2022 MLB Home Run Leaders: Odds, Stats, Projections & Picks

Eddie Griffin

If you look at last season’s MLB home run leaders, there is a pretty common theme at the top: American League dominance.

In 2021, the league’s top four home run hitters–Salvador Perez (Kansas City Royals), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays), Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels), and Marcus Semien (Toronto Blue Jays) were all from the AL. NL leader Fernando Tatis Jr. came in fifth with 42 and was the only NL player with 40+ homers last season.

2021 MLB Home Run Leaders

  • t-1. Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals: 48 (161 games)
  • t-1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays: 48 (161 games)
  • 3. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels: 46 (155 games)
  • 4. Marcus Semien, Toronto Blue Jays: 45 (162 games)
  • 5. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres: 42 (130 games)

Last season, 19 players hit 35 or more homers, with 13 of the 19 coming from the AL. In addition to Tatis, Adam Duvall, Pete Alonso, Joey Votto, Max Muncy, and 2021 NL MVP Bryce Harper reached the 35-homer mark.

Will most of MLB’s 2022 home run leaders also come from the AL? Even with the universal DH now in place, the odds are skewed in favor of AL sluggers. Of the top 20 players listed at FanDuel Sportsbook, 13 are from the AL.

Who Will Lead MLB in Home Runs in the 2022 Regular Season?

Odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Thursday, April 7, 2022.

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays +800 (2021 American League & MLB co-leader)
  • Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels +1000
  • Pete Alonso, New York Mets +1100
  • Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros +1200
  • Joey Gallo, New York Yankees +1500
  • Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels +1500
  • Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves +1600
  • Aaron Judge, New York Yankees +1700
  • Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies +2000
  • Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox +2500
  • Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies +2500
  • Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox +2500
  • Juan Soto, Washington Nationals +2500
  • Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees +2800
  • Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Guardians +4000
  • Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins +4200
  • Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals +4500 (2021 American League & MLB co-leader)
  • Tyler O’Neill, St. Louis Cardinals +5000
  • Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves +5000
  • Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies +5000
  • Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox +5000

Fernando Tatis Jr., who led the National League with 42 home runs in 2021, is not listed. Tatis broke his left wrist–reportedly in an offseason motorcycle accident in the Dominican Republic–and will likely be sidelined for the first two-plus months of the 2022 MLB season.

2022 Home Run Projections for MLB Betting Favorites (as of April 7, 2022)

ESPN

  • 1. Guerrero: 42
  • 2. Alonso: 41
  • t-3. Ohtani: 40
  • t-3. Olson: 40
  • t-3. Schwarber: 40
  • t-6. Nelson Cruz, DH, Washington Nationals: 39
  • t-6. Matt Chapman, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays: 39
  • t-6. Harper: 39
  • t-9. Reyes: 38
  • t-9. Trout: 38

Alvarez, Perez, and Brandon Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays) are all projected to hit 37 home runs, according to ESPN’s projections.

FanGraphs (ZiPS)

  • 1. Tatis: 44 (in 130 games)
  • 2. Guerrero: 43 (in 156 games)
  • 3. Alonso: 41 (in 151 games)
  • 4. Olson: 40 (in 146 games)
  • 5. Alvarez: 39 (in 145 games)
  • t-6. Gallo: 38 (in 134 games)
  • t-6. Ohtani: 38 (in 151 games)
  • 8. Devers: 37 (in 156 games)
  • 9. Aaron Judge: 36 (in 133 games)
  • t-10. Soto: 35 (in 155 games)
  • t-10. Acuna: 35 (in 123 games)
  • t-10. O’Neill: 35 (in 149 games)

FantasyPros

  • t-1. Guerrero: 41
  • t-1. Olson: 41
  • 3. Alonso: 40
  • 4. Gallo: 39
  • t-5. Judge: 38
  • t-5. Ohtani: 38
  • t-7. Harper: 37
  • t-7. Reyes: 37
  • t-7. Schwarber: 37
  • t-10. Devers: 36
  • t-10. Trout: 36
  • t-10. Alvarez: 36
  • t-10. Perez: 36

2022 MLB Home Run Leader Picks and Best Bets

Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (+800)

The favorite is not always the way to go, but this is one situation where it is. Look at what Guerrero did in his second full MLB season–.311 average, 48 homers, 111 RBI–at the tender age of 22. Provided he isn’t tripped up by injuries, look for him to have another monster year.

Teams can’t really try to pitch around him either, because they can easily get burned by someone else in that deep, dangerous Blue Jays lineup.

By comparison, Vladimir Guerrero Sr. hit .324 with 38 homers and 109 RBI in his second full season back in 1998 with the Montreal Expos. He followed that up by hitting .316 with 42 homers and a career-high 131 RBI in 1999.

Best Value Pick: Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees (+2800)

Stanton played only 41 games and hit just seven homers across the 2019 and 2020 seasons after hitting 38 homers in his first season with the Yankees in 2018.

Last season, he wasn’t hit hard by the injury bug, but he did not hit his 20th homer until August 19, which was his 104th game of the season. He finished the season with 15 homers in his last 36 games and had two streaks in which he homered in four consecutive games.

The key for Stanton is staying healthy and avoiding too many extended skids. He hit more homers in July and August (19) than he did the rest of the season. Combine good health and more consistency, and he has the potential to end up at the top of the home run charts this season.

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