Bills vs. Chiefs Betting: Top two title contenders collide in K.C.

Eddie Griffin

It may only be Week 6, but one of the most important games of the NFL season will take place on Sunday as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

Ahead of their mega matchup, Buffalo and Kansas City are the top two favorites to win Super Bowl LVII, and Allen and Mahomes are the top two NFL MVP favorites.

Current Super Bowl LVII and NFL MVP Odds

Odds are via FanDuel.

Odds to Win Super Bowl LVII

  • Buffalo Bills +370
  • Kansas City Chiefs +650
  • Philadelphia Eagles +700
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +950
  • San Francisco 49ers +1300
  • Baltimore Ravens +1500
  • Green Bay Packers +1500
  • Minnesota Vikings +2000
  • Dallas Cowboys +2000
  • Los Angeles Chargers +2100
  • Los Angeles Rams +2300

NFL MVP Odds

  • Josh Allen +175
  • Patrick Mahomes +400
  • Lamar Jackson +550
  • Jalen Hurts +600
  • Justin Herbert +1600
  • Tom Brady +3000
  • Derek Carr, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow – all at +4000

If the Bills get the better of the Chiefs, the distance between themselves and the field and between Allen and the field will likely increase, while a win for Mahomes and the home team will tighten things up, at the very least.

Beyond the impact on the odds, the winner of this matchup will have the head-to-head tiebreaker.

That advantage is one that could prove to be very valuable come January. The Chiefs have hosted the AFC Championship Game a record four straight times, and a win on Sunday will significantly enhance their chances of extending that record.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Buffalo Bills (4-1, 2-1 away, 1st in the AFC East) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-1, 2-0 home, 1st in the AFC West)
  • Venue & Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
  • Date: Sunday, October 16, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:25 p.m. Eastern Time (3:25 p.m. local time)
  • How to Watch Bills vs. Chiefs: CBS

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

  • Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-118)
  • Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 (-104)

Over/Under

  • Over 53.5 (-115)
  • Under 53.5 (-105)

Moneyline

  • Buffalo Bills -142
  • Kansas City Chiefs +120

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Betting Picks

Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs to win

Bills vs. Chiefs Picks: Bills ML (Best Value: -135 at Caesars Sportsbook) & Bills team total over (Best Value: over 27.5 @ -116 at FanDuel)

In both of their first two home games this season, the Chiefs came back to win after trailing by double digits.

Against the Chargers in Week 2, they trailed 17-7 but rallied for a 27-24 win.

Then this past Monday night against the Raiders, they trailed 17-0 but rallied for a 30-29 win in a finish that featured two questionable–and unsuccessful–two-point conversion attempts.

That is not a position they will want to find themselves against the Bills, who won 38-20 in Kansas City in Week 5 last season.

Can Kansas City keep Allen from having a monster game? Or, better yet, can they win even if Allen has a monster game?

They didn’t slow him down much in either meeting last season, but after getting torched for 374 total yards and four touchdowns in the regular season, they were able to win the meeting that mattered most in the postseason despite Allen’s 397 yards and four scores.

Allen’s only subpar performance as a passer thus far this season was against the Ravens in Week 4, and he offset that by rushing for 70 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries.

So, it is fair to say that the Chiefs will be up against a pretty stiff challenge.

However, the real key to the outcome in this matchup is whether or not the Chiefs can execute their ideal offensive gameplan.

It’s entirely possible that Mahomes goes out there and chucks it all over the field all afternoon and evening but having some semblance of balance has become increasingly more important for Kansas City.

Game-by-Game Rushing Statistics for the Kansas City Chiefs

  • Cardinals (away): 27 attempts, 128 yards (4.7 yards per attempt)
  • Chargers (home): 18 attempts, 93 yards (5.2 yards per attempt)
  • Colts (away): 23 attempts, 58 yards (2.5 yards per attempt)
  • Bucs (away): 37 attempts, 189 yards (5.1 yards per attempt)
  • Raiders (home): 23 attempts, 103 yards (4.5 yards per attempt)

A lack of balance hurt Kansas City in the Week 3 loss against the Colts, as they were held to just 58 rushing yards on 23 attempts (2.5 yards per attempt).

If they have to play from behind or can’t generate much on the ground, it could be a long day. More than the holes they found themselves in against the Chargers and Raiders, their struggles in Indianapolis foretell the frustrations they might face against Buffalo.

The Bills are one of the league’s best teams against the run, ranking third in fewest yards allowed per carry, second in fewest yards allowed per game, and haven’t allowed a run over 18 yards, which is tops in the league.

Ultimately, that is what tips the scales for me in this matchup.

Not being able to run the ball at least serviceably will hurt the Chiefs offensively and force their defense to be on the field far more than they would like to be.

Betting against Mahomes at home is something I’m not doing lightly, but I am backing Buffalo to leave Kansas City with an impressive and important win.

More Bills vs. Chiefs Content on Betting News

More NFL Week 6 Content on Betting News

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.