Best Bets to Throw the Most TDs
This is always one of the most interesting NFL props on the board because it is not just about who is the best quarterback. The best QB doesn’t always finish with the most TD passes, as game script and plain old luck can often have a big impact. Great quarterbacks also often display good efficiency, which doesn’t necessarily translate to more touchdown passes.
For a great example, just look at the 2019 stats. Last year, Lamar Jackson had a monster season, leading the league with 36 TD passes, while also putting up huge running numbers on his way to a league MVP. Second in the league in touchdown tosses was Jameis Winston. He had 33, but since he paired that with 30 interceptions, he is no longer even a starting quarterback in the league. TD passes aren’t everything.
In examining this future wager, you have to keep in mind both talent and opportunity. Here are some players and odds that have my attention.
Patrick Mahomes +450
Mahomes is the easiest and most obvious choice here. The Kansas City offense is considered the best in the league and the passing attack is the most lethal part of it. Receivers like Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill can score on any play and TE Travis Kelce is probably the best at his position in the game. Mahomes had a monster year in his first season as a starter but his TD numbers were more average last season. He also missed time with injury. One thing to consider is that the Chiefs have a new running back they like, so maybe some short yardage opportunities won’t be passing situations anymore. Also a factor could be what happens when the Chiefs clinch playoff positioning well in advance of end of the season. They also may be leading in a bunch of games, which could mean more running game. I don’t think this bet is worth the odds you’re getting.
Matt Ryan +800
The Falcons were very explosive in the first game of the season and Matt Ryan threw for more than 400 yards, but their struggles in the Red Zone have been well documented since they lost in the Super Bowl a few years back. Somehow Calvin Ridley has been scoring more touchdowns than Julio Jones since coming into the NFL, but a lot of those have been of the home run variety. Jones appears to be the perfect red zone target with his size and amazing catch radius, but it just hasn’t been that way the last few seasons. This is a pass first offense and that is not going to change though. The runnings backs have not vultured a lot of touchdowns recently either, so this may still be a good bet.
Drew Brees +1300
Drew Brees is one of the most prolific passers in the history of the game. Four times in his career he has led the NFL in touchdown passes, though not since 2012. Every season the Saints have one of the best passing attacks in the league though and this year appears to be no different. Brees threw a couple of touchdowns in the opening game and is generally good for a couple each week, though he only put up one in week 2. The the only downside of this pick is that New Orleans is one of the better teams in the league and is often playing from ahead. As a result, there is not always the same urgency that there is with other players, who can increase their stats during meaningless action. Sometimes the players with the best numbers are padding them in garbage time, but they still count when you cash your ticket.
Russell Wilson +1800
Through a couple of games Wilson is leading the NFL in TD passes with 9. One of the most recognizable players in the game, he probably does not get enough credit for the numbers he has put up in his career. Last year he was among league leaders with 31 TD passes, and the year before he had a career high 35. Though his pace is likely to slow, there is no doubt he should be among the leaders at the end of the season. The price on this has come down for sure but with a lead already you might win it anyway, or create some nice hedging opportunities. Nothing wrong with taking a good bet even if you could have gotten a better number before.
Deshawn Watson +2200
Watson is a tough call because unlike the others, he is not in what I would consider an elite offense. However, he is in an offense that is all about the quarterback. Whether it is the play that has been called or Watson improvising, the Texans need Watson to be creative and get the ball in the end zone. He is great at extending plays with his athleticism and those often lead to scores. On top of this, it seems like the Texans are always playing from behind too. He has not gotten off to a great start with just a couple of TDs through the first couple of weeks, but they are really going to need him, so he will get lots of opportunities. He is a long shot for sure but he will have at least one hot stretch that could make it possible. Odds are he plays in all his games too, as Houston will not be clinching a playoff spot with two or even one week to go.