When the Mets decided to trade for starting pitcher Marcus Stroman at the deadline without dealing Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler, much of the baseball world scratched its collective head. Many experts deduced that the move must have been a play for next season.
New York was 50-55 with a six-game gap sitting between it and the second National League Wild Card spot, after all.
Now, the Mets look poised to have the last laugh. With the likes of Stroman (6-11, 3.07 ERA), Jacob deGrom (7-7, 2.77 ERA), Syndergaard (8-5, 3.96 ERA), and Wheeler (9-6, 4.20 ERA), the Mets are the hottest team in baseball.
Before looking at the ever-changing odds for the NL New York club to accomplish the impossible, let’s take a look at where they stand.
Where the Surging Mets Stand
After Wednesday’s 7-2 victory over the Marlins, the Mets find themselves in the midst of a six-game win streak. Separated by a single loss to the Pirates, the Mets ripped off a seven-game win streak from the end of July to the beginning of August.
Those runs come together to make up a record of 13-1 over their last 14, part of a 19-6 record since the All-Star break. The Mets still trail the NL East-leading Braves (68-48) by 8.5 games, but with a record of 59-56, New York is now tied with St. Louis (58-55) at just a half-game back of the Phillies (59-55) and Brewers (60-56), both of whom occupy the second Wild Card spot. The Nationals (61-53) are currently two ahead of Philly and Milwaukee with control over the first Wild Card spot.
On July 25, the Mets had less than a 5 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to projections. On Aug. 1 and on the back of the seven-game win streak, those chances jumped to 21 percent. Now, it’s hard to see the surging Mets getting left out of postseason baseball.
Of course, an improbable run like the one the Mets are experiencing wouldn’t be possible without some impressive stats.
New York According to the Numbers
Throughout their current six-game win streak, the Mets have scored a total of 43 runs. Those numbers have helped to vault New York into the 16th spot in the majors for runs scored in 2019.
The New York lineup has enjoyed some quality performances from the likes of Jeff McNeil, who’s batting .339 with 29 doubles and 15 home runs, and Pete Alonso, who leads the club with 37 dingers and 83 RBI.
And since the All-Star break, New York’s 134 runs scored has made them the ninth-best offense in that period. But while the bats have certainly picked up in the second half of the season, it’s the team’s pitching that’s been most impressive lately.
After the All-Star Game, the Mets’ staff has earned the second-best ERA (2.77) in the majors, trailing only Cleveland.
Now, the arms and bats seem to be coming together for the New York club that’s flying up the standings and turning what looked like an impossibility into something real.
What the Odds Say About the Mets
On July 28, when New York was sporting that mediocre record of 50-55, the Mets were sitting on 500-1 odds to win the World Series. Now, the Metropolitans have cut those odds to just 50-1 to win it all.
Sure, New York is still behind a dozen other teams when it comes to World Series odds, but just making the playoffs felt like it would take a miracle only a few weeks ago. Now, the Mets have a legitimate shot at contending for the NL pennant and World Series; they have a legitimate shot at the amazing.
Tied with the Athletics on 50-1 odds, the Mets are still behind the likes of Milwaukee (40-1), Philly (40-1), St. Louis (30-1), and several other squads. Yet even with the Astros (+200) and Dodgers (+250) still miles ahead according to the odds, Mets fans can finally say they have a shot at winning in 2019.