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Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Picks

Progressive Field

In a tight MLB playoff race, missed opportunities throughout the season can loom large when the dust settles. After having one such scenario play out yesterday in Cleveland, the Seattle Mariners will look to bounce back this evening and even their series vs. the Guardians (7:15 p.m. ET, FOX).
In yesterday’s series opener, Seattle (72-63) hit the ground running, scoring four runs in the top of the first. And with George Kirby pitching well, the M&#8217;s were well on their way to making that early advantage stand up.
But after seven stellar innings by Kirby, standout relievers Matt Brash and Andres Munoz could not close out the game. After scoring singles runs in the sixth, seventh, and eighth, the Guardians walked it off with two in the ninth.
As a result, Seattle dropped to three games behind the Houston Astros (75-60) in the AL West. Additionally, they failed to further solidify their hold on at least a wild-card spot.
Tonight, Logan Gilbert will take the hill hoping to even his record for the season and even the series for Seattle, while Cleveland’s Gavin Williams will look to close out an up-and-down month with a strong start at home.
Read on for our Mariners vs. Guardians best bets for tonight and get the best value odds from <a href="/best-online-sportsbooks/">top online sportsbooks</a> such as <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BetOnline</a>.
<h2>Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Pitching Matchup for Today</h2>
<ul>
<li>Seattle Mariners: RHP Logan Gilbert (19 starts, 4-5, 3.69 ERA, 97.2 IP, 138 K/24 BB, 1.03 WHIP, .209 OBA)</li>
<li>Cleveland Guardians: RHP Gavin Williams (26 starts, 8-5, 3.36 ERA, 136.2 IP, 135 K/72 BB, 1.32 WHIP, .215 OBA)</li>
</ul>
<h2>Mariners vs. Guardians Betting Trends</h2>
<h3>Seattle Mariners</h3>
<ul>
<li>The Mariners are 17-19 SU as a road favorite this season.</li>
<li>Seattle is 35-27 (.565) this season in games following a loss. This is second in the AL West, third in the AL, and seventh overall in MLB.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Cleveland Guardians</h3>
<ul>
<li>The Guardians are 37-29 (.561) this season in games following a win. That ranks second in the AL Central, fifth in the AL, and seventh overall in MLB.</li>
<li>However, Cleveland is 11-15 (.423) as a home underdog this season. That ranks 23rd in MLB and is third worst among the 10 teams that have been a home underdog at least 25 times this season.</li>
<li>The Guardians also are 45-53 (.459) in non-division games this season. That is fourth in the AL Central and 24th in MLB.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Mariners vs. Guardians Prediction and Best Bets</h2>
Prediction: Mariners to win
Best Bet #1: <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mariners ML (-136 at BetOnline)</a>
Best Bet #2: <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cleveland Guardians team total under 3.5 runs (-140 at BetOnline)</a>
While the Mariners have not fared well as a road favorite, this is a good spot to back them.
Williams has been solid at Progressive Field, allowing two or fewer runs nine times in 13 starts there this season. And he is 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA in five August starts thanks to great starts against the Twins, Marlins, and Diamondbacks.
However, Seattle has given up four or fewer runs in 14 of Gilbert’s 19 starts this season. This includes six of his seven starts since the All-Star break. That augurs well for a Mariners win in today&#8217;s matchup vs. the Guardians. They have won well over 70% of their games this season when giving up four or fewer runs, including 17 of 22 (77.3%) since the All-Star break. In Gilbert’s starts, they are 10-4 this season when he starts and they give up four or fewer runs.
Seattle also has a strong record in bounce-back spots. After starting 16-17 in that scenario, the Mariners have won 19 of 29 (65.5%) following a loss. 
Yesterday, Seattle hit into three double plays, had Randy Arozarena thrown out trying to stretch a double into a triple in the top of the eight, and had two runners thrown out trying to steal.
But they did at least have 10 hits and were 3 for 5 with runners in scoring position. That is encouraging for a matchup against a pitcher who can be generous with the free passes. Williams has given up multiple walks in 21 of 26 starts and three or more in exactly half of his starts.
Also, the Mariners hit much better on the road (.258) than at home (.224). They also hit much better against right-handed pitchers (.244) than against lefties (.238). So, if Williams misses the zone a few too many times early, he might be made to pay by Cal Raleigh and co.
In contests between two decent teams, like in this Mariners vs. Guardians matchup, road favorites can be tricky. There is certainly a risk here when the Guardians have won three straight and are picking up a little steam as September approaches.
But after throwing away yesterday&#8217;s game, I like the Mariners to get back on the winning track vs. the Guardians behind a quality outing by Gilbert. Gilbert has pitched five-plus innings, allowed six or fewer hits, and given up three or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts.
For a bonus play, taking &#8220;yes&#8221; for first-inning runs would be worth an extra sprinkle. Williams has a first-inning OBA of .196 but has allowed seven homers (of 19 allowed) in the opening frame.
With Arozarena (25 HR), Raleigh (50 HR), and Julio Rodriguez (25 HR) first up for the Mariners, followed by Josh Naylor (16 HR), Eugenio Suarez (42 HR), and Jorge Polanco (21 HR), an early long ball could be in the cards, just as it was last night when Jorge Polanco went deep to cap off the four-run first.

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