NFL Week 7 Matchups & Prop Watch: Big Numbers for Burrow in Baltimore and Domination in the Desert for 7-0 Cardinals
There are not a lot of strong matchups in Week 7, and sometimes that can make finding NFL betting values a little more difficult. The Bills, Chargers, and Cowboys are on a bye this week, and so are the surging Steelers and Vikings, who both won two straight to enter their bye at 3-3.
With a number of notable teams not in action and a lack of must-watch and must-bet matchups, the prop markets should get a lot of love this week. Plucking a nugget or two from an otherwise dull slate of action can help you build a winning day even if you don’t jump on too many sides or totals.
All NFL betting lines listed are via FanDuel Sportsbook.
NFL Betting Matchup: New York Jets vs New England Patriots, 1:00 p.m. ET
If you are looking for offense then this is not the game for you. Two rookie quarterbacks collide in this one against defense-first head coaches. The first team to 10 points probably wins.
Prop to Bet: Jonnu Smith Over 18.5 Yards Receiving
TE Hunter Henry has been growing his role in the offense, but just when you think the Patriots are going to zig they will zag. Smith is just as talented and they invested in him this offseason too. He should be able to get free for a couple of catches to cash this over.
NFL Betting Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens, 1:00 p.m. ET
This game is suddenly more meaningful than expected with the Bengals only a game behind the Ravens in the AFC North. Does Cincinnati have the ability to slow down Lamar Jackson? Can they keep up?
Prop to Bet: Joe Burrow over 262.5 Yards Passing
The strength of the Bengals is their offense and confidence in Burrow. The lines say they will be losing and will have to play catchup against Baltimore. I think it could be a pretty close game, but that does not mean the QB is not going to throw the ball. He has been over this total in each of the last three weeks and there is no reason to fade that streak.
NFL Betting Matchup: Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins, 1:00 p.m. ET
This is a dreg of a game, that’s for sure. I was down on Miami coming into the season because I don’t believe in Tua. Apparently, neither does the team. I never thought they would lose to Jacksonville in London though. They are underdogs at home, which is never a good look.
Prop to Bet: Kyle Pitts Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)
The Falcons are finally figuring out how to use their best offensive weapon. I am sure Miami is going to pay him extra attention, which is why I am going with the catches prop. The Falcons have to get the ball in his hands to give themselves a chance, and Matt Ryan can force it if need be. In four of five games he has had at least four catches, so we don’t need a huge bump.
NFL Betting Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans, 1:00 p.m. ET
This is the game to watch in the early time slot on Sunday. Two playoff-bound teams meet in Nashville, with the Titans high on confidence after beating Buffalo on Monday night. Is the short week enough to take some of the thunder out of Derrick Henry’s running? Maybe it is the only thing that can.
Prop to Bet: Derrick Henry Under 120.5 Yards Rushing
I know this feels blasphemous, fading an unstoppable force. I think the Chiefs are going to do the logical thing, which is to really load up to stop the run and force Ryan Tannehill to win the game for Tennessee. They are not going to shut down Henry, but as long as he does not break a long run they hold him around 100 yards. It happens sometimes.
NFL Betting Matchup: Washington Football Team vs Green Bay Packers, 1:00 p.m. ET
Green Bay is building, and Aaron Rodgers is looking better and better. That is only half the reason they are such heavy favorites against Washington though. The other is that Washington's defense has not been nearly as good as expected. Even Rodgers struggles against pressure if WFT can provide it.
Prop to Bet: Antonio Gibson Over 51.5 Yards Rushing
It is getting harder and harder to find props with no vig unless you are betting alternative lines. I like this one because Washington always wants to be balanced. They do not want Taylor Heinicke trying to do too much either, so look for more traditional running plays this week. Green Bay’s rushing defense is only slightly above average, ranking 13th in the league.
NFL Betting Matchup: Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants, 1:00 p.m. ET
Carolina has definitely fallen from being a league darling in the first month of the season. Their defense looks real though, and they have done the rare thing of improving via acquisition mid-season. The home side does not look to be in any kind of form to compete in this matchup.
Prop to Bet: Carolina Panthers Over 22.5 Points
The Panthers are not an elite team, but they should have no trouble beating this team point total against the Giants. Their defense should set them up with some short fields, and they are committed to running the ball more so fewer three-and-out drives. This is not an elite offense you want to back every week, but they can put points on the board this week.
NFL Betting Matchup: Detroit Lions vs Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m. ET
The Lions have certainly adopted their coach's fiery attitude. This game looks like a rout, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Detroit is able to look more respectable than you would think. That is about all you can really expect.
Prop to Bet: Sony Michel to score a TD
The Rams should be able to name their score in this one. So far they have not really gotten much out of Michel, but I think this is the game. It might come in garbage time, but I think they are going to focus on him being a bigger part of things.
NFL Betting Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles vs Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m. ET
The Raiders were impressive last week, seemingly moving past the “Jon Gruden stuff” with ease and winning at Denver. How long before they crash though? Philadelphia basically announced they are giving up on the season when they traded TE Zach Ertz.
Prop to Bet: Devonta Smith over 57.5 Yards Receiving
Clearing out Ertz creates opportunities for Dallas Goedert, but that is the obvious play. I like Hurts to continue connecting with his old Alabama teammate. It seems like he is always open and just about to break a big play. This is the week.
NFL Betting Matchup: Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Bears nipped the Bucs last season. That would be an even bigger surprise this year with the team on the road and using a rookie quarterback. Tom Brady and all of his weapons vs. Justin Fields. This one seems unlikely to be close.
Prop to Bet: Justin Fields Over 216.5 Yards Passing (-115)
Fields has burned me before, but this spot looks good. Tampa is going to be winning the whole time but just as importantly, they are great at run defense and bad against the pass. Playing with the lead they will be happy to give up empty yards and stiffen in the red zone. That is what they do.
NFL Betting Matchup: Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET
This is the biggest mismatch on the board this week. Arizona is still undefeated, but they were lulled to sleep when they played Jacksonville earlier in the season. They won that game but were losing early. Just saying.
Prop to Bet: Arizona Over 33.5 Points
This feels like a square play, but I don’t see the Texans being able to stop the Cardinals all that much. Plus their own offensive ineptitude will give Arizona plenty of chances. We might have to wait until late in the game to feel totally comfortable, but Arizona heats up and when they do, look out.
NFL Betting Matchup: Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m. ET (Sunday Night Football)
San Francisco is off a bye and should be healthier this week than they have been in some time. Jimmy G is back at quarterback, and with some extra time to gameplan the San Francisco offense is likely to be in good form.
Prop to Bet: San Francisco 49ers over 23.5 points
The Colts are not what they were a year ago. San Francisco is rested and prepared, and I expect they will come out sharp in this one. Look for them to score on their first two drives and have this one close to covered by halftime.
NFL Betting Matchup: New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks, 8:15 p.m. ET (Monday Night Football)
These are two teams that have a lot of question marks right now. For Seattle, they are trying to navigate without Russell Wilson. In New Orleans, they are trying to get closer to the way they looked in that win over Green Bay in Week 1.
Prop to Bet: Geno Smith over 207.5 Yards Passing
Even without Wilson, the Seahawks' best chance of winning is still with airing out the ball and hoping for the best. Smith might throw a pick or two, but he has the weapons to rack up some yards as well.
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