="626" data-end="635">12.90%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="635" data-end="644">12.17%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="644" data-end="653">53.70%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="653" data-end="663">50.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="664" data-end="740">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="664" data-end="685" data-col-size="sm">South Carolina</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="685" data-end="694">52.38%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="694" data-end="703">48.84%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="703" data-end="712">94.12%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="712" data-end="721">87.83%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="721" data-end="730">53.27%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="730" data-end="740">49.56%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<h2>Tale of the Tape: TCU vs. South Carolina</h2>
<div class="su-table su-table-responsive su-table-alternate">
<table class="w-fit min-w-(--thread-content-width)" data-start="152" data-end="847">
<thead data-start="152" data-end="209">
<tr data-start="152" data-end="209">
<th class="" style="text-align: center" data-start="152" data-end="183" data-col-size="sm">Category</th>
<th class="" style="text-align: center" data-start="183" data-end="197" data-col-size="sm">TCU (32-5)</th>
<th class="" style="text-align: center" data-start="197" data-end="209" data-col-size="sm">South Carolina (34-3)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody data-start="268" data-end="847">
<tr data-start="268" data-end="325">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="268" data-end="300" data-col-size="sm">Points Per Game</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="300" data-end="313">77.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="313" data-end="325">87.4</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="326" data-end="383">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="326" data-end="358" data-col-size="sm">Points Allowed Per Game</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="358" data-end="371" data-col-size="sm">56.3</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="371" data-end="383">57.6</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="384" data-end="441">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="384" data-end="416" data-col-size="sm">Field Goal %</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="416" data-end="429" data-col-size="sm">47.1%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="429" data-end="441" data-col-size="sm">50.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="442" data-end="499">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="442" data-end="474" data-col-size="sm">Field Goal Defense</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="474" data-end="487">33.6%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="487" data-end="499">34.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="500" data-end="557">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="500" data-end="532" data-col-size="sm">3-Point %</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="532" data-end="545" data-col-size="sm">35.7%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="545" data-end="557" data-col-size="sm">37.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="558" data-end="615">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="558" data-end="590" data-col-size="sm">3-Point Defense</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="590" data-end="603">27.3%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="603" data-end="615">28.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="616" data-end="673">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="616" data-end="648" data-col-size="sm">Free Throw %</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="648" data-end="661">76.9%</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="661" data-end="673">72.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="674" data-end="731">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="674" data-end="706" data-col-size="sm">Adj. Offensive Efficiency (<a href="https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/#">Bart Torvik</a>)</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="706" data-end="719" data-col-size="sm">21st</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="719" data-end="731" data-col-size="sm">3rd</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="732" data-end="789">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="732" data-end="764" data-col-size="sm">Adj. Defensive Efficiency (Bart Torvik)</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="764" data-end="777">10th</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="777" data-end="789">3rd</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="790" data-end="847">
<td style="text-align: center" data-start="790" data-end="822" data-col-size="sm">Tempo</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="822" data-end="835">236th</td>
<td style="text-align: center" data-col-size="sm" data-start="835" data-end="847">100th</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<h2>TCU vs. South Carolina Prediction and Analysis</h2>
<p>The Horned Frogs sport a 4-2 record this season against top-25 teams, with wins over Baylor (twice), NC State, and West Virginia and losses at Texas Tech and to West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament championship game.</p>
<p>While they have fared well against the better teams on their schedule, they have not faced a team like the one on the other side of tonight’s matchup.</p>
<p>One of the four games TCU lost in last season’s breakout campaign was a non-conference contest vs. South Carolina at Dickies Arena. The Gamecocks routed the Horned Frogs 85-52 in that matchup, led by 20 points from MiLaysia Fulwiley.</p>
<p>Fulwiley just wrapped up her junior season at LSU, but the Gamecocks haven’t missed her much, even without the injured Chloe Kitts.</p>
<p>Highly-rated transfers Madina Okot (Mississippi State) and Ta’Niya Latson (Florida State) have delivered, and returnees Joyce Edwards, Tessa Johnson, and Raven Johnson have all stepped up with career seasons.</p>
<p>All five of South Carolina’s main starters average 10+ PPG, while nine players average at least 2.7 rebounds per game and five average at least 2.6 assists per game. That shows how much quality depth the Gamecocks have even without Kitts and how many minutes there are to go around when you usually win by 15+ points.</p>
<p>Do I think TCU can keep it relatively close and cover? Absolutely. I don’t see another 33-point blowout win for the Gamecocks or a repeat of the 26-point win South Carolina had Saturday over 4-seed Oklahoma in the Sweet Sixteen.</p>
<p>TCU is strong defensively, has two players who can fill it up, and is one of the best and most prolific three-point shooting teams in the country. However, it feels like too much to ask the Horned Frogs to conjure up an upset of the Gamecocks.</p>
<h2>TCU vs. South Carolina Picks</h2>
<h3><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/luckyrebel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Over 133.5 (-116 at Lucky Rebel)</a></h3>
<h3><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/luckyrebel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TCU Team Total Over 59.5 (-110 at Lucky Rebel)</a></h3>
<p><a href="https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/schedule.php">Bart Torvik&#8217;s projections for today&#8217;s women&#8217;s March Madness games</a> have this one down as a 74-61 South Carolina win, and that lines up with both of these two picks.</p>
<p>South Carolina is solid defensively, but the Gamecocks have also allowed 60+ points to 10 of 15 ranked opponents this season, and when they have allowed 60 points against anyone this season, the total has gone over 133.5 12 of 14 times.</p>
<p>TCU, meanwhile, has been held to fewer than 60 points just three times this season. And all three times have occurred against the same opponent, West Virginia: 51 in a one-point win in Morgantown, 59 in a nine-point home win, and 53 in a nine-point loss to the Mountaineers in the Big 12 tournament title game.</p>
<p>So, you should like TCU’s chances to at least hit the 60-point mark vs. South Carolina, even in defeat.</p>
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