2023 MLB Home Run Leader Odds, Stats, Projections & Picks

The 2023 MLB regular season comes to an end today, and what a season it has been.

From the Baltimore Orioles breaking a division title drought, to the World Series favorite Atlanta Braves deciding that being good all season long is a lot nicer than taking a few months to heat up, to all of the astounding individual exploits at the plate, on the mound, and on the basepaths, it has been an incredible six months on the diamond.

Olson Rides Career Campaign to MLB Home Run Crown

Entering the final day of the regular season, over 22,000 runs have been scored. Many of those runs have crossed the plate as a result of the long ball, as there have been over 5,800 home runs this year.

No team has hit more home runs than the Braves, who are two home runs away from tying the MLB single-season home run record.

Over one-sixth of the 305 home runs that the Braves have hit through 161 games have come off of the bat of first baseman Matt Olson.

Olson has hit more home runs than any other player in the league this season, as well as more than any other player has hit in one season in Braves history.

By leading the entire league in home runs, he has become just the second Brave to lead MLB in homers since the franchise relocated from Milwaukee to Atlanta in 1965.

I don’t get everything right–just look at my NASCAR race winner picks as proof of this–but entering the season, I said in this space that Olson was a good value bet to be MLB home run leader in 2023 after an outstanding spring.

Last season, Olson hit 34 home runs, but he hit only .240 in 616 at-bats, a career-low batting average for a full season. It stood to reason that if he could lift his batting average a decent bit, he could reach a career high in homers.

Lo and behold, Olson is going to finish with a career-best batting average–it stands at .282 entering the final day–and that has led to shattering his previous bests in home runs and RBI. In addition to setting franchise records in both of those categories, he will finish as the MLB leader in both.

2023 MLB Home Run Leaders (Through September 30)

• 1. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves – 54
• 2. Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies – 47
• 3. Pete Alonso, New York Mets – 46
• 4. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels – 44
• 5. Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves – 41
• t6. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers – 39
• t6. Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers – 39
• t8. Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves – 38
• t8. Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox – 38
• t10. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees – 37
• t10. Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves – 37

Shohei Ohtani, who finished with 44 homers in 135 games, missed the Los Angeles Angels’ final 25 games of the season due to a UCL tear. And Aaron Judge, who led MLB last year with an American League-record 62 homers, has missed over 50 games this season after playing in a career-high 157 games in 2022.

Also, Max Muncy, J.D. Martinez, Corey Seager, and Yordan Alvarez, each of whom has hit 30+ homers this season, have all missed 40+ games.

But even if they had all been healthy all season like Olson has been, who’s to say that any of them would have matched or surpassed his numbers? They may not have. Consistency is a big reason for Olson’s success. 

Season Splits for Matt Olson (2023 MLB Regular Season)

• March/April (27 Games): .252, 8 HR, 25 RBI
• May (29 Games): .215, 9 HR, 17 RBI
• June (25 Games): .272, 11 HR, 25 RBI
• July (23 Games): .325, 8 HR, 22 RBI
• August (29 Games): .290, 7 HR, 23 RBI
• September/October (28 Games): .346, 11 HR, 25 RBI

Unlike Judge, who was named AL MVP last year, or Ohtani, who will win AL MVP this season after leading the Junior Circuit in long balls, Olson won’t win NL MVP, because the guy that bats a few spots above him in Atlanta’s lineup has had one of the best individual seasons in baseball history.

But he has had a legendary season in his own right, and at 29, he may have a few more in store.

2023 MLB Home Run Leader Odds

Odds are via BetUS as of Tuesday, August 8, 2023.

• Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves -135
• Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels +115
• Pete Alonso, New York Mets +2000
• Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies +8000
• Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox +10000
• Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers +10000
• Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves +15000
• Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels +125
• Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves +175
• Pete Alonso, New York Mets +650
• Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies +1600
• Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox +2500
• Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves +3300
• Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers +3300

2023 Home Run Projections for MLB Betting Favorites

Numbers are as of Thursday, March 30, 2023.

ESPN

• t1. Judge – 45
• t1. Schwarber – 45
• 3. Trout – 43
• 4. Alonso – 41
• 5. Olson – 40
• t6. Ohtani – 39
• t6. Alvarez – 39
• t8. Guerrero Jr. – 36
• t8. Riley – 36
• t8. Santander – 36

FanGraphs (ZiPS)

• 1. Judge – 46
• 2. Alvarez – 40
• t3. Alonso – 38
• t3. Schwarber – 38
• t5. Olson – 36
• t5. Ohtani – 36
• 7. Riley – 35
• 8. Guerrero Jr. – 34
• 9. Devers – 33
• t10. Trout – 32
• t10. Tellez – 32

FantasyPros

• 1. Judge – 44
• 2. Schwarber – 39
• t3. Alonso – 37
• t3. Trout – 37
• 5. Alvarez – 35
• t6. Guerrero Jr. – 34
• t6. Olson – 34
• t6. Ohtani – 34
• 9. Riley – 33
• t10. Devers – 31
• t10. Tatis – 31

2023 MLB Home Run Leader Preseason Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets

Preseason Odds

• Aaron Judge, New York Yankees +550
• Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies +950
• Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels +1000
• Pete Alonso, New York Mets +1100
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays +1100
• Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros +1100
• Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres +1700
• Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves +1800
• Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels +1900
• Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves +2000
• Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves +2700
• Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees +3400
• Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners +3500
• Juan Soto, San Diego Padres +3500
• Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians +4200
• Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox +4200
• Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox +4500
• Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros +5000
• Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers +5000
• Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins +6000
• Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals +6000
• Manny Machado, San Diego Padres +6500
• Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers +7000
• Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals +8000
• Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates +8000
• Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals +8000
• Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles +8500

Best Bet: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+550)

Going for the favorite might seem like the easy thing to do, but it also makes a lot of sense.

Sure, no one has been the MLB leader in home runs in back-to-back seasons since Jose Bautista in 2010 and 2011. But after missing a significant number of games in 2018, 2019, and 2020 after winning the AL home run crown in 2017, Judge played in 148 and 157 games in the past two seasons. If he can maintain his run of staying healthy, he is good value for money.

I thought long and hard about Trout, whose 40 homers came in only 110 games. But I like Judge a little bit better than Trout, who hasn’t played more than 140 games in a season since 2016.

Best Value Pick: Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (+1800)

In his first season with the Braves, Olson hit only .240, but he hit 34 homers to reach the 30-homer mark for the third time in the last three full MLB seasons.

This year, Olson could be primed for a career year, if his spring training success is an indication of where his confidence is as the season gets underway. In 18 games, he hit .426 (20 of 47) with eight homers and 18 RBI.

This is quite the choice, given that history does not favor Olson at all. Since the franchise relocated from Milwaukee to Atlanta, only one Braves player has led MLB in homers in a season. That was Andruw Jones, who topped the charts in 2005 with 51 round-trippers, three ahead of Alex Rodriguez.

In fact, only four Braves have even led the NL in home runs in a season since the franchise has been in Atlanta: Hank Aaron (1966 and 1967), Dale Murphy (1984 and 1985), Jones, and Marcell Ozuna (2020).

Judge and Olson play for teams who will be popular picks for many bettors throughout the season, as both the Braves and Yankees are expected to seriously contend for the World Series title in 2023.

Where to Bet on MLB

Many of the top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of MLB odds throughout the season. In addition to being able to make daily MLB picks on games from Opening Day until the final game of the Fall Classic, you can also bet on the other major awards (MLB MVP, Cy Young Award, and MLB Rookie of the Year) and World Series odds.

• BetOnline
• Bovada
• Bookmaker
• Sportsbetting.ag

Along with BetUS, where the MLB home run leader odds in this article are from, there are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for MLB betting. The above books are some of the others that we highly recommend.

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.