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Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Picks

Michelob ULTRA Arena

Over the last several days, the Las Vegas Aces have boosted their burgeoning hopes for a top-three seed in the <a href="/wnba/">WNBA</a> playoffs with three wins over fellow contenders, including a victory at Phoenix last Friday. Tonight brings a Mercury vs. Aces rematch at Michelob Ultra Arena (10:00 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video), which could see the winner end tonight no worse than third.
Entering tonight, Las Vegas (22-14) and Phoenix (21-13) sit just a half-game behind Atlanta (22-13) and New York (22-13) in the standings. And though it is highly unlikely that the Liberty will lose at home to the 8-26 Sky, if tonight’s Lynx vs. Dream matchup goes the way of the league’s best team, the winner of this matchup will end tonight ahead of Atlanta in third.
Who will emerge victorious at Michelob Ultra Arena? Read on for our Mercury vs. Aces prediction and best bets. Which <a href="/best-online-sportsbooks/">top online sportsbooks</a> offer the best value for our top <a href="/wnba/picks/">WNBA picks</a>? Find out below.
<h2>Mercury vs. Aces Betting Trends</h2>
<ul>
<li>The Mercury are 18-15-1 against the spread this season, including 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games.</li>
<li>Phoenix is 10-7 SU and 8-8-1 ATS on the road thus far this season, including 4-4 SU and ATS as a road underdog.</li>
<li>The Aces are only 18-18 against the spread this season, but they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games.</li>
<li>Las Vegas is 13-5 SU and 8-9-1 ATS at home this season, including 13-3 SU and 8-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.</li>
<li>Overall, the Aces are 20-7 SU and 14-12-1 ATS as a favorite this season.</li>
<li>The over is 8-4 in the Aces’ last 12 games and 7-3 in their last 10 home games.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Best Bets</h2>
What can be said about A’ja Wilson that hasn’t been said already? With 32 points and 12 rebounds in Tuesday’s win, she recorded her sixth double-double in the Aces’ eight-game win streak. Now, she is averaging a double-double for the season, entering tonight at 22.9 PPG and 10.0 RPG.
With Napheesa Collier returning tonight, Wilson&#8217;s WNBA MVP charge may slow somewhat. But she has given herself a real shot by willing the Aces past multiple fellow high seed hopefuls.
Her hot run should continue tonight, given her performances in the first two Mercury vs. Aces matchups this season. Last Friday, she had 30 points and 16 rebounds in an 86-83 win, one of four 30-point games in her last five games. And in the Aces’ 84-81 win in Phoenix on June 29, she had 26 points, 18 rebounds, and seven assists.
The Mercury can win even if A’ja goes off again but need a big night from their own MVP hopeful. That didn’t happen in either of the previous head-to-head contests. Many nights, 15 points, nine assists, and six rebounds and 16 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds will be enough. But you have to feel like Phoenix will need more if they are to win in Vegas.
That said, even with the prospect of a big game for Thomas, ride with the hot hand here. A’ja and the Aces are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, and they will keep it going tonight to secure a season sweep vs. the Mercury.
Mercury vs. Aces Prediction: Aces to win
Mercury vs. Aces Best Bets: 1) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aces ML (-119 at BetOnline)</a> 2) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/bovada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A&#8217;ja Wilson over 24.5 points (-105 at Bovada)</a> 3) A&#8217;ja Wilson to score 30+ points (+275 at Bovada)
<h2>Other WNBA Betting Content</h2>
Betting News extensively covers the WNBA, providing expert picks for many of the league’s top matchups, analysis of key storylines from a betting perspective, and more.
Are you new to betting on the WNBA? Check out our updated <a href="/sports-betting-guides/wnba-betting-guide/">WNBA betting guide</a>. It covers a lot of basic information about the league, how to bet on it, and betting tools and resources that can enhance your chances of a successful season betting on the WNBA.
Several of our <a href="/sports-betting-guides/">sports betting guides</a> are also handy resources for WNBA bettors. This includes our guide to <a href="/sports-betting-guides/futures-bets/">futures bets</a>, our breakdowns of <a href="/sports-betting-guides/line-movement/">line movement</a> and <a href="/sports-betting-guides/line-shopping/">line shopping</a>, and our <a href="/sports-betting-guides/moneyline-vs-spread-betting/">comparison of moneyline and spread betting</a>.
Also, check out our streams and social media channels for even more WNBA betting insight.
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