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Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Picks

Michelob ULTRA Arena

<p>The first two rounds of the 2025 WNBA playoffs have been a real treat. Now, only two teams remain. Tonight, the first of a historic matchup pitting the Phoenix Mercury vs. the Las Vegas Aces begins at Michelob Ultra Arena (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN).</p>
<p>It is a historic matchup, as it is the first best-of-seven WNBA Finals in the league’s history. It began with a single championship game in the league’s inaugural season in 1997, expanded to a best-of-three series from 1998 to 2004, and was a best-of-five series for the past 20 seasons.</p>
<p>Now, the WNBA is on par with the NBA and NHL as having a seven-game championship series. And what a time for its inception, as the quality of basketball in the regular season and in the postseason has been exceptional.</p>
<p>The Mercury and Aces have been a big part of that, and both teams have earned their place in the championship series.</p>
<p>After winning 27 games in the regular season, Phoenix eliminated last year’s finalists, the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx, to reach the WNBA Finals for the first time since 2021 and the sixth time overall.</p>
<p>The Aces, meanwhile, were mired in mediocrity for two and a half months, and the playoffs were not a certainty. But not only did they make the playoffs, they made it in as the No. 2 seed, and after surviving being taken to the max by the Seattle Storm and Indiana Fever, are looking to close out a rip-roaring run with a third championship in four seasons.</p>
<p>Who will take a 1-0 lead tonight in Las Vegas? Read on for our Mercury vs. Aces Game 1 prediction and best bets and get the best value odds from <a href="/best-online-sportsbooks/">top online sportsbooks</a> such as <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BetOnline</a>.</p>
<h2>Mercury vs. Aces Betting Trends</h2>
<ul>
<li>The Mercury are 9-9 SU and 10-8 ATS as an underdog this season, including 6-6 SU and ATS as a road underdog.</li>
<li>Phoenix is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS this season when an underdog of five or fewer points.</li>
<li>The under is 13-10-2 in the Mercury&#8217;s road games this season.</li>
<li>The under has hit in Phoenix&#8217;s last three games.</li>
<li>Las Vegas is 10-6 SU and 8-7-1 ATS this season when favored by five or fewer points.</li>
<li>The under is 7-3 in the Aces&#8217; last ten home games, including three of their five home games in the playoffs.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Best Bets</h2>
<h3>Prediction: Aces to win</h3>
<p>In the first two rounds and six series in this year’s playoffs, four teams lost Game 1 and went on to win the series.</p>
<p>Two of those belong to the Mercury, who went down 1-0 against both the Liberty and Lynx and came back to advance. Another belongs to the Aces, who advanced after losing the opener to the Fever.</p>
<p>So, whoever loses tonight shouldn’t be too disheartened, especially with the expansion to a seven-game series.</p>
<p>Which team will that be?</p>
<p>Despite finally putting away the Fever after being pushed to the absolute limit by an inspired Indiana team, the Aces did show some vulnerabilities in the semifinals.</p>
<p>A&#8217;ja Wilson (26.0 PPG) and Jackie Young (20.5 PPG) are balling out in the playoffs, but they need help if the Aces are to be successful vs. the Mercury in this series.</p>
<p>And as hard as the Fever were to put away, the Mercury will be even more difficult to dispatch. In the last three games against the Lynx, Phoenix outscored Minnesota 87-43 in the fourth quarter and overtime, enabling them to overcome deficits in all three games to stun the No. 1 seed.</p>
<p>That said, the first four Mercury vs. Aces matchups this season do merit some consideration. Phoenix won the first one at Michelob Ultra Arena on June 15, when Wilson was out due to a concussion. But the Aces won the last three, including an 83-61 rout in the most recent meeting on August 21.</p>
<p>But after such a hard-fought series against the Fever, could the Aces struggle tonight vs. the Mercury much like they did in Game 1 vs. Indiana after a draining Game 3 win over the Seattle Storm.</p>
<p>It is possible, but I’m taking them to rise to the occasion tonight.</p>
<h3>Mercury vs. Aces Best Bets</h3>
<h4>1) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aces -3 (-117 at BetOnline)</a></h4>
<p>I do think we will see a reasonably close game this evening, but if you are backing the Aces, the percentages favor a cover.</p>
<p>Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, only four of 20 games were decided by three or fewer points. And of the Aces’ 37 wins this season, only six have been by three or fewer points.</p>
<p>So, if they do win, it will likely be by at least the margin required to cover the spread.</p>
<h4>2) Jackie Young Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (<a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/bovada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">-115 at Bovada</a>) 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (<a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/bovada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">+105 at Bovada</a>)</h4>
<p>For Game 5 vs. the Fever, I backed Young to go over 16.5 points and over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists. She did both by some distance, scoring 32 points and adding a dime of dimes and four rebounds.</p>
<p>While her points total is a tick lower tonight, the overall PRA is a couple of ticks higher, which is no surprise when Young has recorded 19 assists in her last two games.</p>
<p>I’m off of her points tonight, but I’m happy to stick with her PRA, as the Aces need her to keep rolling to survive vs. the Mercury. I could see a 15-point, nine-assist, five-rebound game from her.</p>
<p>Young has scored 16+ points 29 times (in 52 games) this season, including six times in eight playoff games, but she has yet to score 16+ points in four consecutive games this season. So, I see boards and assists doing some heavy lifting tonight.</p>
<h4>3) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/bovada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alyssa Thomas Over 16.5 Points (+110 at Bovada)</a></h4>
<p>Thomas’s high for points vs. the Aces this season is 17, which she hit when the Mercury lost by 22 in Vegas in August.</p>
<p>But she has scored 17+ points in each of her last five games, including consecutive 20+ point games to go ahead of and close out the Lynx at home. At these odds, I’m all too happy to take her to keep it going.</p>
<h4>4) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/luckyrebel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Satou Sabally to Score 20+ Points (+200 at Lucky Rebel)</a></h4>
<p>Taking advantage of value is also at the forefront of this play. Sabally has done this twice against the Aces this season, scoring 22 points in the June win at Michelob Ultra Arena and 26 in an 86-83 loss at PHX Arena on August 15.</p>
<p>She also scored 20+ in each of the Mercury’s three wins over the Lynx and put up 23 in the Game 3 win over the Liberty in the first round. With this and the fact that she has had 5+ rebounds in six of seven playoff games thus far both in mind, the over 23.5 for her points + rebounds (which is +105 at Bovada) is also worth a look.</p>
<h2>Other WNBA Betting Content</h2>
<p>Betting News extensively covers the WNBA, providing best bets and <a href="/wnba/picks/">WNBA picks</a> daily for matchups such as Fever vs. Aces, analysis of key storylines from a betting perspective, and more.</p>
<p>Are you new to betting on the WNBA? Check out our updated <a href="/sports-betting-guides/wnba-betting-guide/">WNBA betting guide</a>. It covers a lot of basic information about the league, how to bet on it, and betting tools and resources that can enhance your chances of a successful season betting on the WNBA.</p>
<p>Several of our <a href="/sports-betting-guides/">sports betting guides</a> are also handy resources for WNBA bettors. This includes our guide to <a href="/sports-betting-guides/futures-bets/">futures bets</a>, our breakdowns of <a href="/sports-betting-guides/line-movement/">line movement</a> and <a href="/sports-betting-guides/line-shopping/">line shopping</a>, and our <a href="/sports-betting-guides/moneyline-vs-spread-betting/">comparison of moneyline and spread betting</a>.</p>
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