Covers

Dratings

DunkelIndex

OddsShark

VSiN

Moneyline

Total

Point Spread

Away/Home

Wins

Ov / Un

Liberty

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton

Breanna Stewart

Brianna Fraser

Courtney Vandersloot

Emma Meesseman

Esmery Martinez

Isabelle Harrison

Ivana Dojkic

Jaylyn Sherrod

Jessika Carter

Jonquel Jones

Kayla Thornton

Kennedy Burke

Leonie Fiebich

Marine Johannès

Marquesha Davis

Natasha Cloud

Nyara Sabally

Okako Adika

Rebekah Gardner

Rita Igbokwe

Sabrina Ionescu

Stephanie Mawuli

Stephanie Talbot

Mercury

Alexa Held

Alexis Prince

Alyssa Thomas

Amy Atwell

Ariel Hearn

Bella Murekatete

Brittney Griner

Celeste Taylor

Charisma Osborne

Christyn Williams

DeWanna Bonner

Diana Taurasi

Haley Jones

Jaz Shelley

Kahleah Copper

Kalani Brown

Kathryn Westbeld

Kiana Williams

Kitija Laksa

Lexi Held

Liz Dixon

Megan McConnell

Mikiah Herbert Harrigan

Monique Akoa Makani

Monique Billings

Morgan Bertsch

Murjanatu Musa

Mya Hollingshed

Natasha Mack

Rebecca Allen

Sami Whitcomb

Satou Sabally

Sevgi Uzun

Sophie Cunningham

Sug Sutton

Away/Home Defense

Away/Home Offense

Defense

Offense

New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Picks

PHX Arena

<p>The road to a repeat has been paved with injuries and ups and downs in performance for the New York Liberty. Still, the Liberty enter their first-round playoff series vs. the Phoenix Mercury as one of the top title favorites, and a Game 1 win in Phoenix (5:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) would serve as a real statement of intent for the defending champs.</p>
<p>Both the Liberty and Mercury finished 27-17 in the regular season, but while that was a so-so season for the fifth-seeded Liberty after consecutive 30-win seasons, it marked a return to relevance for the fourth-seeded Mercury.</p>
<p>Phoenix said goodbye to franchise fixtures Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi after last season, and the off-season acquisitions of Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas and an in-season reunion with DeWanna Bonner helped the Mercury post a winning season for the first time since 2021.</p>
<p>That was the team’s eighth and final season with 2014 title-winning coach Sandy Brondello, who led the Liberty to the franchise’s first title last season.</p>
<p>Losing Betnijah Laney-Hamilton for the season and seeing Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones all miss several games hampered New York’s hopes of landing a more favorable road to a repeat.</p>
<p>But the talent that the Liberty possess is why <a href="/best-online-sportsbooks/">top online sportsbooks</a> such as <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BetOnline</a> view them as one of the teams to beat and the favorite to win this series vs. the Mercury.</p>
<p>Can they prove those odds right out of the gate with a win in Phoenix? Read on for our Liberty vs. Mercury prediction and best bets.</p>
<h2>Liberty vs. Mercury Betting Trends</h2>
<ul>
<li>In the regular season, the Liberty were 10-12 SU and 4-17-1 ATS on the road.</li>
<li>New York was 9-4 SU and 4-9 ATS as a road favorite in the regular season.</li>
<li>The Liberty were 4-16-1 ATS in their final 21 regular season games.</li>
<li>The under was 13-3-1 in the Liberty&#8217;s last 17 regular season games.</li>
<li>Phoenix was 6-7 SU and 7-6 ATS as an underdog this season.</li>
<li>The under was 17-6-1 in Phoenix&#8217;s last 24 regular season games, including 8-2 in their last 10 games.</li>
<li>The under hit in eight of the Mercury&#8217;s last nine home games in the regular season.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Liberty vs. Mercury Game 1 Prediction and Best Bets</h2>
<h3>Prediction: Mercury to win</h3>
<p>I can see where oddsmakers are coming from in giving the Liberty the edge, but the Mercury had their number in the regular season, winning three of four head-to-head matchups.</p>
<p>It also can&#8217;t be overlooked that the Liberty are just one of two playoff teams that finished under .500 on the road. Yes, there were a lot of instances in which they were without one star or another, but they were overall just unable to sustain their hot start to the season.</p>
<p>If we see the best of New York, the sky is certainly the limit for them. But Phoenix didn&#8217;t luck its way into the No. 4 seed. They earned it, and they have the horses to handle this moment. You never know what players do and don&#8217;t read, but they might well feel a little disrespected that they are an underdog here despite having dominated the Liberty in the regular season and owning homecourt advantage in the series.</p>
<h3>Liberty vs. Mercury Best Bets</h3>
<h4>1) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mercury ML (+110 at BetOnline)</a></h4>
<p>The disrespect angle might be an optimistic (but reasonable) one, but this Mercury team is good enough to not need that extra little bit to push them over vs. the Liberty.</p>
<h4>2) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/luckyrebel/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Liberty/Mercury Over 164.5 (-110 at Everygame)</a></h4>
<p>The trends heavily favor the under, and though I don&#8217;t like betting the under in almost any capacity, it is healthy to step outside of your comfort zone from time to time,</p>
<p>I won&#8217;t be doing that here, however. Three of the four regular season meetings between the Liberty and Mercury went over this number, and in the only one that didn&#8217;t (Phoenix&#8217;s 80-63 win at home on August 30), New York was without Sabrina Ionescu.</p>
<p>Playoff openers can be tense and sloppy, but there&#8217;s a lot of offensive talent on both sides in this Liberty vs. Mercury matchup and I think we&#8217;ll see some scoring today.</p>
<h4>3) <a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/bovada/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alyssa Thomas Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120 at Bovada)</a></h4>
<p>In the four Liberty vs. Mercury meetings in the regular season, Thomas averaged 17.3 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 9.8 APG and went over this number three times. Look for a big game from her, and +280 for a triple-double is worth a sprinkle as well with that in mind.</p>
<h2>Other WNBA Betting Content</h2>
<p>Betting News extensively covers the WNBA, providing best bets and <a href="/wnba/picks/">WNBA picks</a> daily for the league’s top matchups, analysis of key storylines from a betting perspective, and more.</p>
<p>Are you new to betting on the WNBA? Check out our updated <a href="/sports-betting-guides/wnba-betting-guide/">WNBA betting guide</a>. It covers a lot of basic information about the league, how to bet on it, and betting tools and resources that can enhance your chances of a successful season betting on the WNBA.</p>
<p>Several of our <a href="/sports-betting-guides/">sports betting guides</a> are also handy resources for WNBA bettors. This includes our guide to <a href="/sports-betting-guides/futures-bets/">futures bets</a>, our breakdowns of <a href="/sports-betting-guides/line-movement/">line movement</a> and <a href="/sports-betting-guides/line-shopping/">line shopping</a>, and our <a href="/sports-betting-guides/moneyline-vs-spread-betting/">comparison of moneyline and spread betting</a>.</p>
<p>Also, check out our streams and social media channels for even more WNBA betting insight.</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://twitter.com/YourBettingNews">Betting News on “X”/Twitter</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.twitch.tv/bettingnews">Betting News on Twitch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@yourbettingnews?lang=en">Betting News on TikTok</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@YourBettingNews">Betting News on YouTube</a></li>
</ul>


Phoenix Mercury star Alyssa Thomas - New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury Game 1 Prediction & Best Bets (9/14/2025)

Liberty vs. Mercury Game 1 Prediction & Best Bets: Will New York Rise in Phoenix?

WNBA: Aces vs. Mercury Game 4 Picks and Odds | October 10, 2025

WNBA: Aces vs. Mercury Game 3 Picks and Odds | October 8, 2025

WNBA: Mercury vs. Aces Game 2 Picks and Odds | October 5, 2025

The Las Vegas Aces celebrate - Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces WNBA Finals Game 1 Prediction & Best Bets (10/3/2025)

Mercury vs. Aces WNBA Finals Game 1 Prediction & Best Bets (10/3): Who Will Strike First in Vegas?

Las Vegas Aces star and four-time WNBA MVP A'ja Wilson - Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces Game 5 Prediction & Best Bets (9/30/2025)

Fever vs. Aces Game 5 Prediction & Best Bets (9/30): Can Indiana Turn Sin City Into Sad City?