2023 MLB Home Run Leaders: Odds, Stats, Projections & Picks

For the 11th time in 13 seasons, the player who led MLB in home runs last season came from the American League.

And not only did New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge lead the AL in home runs for the second time in his career, but he set a new AL record with 62 long balls.

Judge was one of four players who went deep 40 or more times last season, with Kyle Schwarber (46), Mike Trout (40), and Pete Alonso (40) also reaching that mark.

All in all, 23 players hit 30 or more home runs in 2022. That was a significant drop-off from 2021, when 43 players hit 30 or more homers.

Of course, the spotlight in the MLB home run leader race was on Judge for most of the season, due to his pursuit of the American League record and how far out ahead of the field he was.

Who will we see lead MLB in home runs this year? Unsurprisingly, Judge tops the odds. Let’s take a look at them.

Who Will Lead MLB in Home Runs in the 2023 Regular Season?

Odds are via FanDuel as of Thursday, March 30, 2023.

• Aaron Judge, New York Yankees +550
• Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies +950
• Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels +1000
• Pete Alonso, New York Mets +1100
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays +1100
• Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros +1100
• Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres +1700
• Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves +1800
• Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels +1900
• Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves +2000
• Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves +2700
• Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees +3400
• Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners +3500
• Juan Soto, San Diego Padres +3500
• Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians +4200
• Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox +4200
• Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox +4500
• Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros +5000
• Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers +5000
• Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins +6000
• Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals +6000
• Manny Machado, San Diego Padres +6500
• Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers +7000
• Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals +8000
• Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates +8000
• Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals +8000
• Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles +8500

2023 Home Run Projections for MLB Betting Favorites

Numbers are as of Thursday, March 30, 2023.

ESPN

• t1. Judge – 45
• t1. Schwarber – 45
• 3. Trout – 43
• 4. Alonso – 41
• 5. Olson – 40
• t6. Ohtani – 39
• t6. Alvarez – 39
• t8. Guerrero Jr. – 36
• t8. Riley – 36
• t8. Santander – 36

FanGraphs (ZiPS)

• 1. Judge – 46
• 2. Alvarez – 40
• t3. Alonso – 38
• t3. Schwarber – 38
• t5. Olson – 36
• t5. Ohtani – 36
• 7. Riley – 35
• 8. Guerrero Jr. – 34
• 9. Devers – 33
• t10. Trout – 32
• t10. Tellez – 32

FantasyPros

• 1. Judge – 44
• 2. Schwarber – 39
• t3. Alonso – 37
• t3. Trout – 37
• 5. Alvarez – 35
• t6. Guerrero Jr. – 34
• t6. Olson – 34
• t6. Ohtani – 34
• 9. Riley – 33
• t10. Devers – 31
• t10. Tatis – 31

2023 MLB Home Run Leader Predictions and Best Bets

Best Bet: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+550)

Going for the favorite might seem like the easy thing to do, but it also makes a lot of sense.

Sure, no one has been the MLB leader in home runs in back-to-back seasons since Jose Bautista in 2010 and 2011. But after missing a significant number of games in 2018, 2019, and 2020 after winning the AL home run crown in 2017, Judge played in 148 and 157 games in the past two seasons. If he can maintain his run of staying healthy, he is good value for money.

I thought long and hard about Trout, whose 40 homers came in only 110 games. But I like Judge a little bit better than Trout, who hasn’t played more than 140 games in a season since 2016.

Best Value Pick: Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (+1800)

In his first season with the Braves, Olson hit only .240, but he hit 34 homers to reach the 30-homer mark for the third time in the last three full MLB seasons.

This year, Olson could be primed for a career year, if his spring training success is an indication of where his confidence is as the season gets underway. In 18 games, he hit .426 (20 of 47) with eight homers and 18 RBI.

This is quite the choice, given that history does not favor Olson at all. Since the franchise relocated from Milwaukee to Atlanta, only one Braves player has led MLB in homers in a season. That was Andruw Jones, who topped the charts in 2005 with 51 round-trippers, three ahead of Alex Rodriguez.

In fact, only four Braves have even led the NL in home runs in a season since the franchise has been in Atlanta: Hank Aaron (1966 and 1967), Dale Murphy (1984 and 1985), Jones, and Marcell Ozuna (2020).

Judge and Olson play for teams who will be popular picks for many bettors throughout the season, as both the Braves and Yankees are expected to seriously contend for the World Series title in 2023.

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